Just rolled into the office and the new SPC outlook does have us in a moderate risk today. As I mentioned last night, this is setting up to be a potentially damaging wind event for us. The storms we just had go through will do nothing to ruin our severe potential today. If you click on the above image, you'll be sent to the Day 1 convective outlook. This looks to be mid to late afternoon arrival, but I'm just starting to look at the data. More to come through the morning.

Dave

The heat is here and boy did it come in with a bang last night! In Syracuse there were actually 2 storms, one around 1 AM and the other one just before 4 AM. With all that lightning I'm surprised there wasn't more than 4,000 people left without power.  No reports of any other severe weather (wind damage or hail).  Those storms were along a warm front that cleared central New York this morning.  How about this for a temperature contrast: 92 in Syracuse, 75 in Albany and 59 in Worcester, MA! In fact much of New England was socked in with clouds and fog with temperatures in the 50s or 60s.

The 92 Syracuse reached Friday tied the record for the date which was set back in 1999.

Now the heat is here the next question is how long will the heat last. The feeling is we will be around 90 degrees for the next 3 days (Saturday, Sunday and Monday) then a cold front will push through Tuesday. I would characterize Tuesday as a transition day as it should still be rather humid. We have 86 in there for a high but if the front is slower in arriving Tuesday could end up around 90 again. We'll wait and see about that.

As far as more thunderstorms, there is one main triggering mechanism this weekend, a cold front. It is a very active front Friday evening with tornado watches out from Missouri all the way north into Michigan. Luckily for us, the strongest winds aloft that are helping to drive these storms will head north into Canada later tonight.  This means the front will be much weaker when it comes through central New York Saturday. In fact, on my maps for tomorrow I drew it as more of a trough of low pressure or a wind shift line. We also think we have a good handle on the timing of the front (or trough) -midday- which means by mid afternoon whatever scattered thunderstorms there are will be shifting south into Pennsylvania. The boundary will head back north Sunday and will again help cause some scattered thunderstorms.  As of Friday evening we aren't highlighted in any area of potential severe weather over the weekend but given all the moisture in the air there probably will be some gully-washers.

Keep cool this weekend!

Jim

What a change one day can make.  Yesterday it was in the 80s (with humidity to boot!) this afternoon we are holding in the low 50s. This cooler air is part of a chilly air mass building south out of Canada.  With clear skies and diminishing winds we should set up for ideal radiational cooling.  One thing to keep an eye on this evening is the dewpoint.  We are near 40 degrees as of 6 PM and there are lower dewpoint to our north, even 20s just north of Lake Ontario.  What the dewpoint ends up at later this evening should give us a clearer picture of how cold we might get. Under ideal conditions at night we typically drop close to the dew point.

The National Weather Service out of Binghamton just issued a frost advisory for much of central New York. It covers the coldest part of the night from 4 AM-8 AM. Right now we are thinking 37 or 38 in Syracuse and maybe a little cooler in the in the immediate suburbs. We think best chance for frost in Onondaga County would come across the southern part of the county where there are some deeper valleys that allow the cold air to drain to the bottom.  Elsewhere across central New York if you live away from a larger village or body of water you are at risk for some frost late tonight.

If you want to protect your plants tonight and you can move them you should bring them closer to your house or into the garage if you can.  Anything that is already in the ground make sure you cover. One other thing: I'm not a gardening expert but I've been told that for some plants the threshold for damage is higher than 32 degrees. For those more sensitive plants (I believe peppers and tomatoes are two examples) even in the immediate Syracuse area covering them tonight is probably a good idea.

Tomorrow night we are thinking the frost threat is a little less as the wind may be up just a bit more.

I'll try to update you on some temperatures later in the evening.

