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One other leftover stat from the month of April in Syracuse is the sunny weather. At 66% it was the 4th sunniest April on record. We had about 1/3 more sunshine this past April than in a normal April. We were going at such a great clip with sunshine toward the end of the month that the last half of April we averaged 80% sunshine! I read something from the Buffalo National Weather Service that they had their sunniest April on record. We certainly aren’t going to be challenging Arizona or Florida for sunshine anytime soon but the April numbers are remarkable none the less especially when you think of all the ways we can get clouds this time of year.
Last week we had some pretty chilly air over us early in the week. That’s why the frosty mornings but also the reason for some clouds. As the lower atmosphere tries to heat up the air rises, cools and causes clouds. As the cool air left, milder air tried to return. That milder air was forced to rise up and over the relatively cool air still down at the ground over us. The rising motions may not be as great as when the air aloft over us is chilly but it’s still enough for clouds. Add to that any time a front or area of low pressure moves close by (thanks to a usually active spring-time jet stream) figure clouds again. Then, of course, you can include lake effect clouds at times early in the month if the air aloft is cool enough and the wind is out of the northwest. When you start listing all these mechanisms for clouds it’s a wonder we even average 50% sunshine during the month of April.
Stay tuned, next week we will unveil the 2008 Summer Forecast. The forecast will show up first during the evening newscast next Thursday (May 15th) but I will post something in the blog section Thursday evening to go into more detail about how we came up with the forecast.
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Posted 10:55 AM Wednesday, 5/7/2008, Dave Longley - A warm front is forecast to swing through Central New York this afternoon. The timing would put this front through here once we get a chance to warm into the mid 70s. We think this will be the trigger for a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Again, not all of us will see rain or thunder, but everything that we look at here in the office continues to point to the possibility of something developing this afternoon.
A cold front now back across Michigan will continue to move east and that will be a much better focus for rain and some thunder. We could pick up about a quarter inch of rain tonight.
It still looks like any rain or clouds will move out by sunrise Thursday, and we should end up bright and sunny by tomorrow afternoon. All in all, not a bad day tomorrow with WNW winds of 10-20 mph, diminishing through the afternoon.
The one thing we're still fine tuning is Friday's forecast. A very wet storm is forecast to move out of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic Friday. We're just not sure of the latitudinal position of that low, so that will dictate how far north the northern edge of the rain shield will be. Right now we figure the cut-off of rain will be somewhere in CNY. Of course, that will also dictate where the clouds thin and the sun gets out. We could end up cloudy, but dry Friday.
Saturday will be totally dry with temps in the 60s.
Sunday, Mother's Day, will bring increasing clouds, and the chance for some rain during the afternoon. Much chillier and wet weather will stick around for much of the first half (at least) of next week. Just a heads up there.
-Dave
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Posted 10:30 AM, Tuesday, 5/6/2008-Dave Longley- Another beautiful, sunny morning across the area. Light winds are making it feel doubly nice. Looks like I'll be able to finish up the yard work this afternoon. Jim Teske and I have been watching an area of clouds drop in toward us from the NW. The clouds are drying up as they head our way, but we may see an increase in some clouds around here by mid afternoon. There are showers showing up on the radar back across Michigan, but we've been hard-pressed to see anything hitting the ground. We call that virga in meteorology...precipitation that dries up before hitting the ground.
Do you know that weather balloons are still sent up into the sky twice a day, across the country? They measure winds, and moisture and temperature high up into the sky, creating a sounding of the atmosphere. The balloon sounding from Buffalo this morning shows some pretty dry air in the lowest 6,000 feet or so of the atmosphere, and I'm not surprised that moisture is drying up. That'll be something to watch for this afternoon, but I think worst case scenario is we end up with a few sprinkles later this afternoon/evening and that's it. Looks good for all the sports teams in CNY this evening, with temperatures falling to around 60 by 8 PM.
