Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Bonnie — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 17:26:54 GMT

Looks like another yucky February!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

jon ch — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 17:27:59 GMT

dave , you might want to upgrade that report. the storm front is above syracuse and moving east ; for tuesday there are no signs if fronts on thew US weather report doppler ; as far as lake effect snow goes, temperatures will change to the higher and the cold front will dissapear north with a high system moving in producing seasonal temperatures 35 degrees.this is my guesstimation. im not a proffessional meteorologist; but my astrological weather forecasting is accurate most of the time. my place of reference is syracuse ; south east and westr .

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Skwerlboy — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 18:30:56 GMT

The snow just keeps piling up here in Minetto!!! Up to 44 inches as of 1:15pm. Where are all the other reports/bloggers?!? It can't just be snowing like this over my house....Can it? It's incredible....I just giggle everytime I look outside!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

lennyb — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 18:54:00 GMT

Dave, got up a half hour early this morning expecting to see at least 8-10 inches as forcasted and had nothing. I live in Pennellville ( southern oswego county ) and all we had when I left for work was flurries and as of 9:00am the sun was out. Thanks for being wrong again. I realize lake effect is very localized and 2 miles can make a big diff. but you made my day!!!! Now what about tomorrow?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Dustin — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 19:23:30 GMT

Are you forecasting any big storms for the rest of the year with the data that you currently have?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

AMY W — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 19:25:18 GMT

I Live in Scriba and we have about 16 inches here. Snow still lightly falling as of 2:22 , but my neice lives in the city of Oswego and she said it is a white out there. Where ever it is snowing bad you all can keep it. I dont want anymore. This is about the same time we got hit last year too if i am not mistaken isnt it? Well all who have to drive, drive careful and have fun if you kids go out and play.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

hopingforsnow — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 19:55:20 GMT

Still hoping for snow here in Rome.....We had about 4 inches last night, but would like some more....I went to school at SUNY Oswego ('94-'98) and LOVED the storms we had there! All of you that live there are lucky!!!!!!!!!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

jim — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 20:01:41 GMT

Come on people! Everytime Dave or Jim give us an update on the weather, a bunch of people write in to ask what the weather is going to be like in a week or a month. To the one guy above who asked if they were forecasting any storms for the rest of the year?!? It February for Pete's sake! Let the guys worry about TOMORROW before they worry about the rest of the year!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

joe16 — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 20:22:45 GMT

Is there an estimate on the snow to liquid ratio for Tuesday/ Tuesday Night's storm?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

the — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 21:15:24 GMT

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Jay — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 21:37:52 GMT

Wondering if you have anything for a possible noreaster this weekend?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Marguerite Ringwood — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 22:09:14 GMT

The whiteout Sunday afternoon was the worst weather I have ever seen in Central New York. I saw in the mornings paper that there were two pile ups as a result of the whiteout. What are you supposed to do if you are caught driving in those weather conditions?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

dlongley — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 22:19:34 GMT

5:17 PM Update - I'll keep the comments for this lake effect event in the other blog we have running. As for Tuesday's event, winter storm watches are in effect for all of central New York. The 12Z NAM was printing out .48" of qpf. Teske and I were figuring about a 15:1 ratio, given temps initially in the low 20s when the snow starts. That would put us in the neighborhood of 6 or 7 inches. The issue we'll have to deal with as we go through tomorrow is how much if any sleet or freezing rain will mix in. The GFS was more emphatic on the warmth getting into CNY in the midlevels, which would mean sleet or freezing rain. The bottom line is that this looks to be a quick hit of snow, and the worst will be over by the time we head out Wednesday morning.

