Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

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Anonymous — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 15:00:58 GMT

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re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

Sal — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 15:05:55 GMT

Never thought I'd be saying this on April 23, but we DO need rain. Go figure!
Dave, I see starting early next week, we may be going the other way in the temp department. Is this a short term or long term weather pattern change? I can remember some pretty horrible early Mays here in Central NY. For instance, how many Mother's days were washouts or cold enough to wear a winter jacket over the past years? More than I can remember. So anyway, long term cool down, or short term?

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

UpstateNY — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:28:41 GMT

How about the Mother's Day snowstorm, remember that? Ekkk! Hopefully not repeated anytime soon! I saw one report of 40's for next Tuesday--hope that's way too low. Lovin' this weather!

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

Sal — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 19:18:11 GMT

Oh boy..check out the NWS discussion. Saying there could be flurries or snow showers at night starting Monday and lasting through Wed of next week.
What do think about that, guys?

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

Paul — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 20:58:28 GMT

Hey Sal. Grab a paper bag and hold it over your mouth and take deep long breaths or maybe you should put that Viagara away for a few days! Channel 9 has the lowest temps around as always. By this Friday, they will raise there temps into the low to mid 50's for highs. It looks like we may be having a frost during those nights but thats common for this time of the year. It looks like we will be going back into the same pattern we have sen over the Northeast after next week with more dry weather and bright skys. Lets not forget that dominating ridge of high pressure over the south during the whole winter. They have all seen drought conditions down there since December and that ridge has lifted north and now dominates the Northeast's weather. The long range GFS is showing mid 70s and sun but no rain but thats ok because didnt Dave E tell us that we should have a cold wet Spring? I think maybe his long range needs some fine tuning. Isnt that right Teske!!!!

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

Sal — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 21:28:35 GMT

Hey Paul,
Thanks for the brown bag idea. I feel it helping me already. I kinda like the Viagara though! I'm keeping it! Hope you're right about the GFS long range. After this wonderful stretch of delightful weather, it's hard to take anything less.

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

adamgoss23 — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 22:00:03 GMT

Dave I gotta say this weather is great but you know as well as anybody that this weather is coming to an end. All due to a blocking ridge of high pressure that allowed Syracuse to be the warmest city in the northeast on Sunday with a HIgh of 78 degrees and just 24 hours prior from that Syracuse had a record high of 87 set. Remember at the beginning of the week where we couldnt even get out of the 40s on April 13 the high reached 44 and it was 49 on Monday April 14th. I love this weather the trees are really in bloom which doesnt happen until at least Mid May but we need a pattern shift or some rain around the area. This is not normal to be having brush fires in April here in Central NY. Its also been above average for a week now which is great to have the windows open at night and the heat off finally. Do this in a week. Heat on at night to having a fan in the window for more then 3 nights in a row. This is also good because it gives everyone a chance to clean up the yard outside as well

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

dlongley — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 23:39:31 GMT

7:30 update....Well, we ended up with a severe thunderstorm warning south of Syracuse this evening with the storms. Activity will start to shift east here over the next couple of hours.

The cooldown next week has been forecast for days by the Euro and Canadian and the GFS is now on board. It's only a 1 or 2 day affair though, as the ridge tries to pump back up in the east later next week. Some of the GFS runs I saw early this morning indicated we wouldn't get out of the 40s next Tuesday/Wednesday. I didn't bite because of the tendency for the GFS to be too cold in terms of long range cooldowns. The 12Z GFS was downright chilly, with 850s approaching -9C by Wednesday morning. Certainly cool enough for some snowflakes to mix in. The new 18Z GFS is warmer, with the coldest 850 temp around 0C or so. Certainly enough to end our streak of 70s. We'll see what the new runs have tomorrow.

You've read reference to the Greenland block, and the upper pattern is quite amplified with that mid Atlantic ridge rearing its head from time to time. For the next couple weeks we should see some fairly sizeable swings from cool to quite warm and back. Let's all remember that this is late April. We're in the midst of record setting stuff. If we can get highs in the 70s the next 3 days, this will be the longest streak of 70 degree warmth in April we've EVER seen. Truly incredible.

Dave

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

Jim Teske — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 23:59:38 GMT

8PM Update...While Syracuse ended up with enough rain late this afternoon to knock the dust down (a trace) there was some heavier rain over the Finger Lakes and now over the counties south of Syracuse. There was even a report of hail in Seneca Falls during news time as the storms briefly flared up. A weakening trend started around 6:30 PM and should continue as we are nearing sunset and losing any chance for additional warming.

To add to what Dave said earlier the 12z GFS was cold implying some snowflakes and temperatures in the low 40s Wednesday. Since the GFS tends to be a bit too cold that far out in time we didn't bite on the snow scenario but we do think temperatures will be below normal during the middle of next week. It will be interesting to see how far down those last couple days of the month knock our April temperature anomaly. Right now we are about 7 degrees above normal and we may add to that through Saturday before the cool down begins.

Jim

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

Bonnie — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:41:22 GMT

Boy it sure seems like it's from one extreme to the other. But I have to say...I've been talking of opening my pool since January and it's finally done!! Now just have to wait for it to warm up a bit :) Bring on the warm temps to stay!!

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

MO — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:27:50 GMT

Mr Longley Can you reccommend any good "college level" books on meteorology? I'm looking for something fairly in-depth to learn more about weather and how forecasting works.

Thanks!

re: Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

Kathy — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 18:19:02 GMT

Bonnie, I knew you would be opening that pool already! You and my aunt! I'm waiting until June - I guess I'm too cheap to start running the filter, yet.

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