The rest of tonight will be dry, and then as winds turn into the south Wednesday, temperatures will warm into the 70s! A cold front back to our west will be the main trigger for precipitation Wednesday night. However, we're getting some indication from our computer models, that a few showers may try to form tomorrow afternoon, after 2 PM. The chances for rain don't look to be all that great tomorrow; just wanted to give you a heads up.
Boy, some messy weather coming in across the southwestern US, will spread moisture our way Thursday and Friday. I came in this morning and was pleasantly surprised that some drier air looks like it'll make a run at us later Thursday. What looked like a rainy day, looks like we could see some sun later Thursday afternoon. Woo-hoo! The question will be if that dry air can keep another surge of moisture to our south Friday. You'll see some sun in there for Thursday, and I kept the sun in for Friday, with just the chance of a few showers.
Now the weekend. Most of our longer range guidance is showing a sunny Saturday, and increasing clouds with rain arriving Sunday. I say most, because the ECMWF is showing rain Saturday and dry Sunday. Where are the weather dice? We're going to stick with the consensus now and keep the dry Saturday, rain arriving Sunday scenario. That's what we've had since the weekend, and will stick there through this morning.
There you have it. Questions, comments?
-Dave
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For growers and gardeners across central New York we were in dangerous territory the last few days. Wednesday morning Syracuse was 33 and this morning we were 28, just one degree off the record for the day. With all the warm weather the last few weeks trees and plants across the region are in bloom well ahead of schedule. In my yard there is a Magnolia Tree that has already bloomed and is finished for the season. Some lilacs are about to do the same. I was on the radio with garden expert Terry Ettinger last weekend and he told me that in terms of foliage/flowering we are about 2 weeks ahead of schedule.
The problem, as we’ve seen the past few days, is we are still susceptible to frost. The average date for the last frost in Syracuse is April 29 but the last two Mays temperatures have dropped into the mid 30s at the airport in early May which means that outlying areas most certainly touched 32. During those years I know apple growers were on pins and needles as they tried to protect their tender fruit blossoms. In 2005, the low in Syracuse reached 30 on May 13th. The bottom line is we shouldn’t be surprised by the frost the last couple of days.
So while you were working in the yard the last two weekends we hope you stuck to raking, trimming and mowing and resisted the urge to plant anything but hearty plants. There are a couple of rules of thumb I’ve heard. One is to wait until Mother’s Day and the other is to wait until the Oak leaves come out.
Now some loose ends to tie up for April. The cool spell the last couple of days knocked us down and we ended up as the 3rd warmest April on record. And April will end up almost normal for precipitation. We were nearly 2” behind heading into last weekend but over an inch of rain Saturday evening and the steady rain Monday brought us back up.
Some random tidbits….all that snow on the ground in Caribou that I talked about last month has melted and now the flooding is happening. In nearby Fort Kent the St. John River is at a record flood stage. On the opposite side of things, the fire danger is high in the southwest United States. Yesterday afternoon I saw that Pueblo, Colorado had a relative humidity of 4%!
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Posted 10:40 AM, Wednesday, 4/30/2008, Dave Longley - Yes, scattered flurries have been falling across CNY this morning. Boy, did it get a response from folks! I guess the nice weather of the past couple weeks has softened us. I would guess in a "normal" April, those flakes wouldn't have illicited such a response.
It was pretty amazing this morning. We went from bright sunshine to an overcast and snow showers in a matter of minutes. With very cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating, we're basically boiling the atmosphere. The clouds and flurries should dissipate as we go through the day. Cooler, more stable air coming in off of Lake Ontario should create sunny skies from Syracuse north and westward toward the lake.
We have one more night to worry about frost. I think our chances of getting to 32 are a bit better Thursday morning. We hit 33 this morning.
Skies will be clear, temperatures aloft (around 5000 feet) will be warmer so no lake effect clouds, and winds will be lighter, so temperatures will be able to easily drop into the low 30s. It's very possible we could slip into the upper 20s.
Temperatures will begin to moderate Thursday, and we could very well warm into the 70s Saturday. The humidity will increase dramatically with our chances for showers increasing as we head into the weekend. At this point it doesn't look like a washout, but we'll be dodging showers through the weekend.