-Dave

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Dave — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:17:44 GMT

Driving in a whiteout, slow down when the conditions warrant. If the speed limit is 65. It dosen't mean 65 is safe all the time. Never ever stop in the middle of one. Some one driving 75 in scattered whiteouts will end up rear ending you. If drivers would drive slower in bad weather. Pile ups wouldn't happen.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Chris — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:21:26 GMT

Dave Longley. You are forecasting this clipper for Tues/Wed to be 6-7 inches. That seems a little drastic. The weather channel and local are all in agreement for 1-3. Notihing serious. And as far as the lake effect shifting into the city of syracuse during mark chaplins updates for the monday morning time, lets just say WOW!! I couldnt figure out all Sunday night why you guys had this forecast. Everyone was saying far northern portions of Onondaga County. Yes I did see your update on the blogg Sunday night stating this. But my question is why was that so far off. Mark Chaplin even said the band would shift into the Auburn area? I looked at the models all day and all they showed was the band to northern portions of Onondaga during early am hours then re-shifting north after 800am. I mean WOW!! Not to mention Mark telling us 3-6 likely in the city of Syracuse. This very accurate forecast could have cost me thousands of dollars for scheduling. I know lake effect isnt the most predictable but we need to just say we blew this forcaste bad. It concerns me why the data was so off in your office. Now as far as this upcoming clipper, 6-7 inches? I just dont see this possible. Reallt over forecasted agian. We'll see i guess.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

The Snowman said — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:38:33 GMT

I love snow. It is my life!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Coffeeguy — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 01:03:47 GMT

I really enjoy this blog and all the info that comes from it and has helped me with planning already.
Now to everyone that hops on and complains about the "forecasts" which when I went to school meant "prediction of what we think should/may happen" I am making a suggestion.
Let them put together their forecast and the channel 9 guys can display it for the public to see and compare the overall results on a ongoiing basis to them.
In other words Step forward and make those preditictions ahead of time and in full view and scrutiny of the public like these guys do everyday.I know the guys have been wrong before and will be wrong again from time to time but it's forecasting not Auditing of what has already happened and unless Mother Nature starts a conversation with them it will never be an absolute Science!
Stepping off my soap box now.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Zach — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 01:19:50 GMT

I am also wondering about a Nor'easter late this weekend like Jay as the possibility has been thrown out there by other stations. Just hoping for some snow other than east of the lake.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

GSB Snowman — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 02:52:58 GMT

I just looked at doppler and it looks like that snow band that has been pounding Oswego just took a sharp shift to the south in the last 20 minutes or so. It doesn't look to be as intense as it was but I'm wonderring if DaCuse will be getting any LES tonight?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Mark — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 03:04:58 GMT

I totally agree with Chris is this eailer post. Nobody is perfect, but I would love an explanation from maybe Dave or Teske as to WHY Mark said the CITY would see 3-6. WTVH and WSTM--Yes even Mike Brookings who I think is TERRIBLE said Syracuse would only see a Dusting to an Inch. I don't know about anyone else in here, but I have a really hard time even relying on the weather forecasts on the weekends. The "3rd Stringers" just don't seem to know what they are doing, and it wasn't just this weekend............Is there an explanation?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

NorthBayLight — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 04:17:53 GMT

I just wanted to chime in and say GREAT JOB GUYS. You all do the best you can at predicting the often unpredictable weather. Weather changes by the hour....especially with snow storms. The news team here has done a FANTASTIC job for the many, many years I have been watching them. Kudos, guys!
Loving the snowfall totals for tomorrow's storms....hopefully we'll be able to get at least SOME value out of our snowmobiles this year!!!

LET IT SNOWWWWWWWW!!!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Jan Sterling — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 10:40:46 GMT

I have access to the Joint Air Force Army Weather Info. Network (JAAWIN) and their MM5 model (admittedly and old run valid 18Z 11 Feb) was indicating 6-12" for the Syracuse area followed by some freezing rain.
What is the most recent accumulations for Redfield, Oswego etc?

Jan Stering

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

matt — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 11:23:59 GMT

whats up the warm air - every storm we've gotten has eventually turned to rain this winter! Are we ever going to get one storm that is just snow?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

dlongley — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 12:14:22 GMT

Posted 6:30 AM Tuesday by Dave Longley - Great comments here, let's keep the discussion going. As for this storm tonight being a clipper and not having much moisture, that couldn't be farther from the truth. All you have to do is look at the radar to our south and west this morning, and it is filling up with moisture as we speak. 50+kts of a low level jet at 850 bringing in that warm and moist air into our area tonight. A big dip in the jet stream will help send that Gulf Moisture our way and eventually spawn a nor'easter near New York City Wednesday afternoon. The models are printing out close to an inch of qpf from late today through early Wednesday. That may overdone some though. We should see anywhere from 3-6" or 4-8" of snow accumulation by midnight tonight, before we start to mix in sleet and freezing rain. The precip could go over to all rain, especially south of Syracuse, come Wednesday morning.

