Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

DAVE — Thu, 08 May 2008 19:05:23 GMT

I THOUGHT MARCH AND APRIL WERE SUPPOSED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAY WAS SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE .....WHAT'S UP WITH THAT?

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Michael B — Fri, 09 May 2008 00:55:30 GMT

I looked at the 7 day forecast on another station and they are forecasting a high temperature(ha ha!)Monday of 46 degrees! According to NOAA archives that is only 2 degrees above the coldest maximum temperature for early to mid May ever! If this cold weather persists the entire month we will have the coldest May ever right after having one of the warmest Aprils ever. I really hate these blocking patterns!

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Jim Teske — Sat, 10 May 2008 11:11:05 GMT

Dave,

Just a clarification about the Spring Forecast....We thought that March and April would be below normal in temperature but there was no strong signal for May. Here is what I wrote in the blog on February 22nd:

In both cases, the La Nina and wet Februarys didn’t give us many clues for the month of May. They basically split almost down the middle between warmer and colder than normal Mays.

March was on target at -2.0 but April was a bust since it was the 3rd warmest on record.

I just found out that the Summer Forecast will come out this Wednesday not this Thursday as I previosuly stated.

Michael,

46 does seem a bit cool for Monday. Right now we are at the 3rd coolest May since 1949 but keep in mind we are only a third of the way through the month. Speaking of blocking patterns, one thing to keep and eye on for Monday is that the system we are watching keeps shifting to the south on our computer models. If this trend continues we may also end up on the fringe of this rain maker just like yesterday! These blocking patterns can be a real pain in the neck for us forecasters too!

Have a good weekend.

Jim

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Sal — Sat, 10 May 2008 11:48:50 GMT

Many weather sources are now indicating the very cool wet week once in the forecast is looking much more brighter. From what i can find, most are now saying only Monday will be the "bad" day and then warmer temps are in the offing for the balance of the week. Accuweather is now calling for 70 degree weather by the middle or end of the following week. Any thoughts form the channel 9 news team?

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Jim Teske — Sun, 11 May 2008 13:38:16 GMT

Sal,

As I mentioned above, forecasting in these blocking patterns is tricky at the very least. What I think we are seeing are the computer models (especially the GFS model) having problems moving storms systems too far north. It happened during the middle of the warm stretch at the end of April and then again this Friday. The models may be underestimating the strength of the block. This seems to be what's happening early next week. What looked to be wet weather Monday and Tuesday is now just a Monday event. We started to pick up on that trend at the end of last week. That also leads to the moderation in temperatures the rest of the week.

The models do point to a cool down at the end of next week and the early part of the following week, however, with the track record of the models that far out in time (7 to 10 days) over the last month I wouldn't start buying into that solution just yet. Stay tuned.

Jim

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Sal — Sun, 11 May 2008 21:09:49 GMT

Thanks for the insight Jim. I think you're on to something. yesterday when i wrote the blog the long range said 70's by the 20th or 21st of the month for our area. Now, it's back to cooler temps til the start of the Memorial Day weekend. So i think you
are right...don't buy into anything this far out.

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Bob Giacobbi — Mon, 12 May 2008 15:11:07 GMT

Dave, Cab you tell me when was the last time a "HAIL" storm went through Central Square.

Bob.

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Sal — Mon, 12 May 2008 16:25:17 GMT

Looks like we dodged another bullet...at least here in Lyons. The sun has been shinning for a couple of hours now and temps are already in the lower 60's. Really not a bad spring afternoon! I see the afternoon forecast is reflecting the milder temps.

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Jim Teske — Mon, 12 May 2008 17:46:27 GMT

Bob,

I'm not sure when the last time a hail storm moved through Central Square. I did a quick search of the airport numbers and the last time hail was reported there was May 21st 2006. Obviously there has been hail since then in central New York but to find that out would require a bit more work. You would probably have to go through day by day the the Storm Prediction Center Storm reports. Here is their web site:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/

If you knew roughly the time it happened you could enter in a date then scan to see if there were any reports from Central Square.

Jim

Jim

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Dave Skinner — Tue, 13 May 2008 16:07:21 GMT

Jim,

Why is it that you folks always use the "Average" values for the "Normal" values. Ever heard the phrase "averages are made up of extremes". Seriously, with a little coaching people would understand what a Standard Deviation is. Then you be able to use the first STDEV for "Normal". It is normal in January to have zero and below temperaturs but typically when you report on Temps you will say we are several degrees below "normal". I find this very sensational rather than helpful.

I appreciate the opportunity to comment. Thank you,

Dave

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Michael B — Wed, 14 May 2008 23:03:20 GMT

I see on the seven day forecast on one of the other stations that is forecasting below normal temperatures(mean temp. as well as high temp.)for all 7 days. In fact on 4 of the 7 days it will not even reach 60,leave alone 70 where it should be this time of year! Are we in for a very prolonged period of below normal temperatures(probably from another blocking pattern)? Say it isn't so,Jim or Dave!

re: Teske's Tidbits (5/8/08) The One About April Sunshine

Jim Teske — Thu, 15 May 2008 10:53:53 GMT

Sorry for the delay in responding. I've been busy getting the Summer Outlook ready.

Dave,

Thanks for the comments about 'normal' I actually blogged about this last October 31st. To see it click back on the calendar to the right side of our web page.

Michael,

I would say we are in store for cool weather into the middle of next week. Beyond the middle of next week there are two camps in our computer models. The GFS holds onto the trough in the East and keeps it cool into the Memorial day weekend. The European model, meanwhile, has been very agressive in pulling the trough out and actually building a ridge over us by next weekend. This would mean much warmer weather than what the GFS is advertising. Even though this is beyond the range of our official forecast I'm at least encouraged by what the Euro is showing. It's been doing a better job in forecasting this spring than the GFS. So don't give up hope for the Memorial Day weekend just jet.

Jim