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It's a chilly start to the new week but there is a nice warm up in store the rest of the week here in central New York. Here's what's happening.
There is a trough of low pressure sitting over the eastern US right now. This trough is associated with some pretty chilly air and we expect our temperatures to remain about 10 degrees below normal. Down south, where the growing season has begun, there are frost and freeze warnings out Monday morning. However, there will be a rather dramatic change unfolding over the next few days.
That trough of low pressure will pull out and move to our east. In it's place, high pressure aloft (a ridge) will build into the east and temperatures will respond quickly, going from 40s today to near 70 by as early Wednesday. The good news is that once the ridge moves in it won't be in a hurry to leave. That's why we think most of the week will be dry. Our next chance for precipitation, and it's not a great chance, comes late Friday as a cold front approaches from the north. That means it's going to be moisture starved. Since the ground is still pretty saturated across central New York, this stretch of dry weather comes at a good time. The April sunshine and eventually a stregthening southwest wind will combine to create ideal drying conditions.
Jim
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As I mentioned in my last blog, I am in Atlanta this week so I thought I would pass along some things I've noticed down here. Whenever I come down here in the spring they seem to be about 4 to 6 weeks farther along in the spring season. All the trees are out and so is the pollen. My brother said is was particularly bad last weekend. Not only are the leaves out but the lawns are nice and green. That's a big change from last year at this time. Because of the drought it wasn't quite as green as normal. This year their rainfall in the Atlanta area is closer to normal. There are still a few signs of the drought, though. Downtown I saw a couple of water fountains that were dry with signs up that said they were conserving because of the drought.
Speaking of downtown Atlanta, there was still visible damage from a tornado that struck the city about a month ago. Many skyscraper windows are boarded/taped up and there was clean up work going on at the CNN Center.
Finally, I won't bore the non-golfers here with a long blog but yesterday I spent 2 1/2 hours in golf heaven. I was a 'patron' at the Masters. The whole process of getting the ticket and getting to Augusta itself is a story but let me just say I walked onto the course at 5:30 PM and it is everything you see on TV. Everything is a perfect green (except for the white scoreboards). They had a fog delay yesterday morning so I was still able to catch the final groups as they played the back nine. I stood behind the tee at 12 taking in Amen Corner then worked over to grandstands by the tee at 16. Saw K.J. Choi plunk one into the pond. The experience for me ranks right up there with going to Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park.
I see we are still on course for a cool down at the end of the weekend and early next week. So much for me bringing the warmth back to central New York!
Jim
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10:30 AM Tuesday, by Dave Longley - By taste I mean warm weather and sunshine, as opposed to the garlic scent wafting through my office from Rick Gary's recipe on Bridge Street.
Once again, we have that marine layer to our south across southern NY and Pennsylvania. Those low clouds tried to creep north, but have been stuggling to hold together. I think the sun/clouds forecast should hold through the afternoon. Dewpoints have come up some, into the mid 30s, and the breeze has come down some, but it's still there. Just a heads up if you're going to be out this evening, you might want to dress a little warmer than what you would think, given temps around 60. I know. I froze at Little League practice last night.
There's a cold front on the map to our west, but that won't be an issue today. It will remain just to our north and west. A second front will approach during the day Wednesday. We'll start out dry tomorrow, but I expect a period of midday cloudiness, which could bring a brief shower tomorrow afternoon.
Drier and slightly cooler air will arrive Thursday. That's fertilizer day for me. The darn wind has been too strong the past couple days to use the spreader. So we'll get it down Thursday, before the late-week rains. That should work out perfect. I like it when a plan comes together.