Everything will start to wind down Wednesday.

-Dave

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

dlongley — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 12:48:56 GMT

One other thing....the NWS has upgraded the watches to warnings. I was just looking at the 6Z NAM and it's even a bit warmer, so that mix in with ice is quite likely, after midnight. Precip amount is down some, around .80 for the event. New data will be coming in shortly.

-Dave

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Bonnie — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 13:04:33 GMT

Chris I watch the weather channel all the time, and they NEVER, and I mean NEVER even get our forecasted temperatures right. Watch them for about a month straight every day and what they forecast, compare it to what our guys here forecast, and see who hits the nail on the head more often than not. I guarantee you it will be these guys here.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

SnowDay — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 13:15:57 GMT

Written By: Henry Margusity from AccuWeather.com

Cold Air Holds Its Ground...Storm Update
Tuesday, February 12, 2008

STORM ATTACKS THE COLD AIR...MODELS TRYING TO WARM THINGS UP TOO FAST. LOTS OF SURPRISES OVERNIGHT.

The thunderstorms are feeding north into the cold air and that has resulted in heavy snow developing across parts of Kentucky and ice in the same place it's been all day. My spy in Louisville said 4 inches so far and I can believe that. Where the cold air is holding on across Ohio, high snow ratios will result in a lot more snow than first thought. That will be the case the farther we go as well despite the models saying it's going to warm up real fast tomorrow. The sounding out of Nashville is showing a 40-knot southwest wind and the 850 mg 32-degree line is moving north, so all that heavy snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain. I am concerned for heavy icing in Kentucky up through Ohio after the snow is over. All the models suggest a lot of liquid is coming north over the low-level cold air that is in place. I think tomorrow will be a lot of catching up as areas where it was supposed to warm up don't due to the extent of just how cold and dry the air became over the last 24 hours. I think some of you snow lovers may be pleasantly surprised by this storm.

Dave, What does the new data say? How much snow and ice do you expect for Southern Onondaga and Southern Madison counties? Do you think any schools will dismiss early today? Do you think there is going to be a snow day for some schools tomorrow?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Jan Sterling — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 13:19:36 GMT

The JAAWIN MM5 model run valid at 0600Z 12 Feb also has also backed off on snow accumulations for Central NY predicting around 6" in Syracuse. The trend since late fall 2002 has been for models to track systems farther to the NW on later model runs. I followed the JAAWIN runs as the Air Force invested heavily in that model. However, I don't think its performance is substantially better than other models.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Chris — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 13:34:34 GMT

I am not here to disagree with the great job that they do. I am not here to upset other people. Lets not get off the topic here. The topic was why was there a forecast for the city of syr monday morning and auburn to see the band shift into the city when no body else and I mean noone else. TNeither the models or other forecasts were saying this? Thats the question. Not the weather channel, not the temps, Im talking about sundays hype of the lake effect. Was there data supporting this? The data I looked at all day Sunday was showing very far northern Onondaga. Can the channel 9 storm team please comment on this. Im just curious. As far as me calling this next snow event Tues/Wed a clipper, well poor choice of a weather word. Lets call it a storm or just a weather maker. Dave L logged onto to make it very clear that this is far from a clipper, but had nothing to say about the 6-8 inches forecasted by Mark C all day Sunday. Hmmmm?
I value everyone at news channel 9. I appreciate there communication through the day and through weather events with this blogg. Even before the blogg they still had a level of forecasting that blows people away because they are awesome. I dont want this to turn into a bash. Its not. If the question goes unanswered so be it. Sorry if this came out rude.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

snplw — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 13:52:56 GMT

Jan, what time is it here in CNY when it is 0600Z?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Kippy — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 14:09:37 GMT

Chris, I have only lived here in Central New York for 17 years and if there is one thing I find hard to predict it's lake effect and the direction of the winds. I'm sure the models showed the winds moving the snowband closer to the city, and if that happened I'm sure Mark would have been right on.