Jim

There is certainly no way to put a good spin on the weather so far this week. As I type this up (10:30 AM Thursday) it's showery with temperatures in the mid 40s when our normal high should be in the low 70s. It's hard to believe but our 'best' day this week was Tuesday when we were 63 for a high (still 8 degrees below normal). I can't even justify that I'm saving money not running the air conditioner. Every day this week I've had the heat on in my house. If there is any good spin on this weather just let me know.  I'm open to suggestions.

The weather pattern over North America is really bottled up and is not moving much. Our nemesis is a broad area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that stretches from Labrador in eastern Canada all the way back into the Great Lakes. It's really the whole Northeast quadrant of the US that has been cool not only this week but for much of May.  Here are some of the temperature anomalies so far:

Syracuse:    -3.3
New York City:    -3.0
Boston:    -1.9
Burlington:    -2.1
Williamsport:    -3.4
Washington, DC:    -1.0
Detroit:    -2.0

I know it's not much of a consolation but cool weather is not playing favorites here in the Northeast this month.  By the way, through Wednesday we were on pace here in Syracuse for the 8th coolest May on record. This followed the 3rd warmest April on record.

The good news is the pattern will slowly break down the next couple of days.  The big low will finally push off to our east and a ridge of high pressure will build in from the west.  While this transition happens there may still be some clouds Friday and Saturday and as we still have temperatures a bit below normal those two days. Keep in mind we have a deep hole to dig ourselves out of to get back into the 70s. In addition, we are debating in the office whether there could be a brief shower either one of those two days thanks to some lingering cool air aloft . We'll keep you posted on that possibility in the regular weather discussion and on TV. The payoff still looks good for the end of the holiday weekend as the ridge builds in and temperatures warm quickly.

We issued our official summer forecast earlier this evening. Just a refresher on how we go about our seasonal forecasts. We pick one or two unusual monthly numbers for the current season and compare them to past years.  April was key to this year’s summer forecast.  It was unusually warm this April (3^rd warmest) and there was little snow (just a trace).  Here is what we found based on these numbers.

When looking at the past ten warmest Aprils, 7 out of the 10 following summers were warmer than normal. There also seemed to be a connection between how warm it was in April and the number of 90 degree days. The chances of going above the ‘normal’ number of 90 degree days (which is 8) was only 27% when April was cool. When April temperatures were normal or above normal your odds went above 50% (57% and 56% respectively) but when you narrowed the warm Aprils to just the top ten warmest April the chances for more 90 degree weather shot up to 80%!

Now on to the April snow. When we had .1” of snow or less in April in the past, 8 out of the 12 summers that followed were above normal in temperature. You might think that shouldn’t the warmest Aprils also be the least snowy April?. That wasn’t the case.  Only 2 years (1952, 1955) made both lists..  One other note about temperatures: In those 12 years with little or no April snow were the 3 warmest summers in Syracuse history (2005, 1949, 1955).  Here’s another 90 degree connection: 7 out of 12 of these years had at least 18 days when the temperature exceeded 90 degrees.

Normally when we do a summer forecast we don’t find much of a signal for wet or dry weather. I think the reason is the more scattered nature of the precipitation. One spot can get 2” of rain from a thunderstorm while 10 miles away just a trace of rain falls. This time around we did find a signal for a drier than normal summer.  7 out 10 summers following warm Aprils were drier than normal.

So to sum up, it looks a warmer and drier than normal summer. We are figuring on at least ten 90 degree days.  I’ll throw one more nugget that is not part of the official forecast. It’s my belief that the heat will start early in the summer season since I found the strongest signal of warmth for June.

One additional thing I looked at for this summer forecast was how these past Septembers ended up. We all remember how nice (but dry) the late summer/early fall was last year so I thought we could look to see if summer weather would linger through September.  After all, Fall doesn’t officially start until September 21^st.

Using years with little snow in April as our baseline, we found that 8 out of those 12 years had warmer than normal Septembers and the chances for 90 degrees that late into the season increased as well.