Dave
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Posted 10 AM Monday, Dave Longley - After a beautiful, sunny, Sunday, clouds have crept back into CNY. A little different set up with this one. High pressure parked well off to our northeast is responsible for the cloudiness. The clockwise wind flow around that high has set up a southeast wind flow, right toward us from the Atlantic Ocean. We'll need some patience, but I still feel that we will be able to brighten things up this afternoon. The eastern edge of this cloud shield is eroding away with dry air coming at us from New England. What I think will happen is that as the sun gets higher, mixing from the sun, will stir up the lower atmosphere, drying up the clouds. The ceiling height is 3200 feet at 9 AM, and this time of year, the sun can mix the lower atmosphere to a depth of up to 5000 feet. So hang in there, we should see developing sun by Noon.
Temperatures should be in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon, but we will still see some gusty southeast winds blowing between 10 and 20 mph. Dewpoints are in the low 30s, so one good thing is that the breeze, along with our developing sun this afternoon, will help to dry out wet yards that many of us are looking forward to getting out and doing some work in.
Temperatures look to remain mild through this week, as a fairly persistent trough sets up in the western US, pumping up a ridge in the jet stream over the eastern US. That's great. What's not so great is that trough is forecast to translate eastward across the county, taking up residence in the Northeastern US next week. This will lead to a prolonged period of crummy, damp and chilly weather. Yes, I think there will be some snowflakes in the air next week. So, let's get out and enjoy this week's weather!
Dave
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I’ve heard it said that March can be the cruelest month in central New York. There are all those signs of spring that I’ve mentioned in past blogs but there is still winter weather to deal with. During March 2008 there were far too few tastes of spring. For the whole of the month the average temperature in Syracuse was 2 degrees below normal. Only twice during the last two weeks of the month did our high temperature climb above ‘normal’
Sometimes, though, when I think we do something unusual meteorologically speaking in Syracuse I find myself a bit surprised. It was cooler than normal this past March and when I looked at the individual days one thing popped out at me. We only exceeded 50 degrees three times and two of those times were early in the month. I figured that hitting 50 degrees only three times in the month of March must be pretty unusual so I started to dig through the climate data base. I was wrong. There have been 10 years in the past when March has had only one or even no days at 50 degrees or warmer. As recently as 2001 we went through the entire month of March without making it to 50 degrees. March 2008 wasn’t as unique or as ‘bad’ as you think!
And speaking of ‘bad’ here are some more notes about Caribou Maine. I think I’m becoming a bit obsessive about this city. We are now into April and as I write this (April 3rd) they still have more than 30” of snow on the ground! They have gone more than 50 days straight with at least 30 inches of snow on the ground. While we were struggling to reach 50 degrees in March it was a struggle for Caribou to reach 40 degrees. They did it on only two occasions in March.
Next week there probably won’t be a post from me. I will be traveling to where it is warmer—Atlanta and I will be taking my golf clubs with me. I’ll see if I can bring back some mild weather with me.
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Posted 9 AM Thursday - Dave Longley - .jpg) It looks like Mother Nature will give a present to the Chiefs today, with plenty of sunshine for the start of the new baseball season. The new grass field sure looks great, in spite of the delay in the arrival of warm weather. Actually, they couldn't expect to do much better than low 50s for the 3rd day of April. The normal high for this time of year is 51.
Today's game is the first of an 8-game homestand that continues through next Thursday. We may have some rain problems tomorrow, but things will be warming up and drying out over the weekend.
One thing I looked up today was the UV Index. It's forecast to be at 5, which means if you're particularly sensitive to the sun, and you plan on sitting in the sunny sections of the park, it'd be a good idea to put on some sun block. You know, the sun is as strong now as it is on Labor Day, so just a word of precaution there.
-Dave
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Posted 10 AM Wednesday - Dave Longley - Skies have cleared nicely, with dry air rushing in from the north and west. We had a few flurries this morning, but they've gone away. While the sun will be nice, the temperature and wind won't be. Strong low pressure across the St. Lawrence and high pressure moving our way from the lower Great Lakes will keep the wind going strong today. The strongest winds were last night, when we gusted to 54 mph just before 8 PM. As of 10 this morning, we're still gusting to near 30 mph. Couple that with temperatures only in the low 30s, and wind chills are in the low 20s. The other killer today is the dry air. Yesterday we had dewpoint in the low 50s!! Today they're in the teens!! Remember, the dewpoint is the measure of how much moisture is in the air. The higher the dewpoint the more humid it feels. After the bone-dry arctic air of late, those 50s felt good yesterday. Today's teens dewpoints are certainly adding some extra bite.