I watch weekend news every Sat. and Sun. morning. I think Mark, Dave, Jim, and Dave all do a great job.

Mother nature sometimes has a mind of her own...

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Jan Sterling — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 14:23:25 GMT

Snplw, we are 5 hrs behind GMT. Therefore 0600Z or UTC is 0100 here.
JS

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

snplw — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 15:27:45 GMT

That is what I thought ot was, thanks.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Doug — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 15:31:02 GMT

Hi Guys,

Is that east to west lake effect from Rochester to Toronto occuring right now? Or is it a trick of the doppler?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

OSU MET STUDENT — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 15:39:10 GMT

Hi everyone,
It looks like we got a pretty good discussion going on about todays anticipated snowfall and of course the LES event that some of us just experienced. With regards to the LES event, this was probably one of the more difficult ones to predict wrt posityioning of the band as well as 850mb winds which are basically the steering mechanism of the LES bands. Most models had the band pretty much where it was the whole preiod ( C.Oswego Cty). What happens with alot of these events is that the lakes themselves create a lake incuded trough ( basically a low pressure system) which in turn allow the winds aloft to maintain more of a westward component as opposed to a NW component! There are many elements that we still have not figured out yet WRT LES evnets, thereofre froecasting these events can become very challenging at times.
Now for the main event, the synoptic system thats on our doorstep waiting to make a grand entrance VIA the Ohio Valley. This system has quite a bit of bust potential, meaning the forecasts that are out for this event can go either way. The models up until now and still now are having a tough time with the thermal advection thats progged for later today and tonight. Do I see it changing over? yes but the question remains, to what and for how long. I don't think we ever go over to plain old rain and the reason is, by the time the warm air penetrates the lower levels enough in order for the change over to occur, most of the precip should be long gone by then and we will probably go over to a period of FZDZ. Then as the system departs, the cold will rush back in and probably provide a period of light snow or flurries and then again it might now!! One other thought before I go. Do we all remember DEC 15-16th, I do fairly well because we were forecasted to get 18-24" 24 hrs prior to the event. Remember what happened with that storm, yeah the same thing thats suppose to happen to this storm. We were forecasted to go ever to plain rain and we never made it because of the low level easterly wind!! East wind doesn't transport warm air, a southerly wind does!! Just something to keep in mind on this fine morning of FEB 12, 2008. Currently we have an E wind.

I'll chime in later with an update!! Everyone have a wonderful day!!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

dlongley — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 16:16:05 GMT

Doug, very observant! That stripe of blue on LD9 over Lake Ontario is indeed lake effect on an easterly wind. 24 hours ago it was dumping 4 to 5 inches of snow per hour in Minetto. Now, the fish don't even know what's going on!

Dave

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Doug — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 16:37:48 GMT

Too bad the wind over the fetch is only 25km/h, eh! Imagine a metropolis getting Minetto snow! They're only expecting 10cm this afternoon. Coulda been a fun few hours!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

dlongley — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 16:54:50 GMT

Posted 11:45 AM, Dave Longley - Boy, you all have been busy. Thought I'd post one more thought before the Noon. Snow is now moving into the southern Tier of NY. Still looks like a 3 or 4 PM arrival as we've got to overcome some low level dry air. The new NAM and GFS runs just in print out about 4 or 5 inches of snow before we start mixing with sleet. So, we're going to go with 3-6 inches of snow (it should come down hard at times into this evening), then a mixing in of sleet and freezing rain. This changeover time could be anytime after 9 tonight. The models are a bit later, but our experience tells us that we see ice sooner rather than later. That continues from around midnight right up to sunrise. We could actually change to just plain rain around 7 tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. The 12Z GFS strongly hints at that, but so too does the 12Z NAM. It's possible (actually, I'm going to show a TimeCast of temperatures in the Noon show) that we get as warm as 35 or 36 before Noon Wednesday.

Steady snow, rain and ice will taper to flurries by Wednesday afternoon. We should drop into the mid 20s by late tomorrow, but BUF could be in the teens by late tomorrow.