Dave
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Posted Monday Morning, 4/28/2008, Dave Longley - Well, after a long stretch of dry and warm weather, the weather will be going downhill just a bit for the start of this week. Low pressure heading our way from W. Va this morning will move just about over us this afternoon, spreading a large area of rain our way. As of 10 this morning, we've had a quarter inch of rain. That's on top of the inch plus of rain we had Saturday evening. It looks like this widespread rain will be with us until late this afternoon, when the steady rain will taper off to showers. Most areas will end up with between 1/2" and 3/4" of rainfall, with a few isolated higher amounts across Central New York. It doesn't look good for Little League games this evening.
To our west, the jet stream is taking a dip southward, and that dip will deliver a couple days worth of unseasonably chilly air to our area. Temperatures will likely be held in the mid 40s the next couple of afternoons. Fortunately, the air will be dry most of the time, so we're not expecting much precipitation. Yes, we still have the snowflake in for Wednesday. We will be cold enough for precipitation to fall in the form of snow Tuesday night and early Wednesday. There won't be any accumulation.
A heads up. If you were ambitious and started some spring planting, there is a risk of frost Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop into the low 30s, with some upper 20s possible, with some frost those mornings. You'll need to protect any tender vegetation.
There are signs that the warmth will come back at us later in the week, with afternoon highs getting into the 70s as early as Friday, and if not then, Saturday afternoon. Just a little bump in the road.
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The summer-like warmth continues over central New York. A cold front came through last night and we are still forecasting temperatures about 10 degrees above normal today (Thursday). Some cold front. Our average temperature for April currently stands at 7.2 degrees above normal. We are right now tied for the 4th warmest April on record. If you only include the past 7 days over average jumps to 16.5 degrees above normal! Earlier in the week we mentioned that we are only the cusp of something unusual for April. If we can hit 70 degrees or better today it will be the eighth straight day that’s happened and that puts on par with just another couple of years:
1942 8 Days
1990 8 Days
1957 9 Days
If we can manage to hit 70 degrees today (it will be close) we think we have a real good chance of surpassing 1957.
There was one other April that caught my eye—April 2005. Much like this April, April 2005 featured a long stretch with dry weather; 11 straight days without rain. There weren’t as many 70 degree days that year but April 2005 did end up 3 degrees above normal and that followed a colder than normal March. Fast forward to this year: a colder than normal March is followed by what will certainly be a warmer than normal April. I bring April 2005 into the conversation because that summer ended up the warmest on record in Syracuse. When we make our summer forecast in a couple of weeks, past April weather may play a big role. We’ll be doing some more digging into this. One thing I know for sure is that all the Aprils I mentioned above (2005, 1990, 1957 and 1942) had warmer than normal Junes. By the way, it looks like we are scheduled to have our official Summer Forecast ready for May 15th at 11 PM.
I don’t want to forget there is a bit of a double edge sword to all this sunny weather. Here in Syracuse we are now into our 12th day in a row with no measurable rain and even though things are nice and green there are signs of strain. If you have tried to plant things you know the topsoil is getting bone dry. I’ve noticed on several hikes across central New York the underbrush (leaves etc.) are also bone dry. Thankfully, winds are rather light today. Even better news is there is a better chance for some rain over the next 5 to 7 days.
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Posted 10:30 AM Wednesday, by Dave Longley - Wow, what a stretch of weather we've been enjoying. I had to come back from vacation just to enjoy some warm weather! As of 10 this morning, we're already at 70 degrees, and still there area a few hours of sun to come. Also, southwest winds will help to push temperatures well into the 70s today. I'm also noticing an increase in dewpoints. There's more moisture in the air today compared to yesterday. This heat and moisture will provide the fuel for a few thunderstorms this afternoon.
This isn't a great setup for storms, but we've got the warm and increasingly moist air over us, and an approaching cold front. All of this will come together this afternoon to produce some showers, and some thunder. There isn't much wind aloft over us, so it looks like our chances for severe weather will be pretty slim. Keep an eye on the radar this afternoon though.