The weather will stay quiet for the homeopener of the Chiefs on Thursday. We've had calls regarding the weather, and frankly, for April 3rd, the weather looks fantastic! We'll have bright sunshine through the day, with just some high clouds coming in over us during the afternoon. First pitch is at 2, and I figure the temperature will be in the upper 40s to near 50. We've got to overcome a chilly start, with many locations in the low to mid 20s for morning lows tomorrow. Be sure to bring along the sunscreen and sit in the sun!
The clouds later tomorrow will be in advance of our next weather maker, which at this point looks to be a rain storm Friday.
-Dave
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Posted 9 AM Tuesday - Dave Longley - A strong area of low pressure on the weather map over the northern Great Lakes, will continue to strengthen as it moves toward Quebec by later today. Southerly winds have warmed us to 60 as of 9 this morning, and based on the precip-free radar immediately upwind of us, we should be able to get into the mid 60s.
I've been watching a line of showers march eastward toward us, and as of 9 this morning, it was just entering western NY. We'll likely see a few rounds of showers from later this morning into this afternoon as a cold front moves through our area. Yes, that front will bring an end to our mild weather, almost as quickly as it got in here. Showers will taper off this afternoon and I would expect some sun to get out before sunset today (7:31 PM)
Strong southerly winds will give way to westerly winds, and we'll likely see winds pick up from the west to between 20 and 40 mph late today and tonight.
I got an e-mail from someone living on Oneida Lake that the ice sheet is moving, so with the type of winds we're expecting tonight and Wednesday, we could see the ice pileup and cause some damage along the eastern shore of Oneida Lake.
We'll see lots of sun tomorrow, but I would still expect winds in the 15-30 or perhaps even 20-30 mph range through tomorrow. If you need a couple of dry days strung together, Wednesday and Thursday are your days. Some more rain is likely Friday.
Dave
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Posted 8:45 AM Monday - Dave Longley - A warm front to our south is slowly lumbering its way toward Central New York. Quite a bit of rain has broken out in advance of that front, tied to a jet stream disturbance moving overhead. We've picked up over a half inch of rain this morning! Thankfully, temperatures are just a smidge above freezing, or we'd have big troubles with freezing rain.
The larger radar view at http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/northeast.gif shows that the widespread rain is becoming a bit more broken up to our west. Until that warm front moves through, I'm keeping rain in the forecast today, but at least we may get a few rain-free periods this afternoon.
That warm front will make a nice push north through Central New York tonight. I think temperatures may actually rise tonight on a strengthening south wind, into the 50s by Tuesday morning! We're still forecasting highs in the mid and upper 60s tomorrow afternoon. This forecast hinges on the fact that we get some sun out tomorrow afternoon. Computer models are indicating some breaks in the overcast in the afternoon. If we do get that warm, and we can get enough humidity up our way, there could be a couple of strong thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, I don't see all the ingredients coming together, but there is forecast to be some pretty beefy mid-level wind fields tomorrow over us, so any storms that do get going will be able to tap into those.
If you want to read more on our severe potential tomorrow, check out http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
A strong cold front will come through here late tomorrow, and behind it some unseasonably chilly air will arrive Wednesday. It still looks like the sun gets out, but temperatures will struggle to warm into the low 40s! There will be a pretty stiff NW wind as well.
By the way. The winter jacket has been retired. I'll shiver, and I'll try hard not to go back. It's Spring pullover time.
-Dave
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Posted 10 AM Thursday - Dave Longley - The battle lines have been drawn, and of course we're on the cold side of things. This map shows the issue. The temperature is the red number. That's what you need to focus on.
