Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

KBC — Wed, 28 May 2008 00:15:49 GMT

WNYS weather sucks

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

MC — Wed, 28 May 2008 01:26:54 GMT

So you guys ready to change your summer forecast since it looks like this cool and unsettled air is ready to stay right into June? 50's in late May isn't looking too good for summer right now

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

meowmix — Wed, 28 May 2008 02:06:14 GMT

yes - seriously weather guys - looks like lots of atmospheric blocking in greenland right through July meaning temperatures right through then will look just like May....

time to change the summer forecast to cooler and rainier than normal.

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Jim Teske — Wed, 28 May 2008 02:29:34 GMT

10:15 PM update...

49 here in Syracuse as of 10 PM and the dewpoint is now at 38 so we will probably stick with the forecasted low for the city.

44 in Tully, Marcellus and Fenner (Madison County)

No change in the summer forecast. In fact, I don't think we've changed a seasonal forecast once we issue it. That's the way it goes. We give ourselves one shot at it and that's that.

I do see a couple of things that do encourage me a bit after the first of June. One, the PNA (the Pacific-North American Pattern) is forecast to go negative which would imply throughing and cooler weather out west. Second, the models that far out have been showing signs of building a ridge and warmer weather in the East. That's about a week and a half out. I am one to take model forecasts that far out with a grain of salt but like I said those are encouraging signs. We'll see what things look like in another week.

Jim

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Gardener — Wed, 28 May 2008 13:02:16 GMT

I think I may have lost my tomato crop last night even though I covered them.

I also think car insurance and dfghjkjhgfd need a good ass kicking because they are A-holes.

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Sal — Wed, 28 May 2008 16:39:01 GMT

I think we better keep a close eye on our tomato plants again tonight. It's only 56 degrees right now in Lyons (12:30 p.m.). A 20 degree drop tonight and we're in trouble again. Sure doesn't feel like the last week of May.
I'm still holding out hope that the summer outlook DOES come through for us and we turn things around the next 3 months.

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Sal — Wed, 28 May 2008 16:44:47 GMT

I just clicked over to the ACCU WEATHER site and one of their meteorologists Henry Margusity has issued his summer forecast and he's now saying the northeast will continue to see below normal temps right through the summer. he claims all the heat will remain out west. That said, maybe tonight won't be the LAST night we need to worry about our tomato plants!

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Jim Teske — Wed, 28 May 2008 17:14:08 GMT

Looks like another night to keep an eye out for mid 30s and frost. One thing working in our favor for temperatures warmer than last night is the fact we will be warmer today than we were yesterday afternoon. Late in the day Tuesday we were in the mid 50s while this afternoon we will get close to 60. This means we have farther to drop and given we are close to our shortest night of the year we only have about 8 hours to accomplish our overnight low.

That being said we do have to watch the dewpoint closely. As of 1 PM our dew point is 30 degrees. The thing to keep in mind is that our dewpoint on cool/dry days like this will likely be at it's lowest point early in the afternoon. As we get closer to sunset the dewpoint should come back up a bit.

Right now we are going for 39 here in Syracuse but a lot will hinge on how the dewpoint behaves later in the day. Currently Onondaga County is NOT in a frost advisory for tonight but many of the same counties that were under an advisory last night are. I'll try to keep you posted later today or this evening.

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Gardener — Wed, 28 May 2008 18:10:59 GMT

Question: What are you tomato growers out there using to cover your plants??

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

gardenertoo — Wed, 28 May 2008 18:23:34 GMT

Hey gardener, I use a light-weight fabric called remay or row cover. I bought a big roll online. As a matter a fact, I grow my tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, and melons under it (24/7) for most of June. I did not have to cover plants last night because they were already (and still are) covered.

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Jim Teske — Thu, 29 May 2008 00:33:58 GMT

8:30 PM update....the sun and setting and the temperature is starting to drop. When Dave Eichorn and I started digging into the details of the forecast for tonight we looked to our north into Canada. There is a cold front dropping south through Ontario province. Although the front doesn't get to CNY it will still have an impact on our weather. Winds are steady out of the west or southwest ahead of the front and that leads us to believe later tonight (after midnight) the wind might pick up a bit from Syracuse north. The wind might not be much (under 10 mph) but it could be enough to cancel out the dryness of the air (dewpoint still 31 degrees at 8 PM).

Jim

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Sal — Thu, 29 May 2008 11:07:23 GMT

Down to 38 at my house in Lyons this morning. Not as cold as yesterday morn but still a touch of frost. Let's hope this is it for frost worries until Oct.!

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HEY! — Thu, 29 May 2008 13:53:01 GMT

Hey Dave/Jim -

Do you guys see any coorelation with this May and May of 2002? That May we ended up -3.1 degrees below normal in temperature.....

Then June 02 - we were 2.1 degrees above normal with 2 days of 90+, July 02 we were 2.8 above normal with 10 90+ days, and August we were 3.8 degrees above normal with 11 days of 90+ (and 1 reading of 101)....

Maybe something to look at since we have a cool May and you are predicting a hot summer with lots of 90+ degree days? By the way - April 02 was also 3.0 degrees above normal...

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Jim Teske — Thu, 29 May 2008 14:41:57 GMT

Hey!

2002 didn't show up in the years we looked at for our summer forecast mainly because it was just outside the top ten warmest Aprils. It's probably up there in the top 15 or 20. There certainly some similarities there in 2002 compared to this spring.

Jim

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Drew — Fri, 30 May 2008 02:15:43 GMT

I am not 100% sure of this becuase I didn't see it on the NWS website anywhere, but I saw at work at Cornell today on a weather calendar for Ithaca that the old record low for this morning was 42 set back in 1902. Well....that 106 year old record got shattered this morning when the temperature dropped to 33!

Rather impressive, isn't it?

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Bonnie — Fri, 30 May 2008 17:15:50 GMT

I heard Dave L. say on the noon forecast that he is heading to the Chief's game tonight for Little League night. Phoenix Pop Warner is running a concession stand somewhere on the 3rd base side. Be sure to stop over there for a worthy cause to help support a local organization and get your snacks and drinks! I was going to work it, but I have my daughter's dance dress rehearsal tonight.

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

skipper10807 — Fri, 30 May 2008 18:14:49 GMT

HI Guys,

I have a Brownie Troop Camping @ Highland Forest...what are we in for on Saturday afternoon??? Are we talking popcorn T-storms or a line of storms???
I am hoping everthing will just fizzle out...lol

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

Drew — Fri, 30 May 2008 19:07:04 GMT

Checked that calendar again today....the record was actually 43, not 42 like I had said....

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Bonnie — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 14:27:46 GMT

Hard to believe looking at this week's forecast...60 yesterday and 90 5 days later! Gotta love CNY weather!!

re: Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

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