-Dave

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

coffeeguy — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 18:28:04 GMT

Question as this storm moves off to the east will it create some pull across Lake Ontario and generate any Lake Effect tomorrow?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

marley — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 18:39:16 GMT

Again - the same storm pattern again and again - why do you guys hype higher snow totals when you just consistently bring them down as it gets closer to snowing? Experience should tell you with this warm-winter pattern we just keep getting 2" of snow and then plain rain, with hardly no ice thrown in, regardless of the hype that surrounds all these 'possible ice storms' that never happen?

I'd say we'd be LUCKY to get 2" of snow out of this, before it turns to sloppy cold rain AGAIN, as usual. If it keeps happening again and again - why not use common meteorological sense and not just relying on the models that hype nothingness?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Snow Luver — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 18:57:53 GMT

Question for Dave/Jim. The main news channel 9 home page says winter storm to impact cny 3-6inches. Then if you look to the left of the home page there is a tv picture of Dave L showing 2-4 inches tonight. Then if you click on the 7 day forecast where it shows the short tem forecast at the top of the page it says 4-8 inches. Then if you look at the forecast text it says 3-6inches before the change over. Now I know we might get inches in sleet when it changes over which would make those 3-6 become 4-8 inches but my question is how much actual measurable snow on the pavement will we see?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

newsnomobiler — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 19:23:30 GMT

You guys are brutal. What kind of beating would these guys take if they said 2-4 inches and it ended up being 6-8 with ice? I'm sure they would rather err on the side of caution.
I must admit, with a new smowmobile sitting on the grass, it's been a little disappointing not to get the snow that was sometimes forecasted.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Bonnie — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 20:42:22 GMT

I'd like to see them play God and predict the exact amount...come on people PULEASE!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

RiverRat — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 20:47:35 GMT

I live on the other side of the river from Minetto. With about 3 feet of snow on the roof, I'm praying that the precipitation continues to be snow instead of rain until I can get the roof shoveled. Is it possible that I'm just far enough north to keep out of the slop? It's a lot easier to shovel off the lake effect snow than the mess that sleet & freezing rain are going to make!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

NorthBayLight — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 20:55:37 GMT

Ditto, Newsnomobiler. We've only been out twice on the trails.....the second time was iffy. If the temps stay low, perhaps this week will be OK. After Friday, a million people are on the trails and it gets to be messy. I think we're going to test them out tonight....gotta get SOME riding in!! LOL.
RiverRat: I remember having to do that w/ our roof and neighbors last year after the 'Winter in a Week' snow. NOTTTT fun, nor safe.
I'll be anxious to see how much we do actually get. Even if the forecasters over estimate, I'd MUCH rather be prepared than not!
DAVE: Will the snow we get tonight be a wet, heavy snow (saturated) snow or can we expect 'fluff'? I'm assuming heavy given the moisture the storm is pulling in from the gulf...but wanted to check. THANKS!

LET IT SNOW!!!!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

GSB Snowman — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 20:58:43 GMT

Jim and the Dave's, I'm curious as to which of the 5 GSB cities you think will make out best with this storm? I was checking out NOAA and see that they have Albany down for 5 - 10 but that was a really early morning update and might have changed by now. With Rochester only 4.7 inches away from Syracuse I was wondering who you all think will win this round. Any thoughts?

BTW, light snow if you can even call it that (5 flakes an hour) has just started to come down in the Fremont area which you probably know already seeing how the channel 9 station is only about a mile away from me. Thanks for any feedback you can give ; )

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

jon ch — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 21:08:34 GMT

hello, your favorite astrological meteoroligist here, as i predicted yesterday , no snow , in onodaga county; and now tuesday 4;05 PM , STILL NO SNOW , temps as i predicted will rise , by midnite 33 degrees, the intensity is low right now , we will see very little snow if any by midnite. at the most 1-2 inches in your northern areas , for onodaga county. trace every where else ,then rain and sleet,up north mostly , rain and 38 -40 tomorrow.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

dlongley — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 21:23:48 GMT

Update at 4:30 - Dave Longley - Very light snow has started, and will continue through the evening. To answer a couple of questions. The forecast remains 3-6" before the changeover. Jim and Dave E. are updating things and that's what I see them doing. One thing I noticed is the flake size is small so that 3-6" still looks good. Looks like sleet by midnight which will keep the snow totals down. Remember back 24 hours ago in my post that's what we said would be the make or break item in the snow forecast.