You can see the warmth across the Southeast US and the cooler air over us. Dividing those airmasses is a front that will remain draped from the Midwest, through southern PA. Little impulses riding eastward along that front will bring precipitation our way. Anything today will be light and spotty, primarily this afternoon.
The issue is tonight. A cold front is forecast to move through CNY, bringing in some cooler air. A stronger area of low pressure is forecast to move through Pennsylvania, spreading moisture into central New York. The precip could start as rain, but everything should change over to snow. The question on everyone's mind is how much?
Here's what I'm dealing with. You always want to know what we're looking at. I've got one computer model which has done horribly this winter, printing out the potential of 5 to 10 inches of snow (or more for us) The most consistent information this week (and for much of this winter for that matter) has been consistently drier all week, but is now trending wetter, indicating 3 to 6 inches of snow for all of CNY.
The snow that comes in tonight will be wet, with temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30. Snowfall ratios will be on the order of 10 to 1 (10 inches of snow melted down to 1 inch of water). Given that, and what I've seen for model qpf, I'm thinking 1 to 4 inches of snow through much of CNY, but 4 or more inches in the higher elevations across southern NY. That's a bit of a range, but the time of year, along with the spread in forecast info I'm looking at, kind of forced me into that range. Also, higher elevations will be a bit cooler, so as is often the case this time of year, the snow will pile up there a little easier.
One more thing to chew on is just how warm we get today. We're already at 41 as of 10 AM. If we get into the upper 40s to near 50 today, that may make it a little harder to accumulate snow when the precip first arrives.
Bottom line though, I just don't think this will be a huge dumping of snow (despite what the NAM is showing) but I would expect the ground to be covered as we head out tomorrow morning. Steady snow will taper to flurries Friday, with temps only in the mid and upper 30s.
More to come after I get a look at the new data.
Dave
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Just a few loose ends to tie up from the Easter weekend. First, though, if you are interesting in talking about Thursday night’s snow go to the blog below. In fact, there will probably be a new blog posted later today so stay tuned.
It ended up as the 7th coldest Easter on record here in Syracuse with a high of just 33 degrees this past Sunday. You might find it interesting that last Easter we were almost as cold at 35 degrees and there was even measurable snow and this when Easter fell on April 8th. Here are a couple other numbers to chew on: the warmest Easter occurred in March (87 on March 30th 1986) and the snowiest in April (3” on April 7th 1996). It’s a bit amazing that the warmest Easter is in March partly because Easter has occurred in March only 24 out of 106 years of record keeping in Syracuse. You would think the law of averages and the time of year would favor April.
If you thought that the weather here in Central New York was too chilly for you this Easter just be thankful you weren’t in Caribou, Maine. Last week they set their record for snowiest winter with over 184” for the season. As of Easter morning they had 3 feet of snow on the ground! They’ve got a ways to go before Spring truly arrives.
The cold weather also got us thinking in the weather office about some psychological barriers that may be contributing to why people are more anxious for spring to start. There are two events that we think highlight this thought. First, there was the early return of Daylight Saving Time. Those later sunsets put me in the mind frame that it should be warmer. Second there was the early Easter. March 23rd was the earliest Easter since 1913. I think in the back of most people’s mind Easter is associated with warmer early spring weather since it normally occurs in April. These two events, in my opinion, have made people a bit more edgy about the cool, winter like weather than normal.
The Lake Effect Challenge for Leukemia and Lymphoma Society is up to $30.50 as we head down the homestretch
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9:45 AM Wednesday - Temperatures are starting to drop behind a cold front that has moved through central New York. The temperature drop isn't real big, but the combination of that cold advection and increasing sun, will likely keep temperatures pretty steady around 40 today.
Winds have been gusty through the morning, and it'll remain breezy through the day. So, when does the sun get out? As I talked about on The Morning News, we'll keep the unsettled weather in here through Noon, then skies will start to brighten. This satellite picture shows the clearing, and it's progress east: http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/1km/New_York.gif
A weak bubble of high pressure will build down over us later today and tonight, and we should have fairly clear skies tonight. Temperatures won't be as cold as earlier nights this week, but we should still make it into the mid 20s.
