Wow, This is Nice!

re: Wow, This is Nice!

Zach — Tue, 06 May 2008 19:23:32 GMT

I see 55 is the expected high for next Monday. Long way off, but do you think we will remain in the 50's after that?

re: Wow, This is Nice!

Sal — Tue, 06 May 2008 19:54:12 GMT

Looks like many weather sources are saying cooler weather for much of next week in the northeastern part of the country. It always seems to get wet and cold around Mother's day every year, though I think last year was an exception to that.

re: Wow, This is Nice!

Michael B — Tue, 06 May 2008 22:33:18 GMT

One of the other stations is forecasting a high(That's a joke!)temperature next Monday of 49 degrees-that's 18 degrees below normal! Why is it going to be so cold,Dave? How long will the frigid-yes, frigid-weather last?

re: Wow, This is Nice!

Jim Teske — Tue, 06 May 2008 22:59:52 GMT

Michael B,

The reason for the switch to cooler weather is one of those blocking patterns we talk about from time to time. This block, or area of high pressure, will be located between Greenland and Labrador. This will force the jet stream winds aloft to our south later in the weekend and early next week.

There are still some questions as to how the rest of next week will unfold but the GFS model and at least some of it's ensemble members are pointing to a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere somewhere over the Great Lakes or Northeast through the middle of the month. As we get farther along in time we'll see if we start to get more agreement from the computer models. If this verifies that would certainly mean below normal temperatures for an extended period.

Meanwhile, in the shorter term, there looks like there may be some thunder late Wednesday afternoon over the Finger Lakes. The true warm front (the leading edge to upper 70 degree warmth) will be located there and any storms could get helped along by a lake breeze off of Lake Erie. Also of note, we saw that late in the day the winds aloft begin to pick up. That tells us that there may be some gusty winds (30 mph >) in any storms that do form. A better chance for storms elsewhere across central New York Wednesday night as a cold front swings through.

Also, we are sticking with the GFS for the start of the weekend and keeping things dry for Saturday around here.

That's all for now.

Jim

re: Wow, This is Nice!

Michael B — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:16:52 GMT

Thanks for the info,Jim. I have one other question for you. Are these blocking patterns more prevalent in the Spring that the other seasons? I have noticed in the NOAA weather archives that most Springs over the years there has been at least one spell of prolonged below normal temperatures.

re: Wow, This is Nice!

Sal — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:27:25 GMT

I have to agree with Michael B. It seems there's always a cold spell right around Mother's day every year. If my memory is right, other than last year, I think most Mother's days and the week before or after seems to be wet and cold.

re: Wow, This is Nice!

dlongley — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:40:32 GMT

Michael & Sal,

You are correct that in recent memory (2005-2007) there has been some chilly weather during the middle of May. I don't have any numbers to back up when blocking is most prevalent but it seems to show up most noticeably in mid to late winter. February 2007 with all the lake effect snow is the most dramatic example. I think it has happened during the summer recently but off hand i can't recall the year.

Jim