For SnowLuvr - On the front page (at least for another hour) the 2-4" is for tonight. We had T-2" for the today period, so the math still puts us in the 3-6" zone.

Coffeeguy - we will turn marginally cold for some lake effect Wednesday night and early Thursday, but I don't see anything organized. Interestingly, any moisture we can pull off the lake may become trapped underneath and inversion (where temperatures start rising with height) undermining our chances for sun Thursday and keeping a few flurries in the air.

RiverRat - Good point you bring up. There's nothing I hate more than shoveling the roof off. This stuff coming in will have much more water content than your lake effect snow that fell yesterday.

Now begins the most stressful time of a meteorologist, the waiting game. We'll see how the numbers pan out. The radar sure looks impressive to our south and west.

-Dave

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Shawn — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 21:37:35 GMT

Am I the only one that thinks Jon ch is insane. I can't wait to check the blog around midnight and see what he has to say once we have 3-6 on the ground.

Great job guys!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

mward915 — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:18:40 GMT

Dear Dave,
How do you see travel around the Auburn area tomorrow morning. I see that freezing rain and sleet are in the forecast after midnight will this effect morning travel as much as it did in our last ice storm that occurred a few weeks ago.
Thanks again,
Mike

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

coffeeguy — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:26:52 GMT

8:21pm looking at the Northeast Radar loop it looks like this mass is curling up to the east as it comes up and the plume of moisture that is the just below the all snow portion is aiming our direction. Is that wide swath of non moisture in the middle of the state the low that is going to push the warmth? Just asking for my own educational curosity?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Mike — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 02:23:30 GMT

Weather.com is saying it's going to be 15-20 from 2:00am - 7:00am : Why is there such a big difference with your prediction?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Jim Teske — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 02:26:57 GMT

9:00 PM update...We ended up fine tuning the snowfall forecast for the 5:00 PM show. We stuck with the 3-6" for the Syracuse area but hit up the bigger totals (6-10") north of Syracuse because of a later changeover plus the models were keying in on a big area of lift moving overhead right about now. This area of lift is supposed to increase as it moves north of Syracuse.

It looks like the 3-6" totals around Syracuse look good. There's probably another 2 to 3 hours of snow here before the change to sleet takes place. I don't see any sleet in the observations to the west but there is freezing rain already in Buffalo. The warm air aloft is moving in fast.

We're not too concerned about a major icing event because the precipitation looks like it will taper down overnight. There is a large dry slot that is now moving southern New York and it's headed north.

Have a good night. I'm off to get a head start on the driveway for the morning.

Jim

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

beckygool — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 02:49:50 GMT

Same old same old. A tiny bit of snow then rain. What a wierd winter. Not that I am an expert, last winter was my first but this winter sure has been diff from last. I guess we know the forcast for the rest of this winter, a little snow then rain. Then Spring.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Bonnie — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 02:56:21 GMT

Mike as I stated before, the Weather Channel, or Weather.com, will never have the same forecast. I faithfully watch them just because I like weather, and they are almost always about 10 degrees cooler. Even in the summer. Keep your eye on it and track it yourself... you will see.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

NorthBayLight — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 03:02:06 GMT

HAHA, Shawn -- I've been thinking that for a while now LOLOLOL.
Just came in from a 20 mile snowmobile ride...once you get past North Bay, the trails are beautiful. They were actually grooming while I was out. Not a ton of snow on the trails, but just enough to make them pleasurable.
Its nasty out, too. Very fine snow....made it very difficult to see in open fields when snowmobiling.
Cleaned off abotu 2" of snow on our railing just a bit ago, and looks to be close to another inch right now.
Hey JIM TESKE -- how much rain can we expect over night (north bay area) -- just a bit before it turns back into snow or can we expect a soaking melt-down....?? Would like to get back out and trail ride tomorrow night but not so sure thats gonna happen!!!

LET IT SNOWWWW!!!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Shawn — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 03:25:01 GMT

NorthBayLight--Glad you agree with me!

Here in Onondaga Hill, probably have 3-5 inches on the ground with sleet just starting to mix in (10:30pm) To quote someone from eailer today........