Thursday's not looking to bad. Winds will be lighter, and will become northerly. We should see some sun in the morning, but clouds will increase through the day. I've been toying with our precipitation chances for late tomorrow, and I'm starting to lean toward keeping us dry through the daylight hours tomorrow. The models want to warm us to around 45, but with the northerly winds, and increasing clouds, I can't see us getting much above 40. I'll keep it a little optimistic and go 43.
Now Friday. As Jim Teske alluded to in earlier posts, there were some questions as to the evolution of a storm system arriving in the Northeast for week's end. Things are starting to become clearer. And colder. The warmest solution, the NAM, has been trending colder. Instead of a low track over us, or to our north, it's trending toward moving the low to our south across Pennsylvania. I'm feeling more confident in that whatever falls Friday, will fall as snow. How much is in question, but my gut tells me the heaviest will occur along the NY/PA line. The best chance to see any accumulating snow would be from later Thursday night, through the first half of Friday. By later Friday, that system would move away from us, and another shot of cold will plunge down on us for Saturday.
One thing to keep in your mind is the possibility that this thing Friday could miss us to our south, and not bring us much precipitation at all. The ECMWF, UKMET, GEM have all been trending that way. I'll be anxious to see the new model runs this morning.
Once again, there's some mighty chilly air rearing it's head in Quebec, Canada, that will be shot southward over us Saturday. 850mb temps around -15C would only support highs in the 20s. I'm not ready to bite on that just yet after the models overdid the cold over us last weekend. I would be in the mindset that Saturday will be a chilly day, whether it's upper 20s or low 30s.
Winds will start to come around Sunday, and after a cold start, we should see temperatures rebound back to near 40.
-Dave
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Updated 7:45 PM Monday...What a beautiful end to Monday with lots of sunshine. Unfortunately things are going to be more unsettled after the middle of the day Tuesday.
We will loose our sunshine quickly Tuesday afternoon as warmer weather tries to return. There is an area of low pressure that will track east along the Canadian-US border. Southerly winds are what will help warm us up. However, there will also be some moisture headed our way, too. Some rain will break out late Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. At times Tuesday night the rain could mix with some snow. If the precipitation is steady enough there could be a very light accumulations of snow over higher elevations.
That cold front will sweep through central New York later Tuesday night and end up stalled (west to east) down over the Mid Atlantic states. The bone of contention is where this front ends up during the end of the week. It looks like there may be several areas of low pressure that try to form along the front and move east. Each one of these lows would try to bring precipitation to central New York.
There have been a myriad of solutions from our computer models Monday afternoon. The 12z GFS takes a low to our south Saturday but a number of the GFS ensembles were slower with this 'main' low and took it to our west (implying a warmer and rainier solution). The 12z European model also tracked a low to our west Saturday. The 18z GFS is still to the south of us with the low but faster (suggesting drier weather Sunday). So until we see a little more consensus we are going to go with rain or snow Friday/Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday. We'll keep you posted as the week goes along.
Jim
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Well below normal temperatures are still in the cards for this Easter weekend. The normal high this weekend is in the mid 40s. We still have 30s in the forecast for both days but on Sunday, in particular, it might be a struggle to get much beyond 30. Here's what's happening. On Friday evening there is an area of low pressure near Indianapolis. It will track east (well to our south) later tonight and Saturday. It is, however, keeping a reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold air at bay over Canada. Once the low heads out to sea the colder air will start to filter south into the Northeast. This starts to happen Saturday night and that's why we think Sunday and now Monday will be colder than Saturday.
The colder weather for Sunday/Monday raises some interesting questions in terms of Lake Effect. The over us at 5,000 feet and even 10,000 feet will be colder than what was over us Thursday night. Keep in mind that the lake effect Thursday night produced several inches of snow in the hills south of Syracuse. Given that even colder air is headed our way we had to put the mention of squalls in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. How productive will any squalls be? It's a bit hard to say at this point. Certainly this part of the forecast is not as cut and dry as the temperature part. First, any squalls will have to overcome some dry air in the lower atmopshere. Also, during the daylight this time of year there are more updrafts going over land then during the heart of winter. That makes it harder to concentrate any squalls when the sun is up.