By 7 or 8 this evening, the cold front will have pushed to our east, and skies will start to clear from the west. We may actually end up with a pretty cool sunset this evening, especially over the Finger Lakes as the setting sun illuminates the undersides of the retreating clouds.
More dry air will build in over us tonight, and will be centered over us tomorrow. This will mean plenty of sun tomorrow. Winds from the NW coupled with the dry air, could actually pose some more fire issues tomorrow, similar to what we've seen over the past week. We're not expecting much rain this afternoon, and the dead vegetation will provide quite a bit of fuel for unattended fires tomorrow. You can read more on areas under a "burn ban" here: http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=52cf6093-b66a-40f0-a601-37dc22a034aa
We'll be dry and warm into Friday, although late in the day, humidity will try to make a run at us and that could bring an isolated late-day thunderstorm.
-Dave
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It has been a remarkable stretch of weather this week across central New York. High pressure down at the ground and aloft built into the Northeast midweek and it is entrenched over us. Think of it as a big roadblock in the atmosphere;it's holding back all comers at this point.
Our biggest point of contention this week was whether we would get any rain in here by the end of the week. We knew we would be dealing with a storm in the upper atmopshere moving through middle part of the country at this point but there were questions as to how it would interact with high pressure here in the East. Would it A) weaken and move through the Northeast or would it B) be shunted south down toward the Virginias and Carolinas? The computer models that showed each of these scenarios held their ground all week. As of today (Friday) the computer model favoring scenario A (the GFS) has blinked and sided with the farther south solution. We kept the shower in for Sunday afternoon but mainly to cover any showers that try to sneak into the Finger Lakes. Elsewhere across central New York I think there odds are good that the weekend will stay dry.
I am a bit surprised by how quickly we warmed up this week. Being well above normal is no shock but to get into the upper 70s I would have figured we would have needed more wind than we've had. One thing I noticed is that the computer models did a poor job earlier in the week of forecasting the temperatures at 5,000 feet for the end of the week. This time of year that level is key if you are going to forecast high temperatures on a sunny day. On those types of days the air in the lower 5,000 feet of the atmosphere is usually well 'mixed' That means air near the surface rises and is replaced by air aloft. As the air aloft sinks it warms at a set rate. If it's coming from 5,000 ft it will warm by 13c. Those temperatures aloft were off by 3 or 4 degrees C which is why 72 degrees turned into 78 on Thursday. If a previous post about Accu-Weather forecasting 78 for Friday is true I say kudos to them.
Have a good weekend!
Jim
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Yesterday a viewer from Cazenovia e-mailed us a picture that reminded us of late season snowstorm on this date just one year ago. It was a view of a pine tree bending under the weight of heavy wet snow. An area of low pressure tracked east through the middle of the country then strengthened once it reached the East Coast. The storm stalled near New York City on the 16th and central New York ended up just cold enough for wet snow. A general 6-12" snowfall occurred over all of central New York that day. Some of the higher elevations south of Syracuse (including Cazenovia) ended up with a foot and a half of snow.
The National Weather Service has a good summary of this storm on their web site. It has an excellent snow total map and pictures as well:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/WeatherEvents/Snow/april162007/april162007.shtml
I did a little digging through the stats and I found that even though the chances for measurable snow are slim in late April it can happen. Since records have been kept at the airport we have had at least a tenth of an inch of snow after April once every 3 years. Something more significant, say 2 inches or more in one day, happens only once every 15 years. This is certainly not to scare everyone about using getting snow in the next 2 weeks but more to put last years snowstorm into some historical perspective. Then, of course, there is May snow which occurs once every 10 years.
Jim
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The official low in Syracuse Tuesday morning was 29. Actually, that is not even close to the record low of 18 set back in 1926. Here are some of the colder readings that came in this morning:
Alder Creek 24
Tully 23
Westdale 20
N. Redfield 19
Saranac Lake 15
Let us know what your low was this morning.