Now my ‘buyer beware’ fine print statement. As you look at all this data keep in mind we are still playing percentages. No two summers or winters are exactly alike. Whenever we see what looks like a strong signal the percentage of warmer than normal summers is 70 or 75%.  That means there are 25-30% that are near or below normal in temperature. It’s not all black and white when making the seasonal forecast there is a certain grey area. We’ll see how the next 3 or 4 months pan out. If you have any questions I’ll try my best to answer them.

Posted 10:55 AM Wednesday, 5/7/2008, Dave Longley - A warm front is forecast to swing through Central New York this afternoon.  The timing would put this front through here once we get a chance to warm into the mid 70s.  We think this will be the trigger for a few thunderstorms this afternoon.  Again, not all of us will see rain or thunder, but everything that we look at here in the office continues  to point to the possibility of something developing this afternoon.

A cold front now back across Michigan will continue to move east and that will be a much better focus for rain and some thunder.  We could pick up about a quarter inch of rain tonight.

It still looks like any rain or clouds will move out by sunrise Thursday, and we should end up bright and sunny by tomorrow afternoon.  All in all, not a bad day tomorrow with WNW winds of 10-20 mph, diminishing through the afternoon.

The one thing we're still fine tuning is Friday's forecast.  A very wet storm is forecast to move out of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic Friday.  We're just not sure of the latitudinal position of that low, so that will dictate how far north the northern edge of the rain shield will be.  Right now we figure the cut-off of rain will be somewhere in CNY.  Of course, that will also dictate where the clouds thin and the sun gets out.  We could end up cloudy, but dry Friday.

Saturday will be totally dry with temps in the 60s.

Sunday, Mother's Day, will bring increasing clouds, and the chance for some rain during the afternoon.  Much chillier and wet weather will stick around for much of the first half (at least) of next week.  Just a heads up there.

-Dave

For growers and gardeners across central New York we were in dangerous territory the last few days. Wednesday morning Syracuse was 33 and this morning we were 28, just one degree off the record for the day.  With all the warm weather the last few weeks trees and plants across the region are in bloom well ahead of schedule.  In my yard there is a Magnolia Tree that has already bloomed and is finished for the season.  Some lilacs are about to do the same.  I was on the radio with garden expert Terry Ettinger last weekend and he told me that in terms of foliage/flowering we are about 2 weeks ahead of schedule.

The problem, as we’ve seen the past few days, is we are still susceptible to frost.  The average date for the last frost in Syracuse is April 29 but the last two Mays temperatures have dropped into the mid 30s at the airport in early May which means that outlying areas most certainly touched 32. During those years I know apple growers were on pins and needles as they tried to protect their tender fruit blossoms. In 2005, the low in Syracuse reached 30 on May 13^th. The bottom line is we shouldn’t be surprised by the frost the last couple of days.

So while you were working in the yard the last two weekends we hope you stuck to raking, trimming and mowing and resisted the urge to plant anything but hearty plants. There are a couple of rules of thumb I’ve heard.  One is to wait until Mother’s Day and the other is to wait until the Oak leaves come out.

Now some loose ends to tie up for April.  The cool spell the last couple of days knocked us down and we ended up as the 3rd warmest April on record.  And April will end up almost normal for precipitation. We were nearly 2” behind heading into last weekend but over an inch of rain Saturday evening and the steady rain Monday brought us back up.

Some random tidbits….all that snow on the ground in Caribou that I talked about last month has melted and now the flooding is happening.  In nearby Fort Kent the St. John River is at a record flood stage. On the opposite side of things, the fire danger is high in the southwest United States. Yesterday afternoon I saw that Pueblo, Colorado had a relative humidity of 4%!