For starters, then, there should be a few squalls southeast of Lake Ontario late Saturday night. The squalls should weaken Easter Sunday then the coldest air aloft will arrive Sunday night as the wind shifts from the northwest to more of a westerly direction. This means squalls will be east of Lake Ontario Sunday night into Monday. Since there are still some question marks make sure you stay tuned to Mark as we go through the weekend. He'll have more on any lake effect potential.
Jim
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Happy first day of Spring. More about that in Dave Longley’s blog from earlier today (you get 2 blogs for the price of one today) As our seasonal snow totals here in Syracuse gets close 110” people are starting to ask whether we at normal yet for the season. The answer is no, but we are close. I’ve seen 113” listed in a number of places for an average and I think that is an old number. What we currently are using is 121.1” which is based on 1971-2000 averages. Here is the monthly breakdown:
October 0.5”
November 11.1”
December 28.6”
January 33.2”
February 24.0”
March 18.8”
April 4.8”
May 0.1”
As a side note, that .1” average for May is based on just 3 snowfalls: May 17 1973 1.2”, May 9, 1977 1.0” and the infamous Mother’s Day 1996 snow when 2.1” fell. When you average that over 30 years you come up with .1”
Anyhow, the seasonal snow total jumped from 113” to 121” because when the new 30 year averages were figured earlier this decade the National Weather Service dropped all the winters in the 1960s. 6 out of those 10 years were below 100” and none were above 125” In their place were the 1990 which were very productive for snow. Four of the top ten snowiest winters in Syracuse history came in the 1990s thus the 8 inch jump in our average.
The way things are going this decade, that average may go higher the next time it is figured after the winter of 2010-11. An additional 3 winters since 2000 have cracked the top ten. Using the numbers from 1981-82 through last winter we would have a seasonal snowfall of 126.8”
The Lake Effect Challenge for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society officially went above $30 today.
And in a totally unrelated story I just picked Kansas to beat Memphis in my NCAA pool.
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Posted 9 AM Thursday - Dave Longley - Spring officially arrived at 1:48 this morning, when the sun crossed the earth's equator, heading into the Northern Hemisphere. Obviously it isn't very Spring feeling outside, with brisk winds and temps in the 30s. The way things are shaping up, it looks as though temperatures will remain well below normal right through the Easter Weekend.
I'm sensing from some of you, if you're like me, you're wondering where Spring is? The Chiefs open up their season 2 weeks from today, and they could very well be playing in parkas!
If you've been reading both Jim and my blog entries, you're well aware of the Spring outlook for below normal temps for March and April, especially March. We're definitely feeling that! You've also read of the NAO/AO going negative for a time, leading to more blocking in the western Atlantic, and a higher likelihood of colder than normal weather here in the Northeastern US. That's working out too. Yes, it's frustrating, but it's still only March. Here's how I find my solace.
We know that warmth is building all across the southern US. We also know, that at least from Syracuse southward, there really isn't much, if any snow to melt. All we need is a south wind to bring warmth our way, and I think that we'll see more of that in the next couple weeks. It won't be like a giant switch that will be flipped. But our instances of seeing 40s and even 50s will increase, while our days in the 20s and 30s will decrease. We see this cold block of weather breaking down across the Northeastern US after this weekend, and that will allow the latitudinal position of the jet stream shift north, increasing our chances of seeing warmth. With the storm track shifting north, our chances for south winds goes up, and I see that happening as early as next week. I bet we get a couple of days in 50s, especially late next week.
Hang in there troops. We'll be mowing and golfing and fishing soon. For the skiers, you'll be able to get in a few more runs this Easter Weekend, something you can't do when Easter falls in April.