Watch what happens with temperatures during the day. This dry air mass over us now will warm quickly under the influence of the strengthening April sun. As of 9 AM we had already gained 10 degrees from our overnight low and we think we will gain another 15 or 16 degrees before the day ends. As the air stays dry the next few days we should continue to see a wide range between the high and the low.
Jim
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It's a chilly start to the new week but there is a nice warm up in store the rest of the week here in central New York. Here's what's happening.
There is a trough of low pressure sitting over the eastern US right now. This trough is associated with some pretty chilly air and we expect our temperatures to remain about 10 degrees below normal. Down south, where the growing season has begun, there are frost and freeze warnings out Monday morning. However, there will be a rather dramatic change unfolding over the next few days.
That trough of low pressure will pull out and move to our east. In it's place, high pressure aloft (a ridge) will build into the east and temperatures will respond quickly, going from 40s today to near 70 by as early Wednesday. The good news is that once the ridge moves in it won't be in a hurry to leave. That's why we think most of the week will be dry. Our next chance for precipitation, and it's not a great chance, comes late Friday as a cold front approaches from the north. That means it's going to be moisture starved. Since the ground is still pretty saturated across central New York, this stretch of dry weather comes at a good time. The April sunshine and eventually a stregthening southwest wind will combine to create ideal drying conditions.
Jim
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As I mentioned in my last blog, I am in Atlanta this week so I thought I would pass along some things I've noticed down here. Whenever I come down here in the spring they seem to be about 4 to 6 weeks farther along in the spring season. All the trees are out and so is the pollen. My brother said is was particularly bad last weekend. Not only are the leaves out but the lawns are nice and green. That's a big change from last year at this time. Because of the drought it wasn't quite as green as normal. This year their rainfall in the Atlanta area is closer to normal. There are still a few signs of the drought, though. Downtown I saw a couple of water fountains that were dry with signs up that said they were conserving because of the drought.
Speaking of downtown Atlanta, there was still visible damage from a tornado that struck the city about a month ago. Many skyscraper windows are boarded/taped up and there was clean up work going on at the CNN Center.
Finally, I won't bore the non-golfers here with a long blog but yesterday I spent 2 1/2 hours in golf heaven. I was a 'patron' at the Masters. The whole process of getting the ticket and getting to Augusta itself is a story but let me just say I walked onto the course at 5:30 PM and it is everything you see on TV. Everything is a perfect green (except for the white scoreboards). They had a fog delay yesterday morning so I was still able to catch the final groups as they played the back nine. I stood behind the tee at 12 taking in Amen Corner then worked over to grandstands by the tee at 16. Saw K.J. Choi plunk one into the pond. The experience for me ranks right up there with going to Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park.
I see we are still on course for a cool down at the end of the weekend and early next week. So much for me bringing the warmth back to central New York!
Jim
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10:30 AM Tuesday, by Dave Longley - By taste I mean warm weather and sunshine, as opposed to the garlic scent wafting through my office from Rick Gary's recipe on Bridge Street.
Once again, we have that marine layer to our south across southern NY and Pennsylvania. Those low clouds tried to creep north, but have been stuggling to hold together. I think the sun/clouds forecast should hold through the afternoon. Dewpoints have come up some, into the mid 30s, and the breeze has come down some, but it's still there. Just a heads up if you're going to be out this evening, you might want to dress a little warmer than what you would think, given temps around 60. I know. I froze at Little League practice last night.
There's a cold front on the map to our west, but that won't be an issue today. It will remain just to our north and west. A second front will approach during the day Wednesday. We'll start out dry tomorrow, but I expect a period of midday cloudiness, which could bring a brief shower tomorrow afternoon.
Drier and slightly cooler air will arrive Thursday. That's fertilizer day for me. The darn wind has been too strong the past couple days to use the spreader. So we'll get it down Thursday, before the late-week rains. That should work out perfect. I like it when a plan comes together.