"jon ch said:
hello, your favorite astrological meteoroligist here, as i predicted yesterday , no snow , in onodaga county; and now tuesday 4;05 PM , STILL NO SNOW , temps as i predicted will rise , by midnite 33 degrees, the intensity is low right now , we will see very little snow if any by midnite. at the most 1-2 inches in your northern areas , for onodaga county. trace every where else ,then rain and sleet,up north mostly , rain and 38 -40 tomorrow. "

Right! You're just about as good as the other weather guy with the cat

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

OSU MET STUDENT — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 06:38:42 GMT

Hi everyone,
What a weird night, From light fine snow to a blinding heavy snow to a clippling Sleet storm all within 2 1/2 hrs. Before th sleet moved in I would have to think aboyt 3-5 inches had fallen before the changover to sleet which added to the totals. Probably got about 2" of sleet on top of the snow so all-in-all not a bad night. We're in the midst of a dryslot from hell but at the present time it looks like its starting to fill in down in S.PA and that is what will be affectying us in the AM. I really don't see it going above freezing tomorrow in fact its a good bet that we stay well below freezing before we go back over to snow!! Down in W.VA the temp is in the 50's!! while in S.PA the temps are still in the low 20's. Cleveland is experiencing snow right now and Buffalo should be transition ing back over to snow shortly. I don't think that really warm air ever gets here so I wouldn't bank on much rain overnight. My main concern would be FZRN if anything but thats just me of course. For the gentleman who thinks its going to be 38-40, try again and if it happens my hat goes off to you but I seriously doubt it...

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

OSU MET STUDENT — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 11:44:09 GMT

Good morning!!
Well here it is 6:30AM and Its snowing to beat the band all over Oswego Cty and it doesn't look like its going to end any time soon. As I stated last night, I didn't think we had a chance to go above freezing and we didn't. Whoever gets under this band this morning has a pretty good chnace of picking up an additional 2-4". This definitely was a difficult storm to predict like so many have been this year due to the intensity of the LA NINA. The precip should wind down from west to east later this morning thru early afternoon. Theres a lot more weather coming up for Friday thru the weekend into next week with a few shots of Arctic air followed by some lake effect. In fact we might see some Lake Effect later on this evening on a NW flow.
Have a good day and drive safe!!!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

mward915 — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 11:50:20 GMT

Good Morning,
This morning in Auburn the roads are clear and wet. We recieved around three to as much as 5 inches in some spots around the Auburn area. Snow turned to freezing rain and sleet sooner than expected last night so accumulations varied on the location. Good job to the News Channel 9 Storm Team for forecasting this storm basically correct. Drive safe this morning!
Thanks,

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

NorthBayLight — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 13:12:24 GMT

Priceless, Shawn, Priceless!! Loved the cat comment.
Great job w/ the forecasting yesterday....pretty much dead on.
We ended last night with about 5 inches of snow and a nice crunchy layer of ice this morning.
One storm gone....and I've heard some rumblings of a storm on Sunday? Are we talking nor'easter or lake effect?? Or ice????

LET IT SNOW!!!!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

markel — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 14:41:21 GMT

NBL -
Probably all rain for that one - looks like its riding west of the mountains. Might as well bring on spring - every storm we've gotten has turned to rain

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

lordofthesith — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 15:21:51 GMT

well, this was another storm that fizzled

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

NorthBayLight — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 16:24:22 GMT

Markel: I know, we're getting pretty frustrated with winter. EIther bring on winter or give me spring! I hate this ice and rain stuff. If I can't snowmobile....melt it so I can get back in the garden!!!!

LET IT SNOW!!!!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

ssjdcc — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 16:48:50 GMT

i hope the snow is over. we here in oswego do not need anymore snow. we got hammered with in the last 4 days...... on top of the 2 1/2 feet we already had we got another 8 i bet over night last night and this am day of 2/13/08. no more snow DAVE!!!!!!! good day all :) keeping smileing

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

newsnomobiler — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 17:51:48 GMT

Please send all unwanted snow to Tully for the trails. I can't get beat up on the Hill again!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Jim Teske — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 18:19:00 GMT

1:00 PM update...We are right on the tail end of the storm here in Syracuse. Since everything is progressing NE and not so much due east I would think we probably stay in the steady snow through about 4 or 5 PM before it finally shifts east for good. That would make us candidates for another inch or two of snow. Over parts of Chenango, Otsego and eastern Madison County, however, I would not be surprised if you folks see a quick 3 or 4 inches through this evening. In a line from Redfield-Fulton-Seneca Falls and points west just some flurries.