-Dave
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Posted 9 AM Tuesday - Dave Longley - It wouldn't be the middle of the week if we didn't have some unsettled weather to talk about. Actually, a pretty messy weathermap greets us this morning, with a warm front to our south, and a long area of wet weather from the Ohio Valley all the way down into Texas. An upper level low pressure area over the Southwest will eject out and head out way, bringing increasing chances of rain for tonight and Wednesday.
The initial surge of moisture coming at us this morning is fighting some very dry air. Precipitation will eventually make it in here this afternoon. We likely see some rain, sleet and/or snow. The reason for this mix is that when the precipitation evaporates in the air above us, the air will cool back below freezing. So a light mixture is likely this afternoon, but ground temperatures should make it above freezing, meaning just wet roads for the evening commute.
Light rain showers are likely tonight, with some light icing possible north and east of Syracuse across the Adirondacks and parts of the Mohawk Valley. I'm thinking this will be a marginal icing situation, so there shouldn't be any major travel problems.
Low pressure, which will be the surface reflection of that upper level thing coming at us from the Southwest will move into Pennsylvania Wednesday. That low will do a good job at shoving the warm air in here tomorrow, and we still think temperatures tomorrow could get up to 50 or so.
As that low deepens and moves to our east Wednesday night, cold air will likely get sucked down our way, changing rain to snow. These are always tough forecasts, as we try to determine if we'll be cold enough for snow, and have enough moisture around for it to amount to anything. Right now, I would expect a couple inches of wet snow by the time we get up Thursday morning. As the storm strengthens, it will set us up for a windy start to Spring Thursday with snow showers. Afternoon temperatures Thursday should be in the mid 30s, so I wouldn't expect much accumulation.
That storm will end up taking up residence across southeast Canada right into the Easter weekend. This will suppress the jet stream to our south through the weekend, meaning temperatures will remain unseasonably cold. Most medium range models don't indicate any significant snows for the Northeast. But....the Euro from last night does have the possibility of some significant snows Sunday night into Monday. That's just one run, and I'm not ready to jump onto that bandwagon yet. Today's model runs should start to shed some more light on that. For now, we're keeping the cold forecast with some sun and flurries into Monday.
Dave
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Our winters here in Central New York can be quite long. The snow can start in early November and linger into April (some years it’s before Halloween and we’ve had snow around for May college graduations and Mother’s Day!) A closer look at the data shows its not one long snow fest but the seasonal snowfall is made up of 2 or 3 week spurts.
Take this winter as an example. For the first 2 ½ weeks of December we went great guns. It snowed just about everyday and over a 17 day period we had almost 4 feet of snow (45.4”) of snow. That short period accounts for over 40% of our seasonal snow total so far.
I went back over just the past few winters and found these streaks or spurts were pretty common.
Snowfall Season % Season Total
Feb 5-18 2007 14 Days 48” 140.2” 34%
Dec 1-17 2005 17 Days 45” 124.6” 36%
Feb 9-28 2005 20 Days 43.4” 136.2” 32%
Jan 11-31 2004 21 Days 69.1” 181.3” 38%
Personally I think this is just a graphic example of how we get ‘locked’ into a cold pattern here in the Northeast. While the jet stream is always changing and evolving on a day to day basis if you averaged out the jet stream pattern over these 2 to 3 week periods you would find one common denominator: all these spurts can be characterized by a trough of low pressure in the Eastern United States. While there are Nor’easters sprinkled in these time frames it looked like the majority of the snow came from lake effect snow.
I went back a bit farther in time and found the ultimate snow ‘spurt’ for Syracuse. It was during the middle of the winter of 1965-66 when over a 5 day period we had 47.4” This was during the Blizzard of 1966 and it accounted for an astounding 41% of the total snowfall that entire winter!
The Lake Effect Challenge for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society is now past $29 thanks to a couple mentions today (3/13/08). Y 94 DJ Kathy Rowe wanted to know if it was time to end the contest but given the pattern I was seeing through the end of the month I said we should keep it going a while.