Dave
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Posted 10 AM Monday, Dave Longley - After a beautiful, sunny, Sunday, clouds have crept back into CNY. A little different set up with this one. High pressure parked well off to our northeast is responsible for the cloudiness. The clockwise wind flow around that high has set up a southeast wind flow, right toward us from the Atlantic Ocean. We'll need some patience, but I still feel that we will be able to brighten things up this afternoon. The eastern edge of this cloud shield is eroding away with dry air coming at us from New England. What I think will happen is that as the sun gets higher, mixing from the sun, will stir up the lower atmosphere, drying up the clouds. The ceiling height is 3200 feet at 9 AM, and this time of year, the sun can mix the lower atmosphere to a depth of up to 5000 feet. So hang in there, we should see developing sun by Noon.
Temperatures should be in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon, but we will still see some gusty southeast winds blowing between 10 and 20 mph. Dewpoints are in the low 30s, so one good thing is that the breeze, along with our developing sun this afternoon, will help to dry out wet yards that many of us are looking forward to getting out and doing some work in.
Temperatures look to remain mild through this week, as a fairly persistent trough sets up in the western US, pumping up a ridge in the jet stream over the eastern US. That's great. What's not so great is that trough is forecast to translate eastward across the county, taking up residence in the Northeastern US next week. This will lead to a prolonged period of crummy, damp and chilly weather. Yes, I think there will be some snowflakes in the air next week. So, let's get out and enjoy this week's weather!
Dave
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I’ve heard it said that March can be the cruelest month in central New York. There are all those signs of spring that I’ve mentioned in past blogs but there is still winter weather to deal with. During March 2008 there were far too few tastes of spring. For the whole of the month the average temperature in Syracuse was 2 degrees below normal. Only twice during the last two weeks of the month did our high temperature climb above ‘normal’
Sometimes, though, when I think we do something unusual meteorologically speaking in Syracuse I find myself a bit surprised. It was cooler than normal this past March and when I looked at the individual days one thing popped out at me. We only exceeded 50 degrees three times and two of those times were early in the month. I figured that hitting 50 degrees only three times in the month of March must be pretty unusual so I started to dig through the climate data base. I was wrong. There have been 10 years in the past when March has had only one or even no days at 50 degrees or warmer. As recently as 2001 we went through the entire month of March without making it to 50 degrees. March 2008 wasn’t as unique or as ‘bad’ as you think!
And speaking of ‘bad’ here are some more notes about Caribou Maine. I think I’m becoming a bit obsessive about this city. We are now into April and as I write this (April 3rd) they still have more than 30” of snow on the ground! They have gone more than 50 days straight with at least 30 inches of snow on the ground. While we were struggling to reach 50 degrees in March it was a struggle for Caribou to reach 40 degrees. They did it on only two occasions in March.
Next week there probably won’t be a post from me. I will be traveling to where it is warmer—Atlanta and I will be taking my golf clubs with me. I’ll see if I can bring back some mild weather with me.
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Posted 9 AM Thursday - Dave Longley - .jpg) It looks like Mother Nature will give a present to the Chiefs today, with plenty of sunshine for the start of the new baseball season. The new grass field sure looks great, in spite of the delay in the arrival of warm weather. Actually, they couldn't expect to do much better than low 50s for the 3rd day of April. The normal high for this time of year is 51.
Today's game is the first of an 8-game homestand that continues through next Thursday. We may have some rain problems tomorrow, but things will be warming up and drying out over the weekend.
One thing I looked up today was the UV Index. It's forecast to be at 5, which means if you're particularly sensitive to the sun, and you plan on sitting in the sunny sections of the park, it'd be a good idea to put on some sun block. You know, the sun is as strong now as it is on Labor Day, so just a word of precaution there.