Post mortem from last night...looks like we ended up closer to the lower end of the accumulation forecast. Everyone seemed to be grouped in a 2-5" range. I did see the 8" total from near Oswego (thanks ssjdcc!) and we did get a 10" total from Redfield. We figured that the changeover to sleet last night would be faster than the models were forecasting and that thinking was good but it probably came an hour or so sooner than even we thought.

Jim

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

jon ch — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 10:26:34 GMT

congradulations , i was 1 inch lower than the fall in eastern and southern onon. ; jim was a little over ; it aint easy to predict with lake effect and changing wind currents , but im close

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

sandy — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 13:19:17 GMT

Good Job ,at least you could get the time frame closer. storm was supposed to end wed morning not afternoon. I run a snow removal crew and even the slighest amount has to be salted. bare sidewalks 24/7. Any how it seems like this whole winter i have had personal sitting around for hours waiting for your forecasted precipation or here for 18 hours straight because the prediction was no where close.How about this morning [THUR] the light flurries are building up to the point where it is almost plowable. You are really killing me on your forecasts this year.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Tom2 — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:18:55 GMT

Good morning- Do you see a warming trend over the next two weeks?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Kathy — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:21:42 GMT

Wow. Don't some of you critics realize that Mother Nature has more control than the weather guys? They're just doing their job and they work hard to get it as accurate as possible for us! I wish we could all be perfectly accurate in our chosen fields, but we're not. Give them a break. Anyway, up in the F/P hills, we had about 4-5 inches of snow and then the crunchy, icy mess Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Then another 2 inches of fluffy stuff this morning. At least we can get the cross-country skis out again!

Jim/Dave - I'm wondering about Sunday, too. I'm driving to Elmira during the day and wondered if we would have nasty weather on the way back Sunday night.
Thanks for keeping us informed!! Happy Valentine's Day, too!! :)

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Kevin — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 18:17:25 GMT

People, calm down and get a life. Nobody is perfect and the forecasters are doing a good job.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

sandy — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 21:37:24 GMT

Kevin I have a life and if you had to schedule people to keep all the parking lot and sidewalks clean so people like you can walk into work in there dress shoes and high heels without the possibality of slipping and sueing someone you would have issues also so like we say just stay in the truck or in your case just stay in your house and dont complain that if you get into a little fender bender or slip on a untreated sidewalk. not even to get into the $ part of it.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

sandy — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 22:01:57 GMT

Jim, what are the totals and what time do you think the snow will start on friday. should i have my 7 to 3:30 staff stay over or is it going to be a light snow event?

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Shawn — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 03:30:40 GMT

Haha, Sandy, here you go ripping the storm team, and now you are asking them what to do.....

Maybe you should start watching the other guy with the cat

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Kevin — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 14:18:33 GMT

Sandy,

Why are you looking for someone to blame? You are ignorant. You don't even know me. I defend people like you when they are sued. So learn to spell, do your job and don't expect other people to do it for you!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

sandy — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 19:02:45 GMT

Hey Kevin just wake up? Better hurry up and get to your job at McDonalds.Very doubtful you could defend anyone. Send me your card I might need you someday. If not see you at the golden arches.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

newsnomobiler — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 20:34:30 GMT

Take it somewhere else you guys. I keep checking here to see if I can get some snow to ride in. Don't need to read an episode of Jerry Springer.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Kevin — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 20:40:42 GMT

Sandy,

I'm sure I'll see you at the Golden Arches as you shove burger after burger in your mouth.

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Sandy — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 20:41:39 GMT

I love cheeseburgers!

re: Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday/Tuesday Night

ssjdcc...oswego ny — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 22:21:06 GMT

Hi "DAVE L" i live 5 min from lake ontario. it says 10-24inches for us...... is this what your seeing???? are we going to get any snow? if so how much? thank you