Posted Monday Morning, 4/28/2008, Dave Longley - Well, after a long stretch of dry and warm weather, the weather will be going downhill just a bit for the start of this week.  Low pressure heading our way from W. Va this morning will move just about over us this afternoon, spreading a large area of rain our way.  As of 10 this morning, we've had a quarter inch of rain.  That's on top of the inch plus of rain we had Saturday evening.  It looks like this widespread rain will be with us until late this afternoon, when the steady rain will taper off to showers.  Most areas will end up with between 1/2" and 3/4" of rainfall, with a few isolated higher amounts across Central New York.  It doesn't look good for Little League games this evening.

To our west, the jet stream is taking a dip southward, and that dip will deliver a couple days worth of unseasonably chilly air to our area.  Temperatures will likely be held in the mid 40s the next couple of afternoons.  Fortunately, the air will be dry most of the time, so we're not expecting much precipitation.  Yes, we still have the snowflake in for Wednesday.  We will be cold enough for precipitation to fall in the form of snow Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  There won't be any accumulation.

A heads up.  If you were ambitious and started some spring planting, there is a risk of frost Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.  Temperatures will drop into the low 30s, with some upper 20s possible, with some frost those mornings.  You'll need to protect any tender vegetation.

There are signs that the warmth will come back at us later in the week, with afternoon highs getting into the 70s as early as Friday, and if not then, Saturday afternoon.  Just a little bump in the road.

Posted 10:30 AM Wednesday, by Dave Longley - Wow, what a stretch of weather we've been enjoying.  I had to come back from vacation just to enjoy some warm weather!  As of 10 this morning, we're already at 70 degrees, and still there area a few hours of sun to come.  Also, southwest winds will help to push temperatures well into the 70s today.  I'm also noticing an increase in dewpoints.  There's more moisture in the air today compared to yesterday.  This heat and moisture will provide the fuel for a few thunderstorms this afternoon.

This isn't a great setup for storms, but we've got the warm and increasingly moist air over us, and an approaching cold front.  All of this will come together this afternoon to produce some showers, and some thunder.  There isn't much wind aloft over us, so it looks like our chances for severe weather will be pretty slim.  Keep an eye on the radar this afternoon though.

By 7 or 8 this evening, the cold front will have pushed to our east, and skies will start to clear from the west.  We may actually end up with a pretty cool sunset this evening, especially over the Finger Lakes as the setting sun illuminates the undersides of the retreating clouds. 

More dry air will build in over us tonight, and will be centered over us tomorrow.  This will mean plenty of sun tomorrow.  Winds from the NW coupled with the dry air, could actually pose some more fire issues tomorrow, similar to what we've seen over the past week.  We're not expecting much rain this afternoon, and the dead vegetation will provide quite a bit of fuel for unattended fires tomorrow.  You can read more on areas under a "burn ban" here: http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=52cf6093-b66a-40f0-a601-37dc22a034aa

We'll be dry and warm into Friday, although late in the day, humidity will try to make a run at us and that could bring an isolated late-day thunderstorm.

-Dave

Yesterday a viewer from Cazenovia e-mailed us a picture that reminded us of late season snowstorm on this date just one year ago. It was a view of a pine tree bending under the weight of heavy wet snow.  An area of low pressure tracked east through the middle of the country then strengthened once it reached the East Coast. The storm stalled near New York City on the 16th and central New York ended up just cold enough for wet snow. A general 6-12" snowfall occurred over all of central New York that day.  Some of the higher elevations south of Syracuse (including Cazenovia) ended up with a foot and a half of snow.

The National Weather Service has a good summary of this storm on their web site. It has an excellent snow total map and pictures as well:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/WeatherEvents/Snow/april162007/april162007.shtml

I did a little digging through the stats and I found that even though the chances for measurable snow are slim in late April it can happen. Since records have been kept at the airport we have had at least a tenth of an inch of snow after April once every 3 years.  Something more significant, say 2 inches or more in one day, happens only once every 15 years. This is certainly not to scare everyone about using getting snow in the next 2 weeks but more to put last years snowstorm into some historical perspective. Then, of course, there is May snow which occurs once every 10 years.

Jim