-Dave
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Posted 10 AM Wednesday - Dave Longley - Skies have cleared nicely, with dry air rushing in from the north and west. We had a few flurries this morning, but they've gone away. While the sun will be nice, the temperature and wind won't be. Strong low pressure across the St. Lawrence and high pressure moving our way from the lower Great Lakes will keep the wind going strong today. The strongest winds were last night, when we gusted to 54 mph just before 8 PM. As of 10 this morning, we're still gusting to near 30 mph. Couple that with temperatures only in the low 30s, and wind chills are in the low 20s. The other killer today is the dry air. Yesterday we had dewpoint in the low 50s!! Today they're in the teens!! Remember, the dewpoint is the measure of how much moisture is in the air. The higher the dewpoint the more humid it feels. After the bone-dry arctic air of late, those 50s felt good yesterday. Today's teens dewpoints are certainly adding some extra bite.
The weather will stay quiet for the homeopener of the Chiefs on Thursday. We've had calls regarding the weather, and frankly, for April 3rd, the weather looks fantastic! We'll have bright sunshine through the day, with just some high clouds coming in over us during the afternoon. First pitch is at 2, and I figure the temperature will be in the upper 40s to near 50. We've got to overcome a chilly start, with many locations in the low to mid 20s for morning lows tomorrow. Be sure to bring along the sunscreen and sit in the sun!
The clouds later tomorrow will be in advance of our next weather maker, which at this point looks to be a rain storm Friday.
-Dave
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Posted 9 AM Tuesday - Dave Longley - A strong area of low pressure on the weather map over the northern Great Lakes, will continue to strengthen as it moves toward Quebec by later today. Southerly winds have warmed us to 60 as of 9 this morning, and based on the precip-free radar immediately upwind of us, we should be able to get into the mid 60s.
I've been watching a line of showers march eastward toward us, and as of 9 this morning, it was just entering western NY. We'll likely see a few rounds of showers from later this morning into this afternoon as a cold front moves through our area. Yes, that front will bring an end to our mild weather, almost as quickly as it got in here. Showers will taper off this afternoon and I would expect some sun to get out before sunset today (7:31 PM)
Strong southerly winds will give way to westerly winds, and we'll likely see winds pick up from the west to between 20 and 40 mph late today and tonight.
I got an e-mail from someone living on Oneida Lake that the ice sheet is moving, so with the type of winds we're expecting tonight and Wednesday, we could see the ice pileup and cause some damage along the eastern shore of Oneida Lake.
We'll see lots of sun tomorrow, but I would still expect winds in the 15-30 or perhaps even 20-30 mph range through tomorrow. If you need a couple of dry days strung together, Wednesday and Thursday are your days. Some more rain is likely Friday.
Dave
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Posted 8:45 AM Monday - Dave Longley - A warm front to our south is slowly lumbering its way toward Central New York. Quite a bit of rain has broken out in advance of that front, tied to a jet stream disturbance moving overhead. We've picked up over a half inch of rain this morning! Thankfully, temperatures are just a smidge above freezing, or we'd have big troubles with freezing rain.
The larger radar view at http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/northeast.gif shows that the widespread rain is becoming a bit more broken up to our west. Until that warm front moves through, I'm keeping rain in the forecast today, but at least we may get a few rain-free periods this afternoon.
That warm front will make a nice push north through Central New York tonight. I think temperatures may actually rise tonight on a strengthening south wind, into the 50s by Tuesday morning! We're still forecasting highs in the mid and upper 60s tomorrow afternoon. This forecast hinges on the fact that we get some sun out tomorrow afternoon. Computer models are indicating some breaks in the overcast in the afternoon. If we do get that warm, and we can get enough humidity up our way, there could be a couple of strong thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, I don't see all the ingredients coming together, but there is forecast to be some pretty beefy mid-level wind fields tomorrow over us, so any storms that do get going will be able to tap into those.
If you want to read more on our severe potential tomorrow, check out http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
A strong cold front will come through here late tomorrow, and behind it some unseasonably chilly air will arrive Wednesday. It still looks like the sun gets out, but temperatures will struggle to warm into the low 40s! There will be a pretty stiff NW wind as well.
By the way. The winter jacket has been retired. I'll shiver, and I'll try hard not to go back. It's Spring pullover time.
-Dave
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