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The shuttle Endeavor is in the early stages of a 16 day mission to the International Space Station. The station itself is getting much bigger with each trip, and that, along with the shuttle can be spotted as they move across our nighttime sky.
This website, http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/cities/region.cgi?country=United_States®ion=New_York will allow you to pick from a list of select NY cities to see when the ISS or Shuttle will be visible. I see a listing for ATV. Not sure what that is. Will have to look it up.
Clear skies and look up!
Dave
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Posted 9:30 AM Tuesday, 3/11/2008- Dave Longley - Another beautiful sunny day is on tap today, get out there and enjoy it. You really notice the sun now in the evening, following the switch to eastern daylight time. I noticed that cleaning up from dinner last night.
We're watching a cold front this morning just north of the US/Canadian border, northwest of the Great Lakes, that will be our next weather maker. This front will bring an increase in clouds this evening (may marr our sunset) and some snow in here after midnight. This thing is moisture starved, but we could still squeeze out a dusting to an inch or so of snow by the time we wake up Wednesday morning.
The real cold with this front should stay to our north, but we will get kissed by some colder air tomorrow, so temperatures will only make it to near 35. Based on an analysis yesterday, Lake Ontario water temperatures have cooled to 36 degrees F, so we would need temperatures around 12 or 13 degrees F at 850mb over the lake to get lake effect precipitation. We don't quite get there tomorrow, but there should be enough moisture to get some snow showers going. I think we'll get some sun out tomorrow afternoon. It should be breezy tomorrow afternoon, but at this point, it looks to be a longshot to get much more than an inch of new snow tomorrow.
Things will clear out Wednesday night, and we may see some sun Thursday morning. A strong push of warmer air will be coming at us, and that will bring clouds and our next chance of precipitation Thursday. We may be just cold enough for some snow at the start, but should change to rain in the afternoon. Again, precipitation amounts look to be light. With the clouds and precip., I lowered the high from the 47 down into the low 40s.
Forcing for precipitation looks weak into Friday, and we should be warm enough for a mix of rain or wet snow showers. Clouds may be pretty stubborn during the day Friday, which could keep temperatures a little cooler than what they might otherwise get to.
Now the weekend. Of course, it's the St. Patrick's Parade in Syracuse. All the models have been showing a system coming at us from the central US. The GFS continues to be the most developed with this storm, placing a fairly deep storm over NYC by Sunday morning. The GFS has some support from the ensembles and the UKMET. The Euro is weaker, faster and farther south. the trend that I've seen is for this storm to be slower and a bit farther south than earlier forecasts. This would lead me to believe that we could see the first half to 3/4 of Saturday dry, with some snow flurries moving in late in the day. This would be with either solution.
If the deeper GFS solution verifies, we would have wind and snow Saturday night and Sunday. If the faster, weaker solution is the way to go, we would see just a few flurries Sunday. Temperatures will be in the low 30s Sunday as some cooler air does get drawn down into CNY.
Beyond that we'll have 2 things we'll be watching. 1, which I've mentioned in earlier posts, is the NAO going negative. Probably the most negative that we've seen since December. This would lead to cooler than normal air being locked in across the Northeast US. That's not to say we can't get mild, but the overall average over the next 7-10 days looks to be below normal.
The other thing we're watching is a very active southern branch of the jet stream. At times this may lead to very unsettled weather in the southwestern US and an increase in severe weather across the southern Plains. IF. Notice that's a big IF. IF something in the southern stream can get linked up with the rather persistent trough in the NE US, then we could have a storm of rain and snow in the eastern US. If the phasing doesn't occur, then the southern stream system would likely harmlessly scoot off the mid Atlantic coast and not bother us. Notice I said rain or snow. There is no arctic air interaction at all, so these storms would have limited cold air to work with, and we'd be right on the fence of rain/snow. A rather typical March scenario.
That should give you enough to chew on. Comments as always are welcome.
Dave
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