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Weather Discussion

Moderate Risk for Severe Storms Today

Just rolled into the office and the new SPC outlook does have us in a moderate risk today. As I mentioned last night, this is setting up to be a potentially damaging wind event for us. The storms we just had go through will do nothing to ruin our severe potential today. If you click on the above image, you'll be sent to the Day 1 convective outlook. This looks to be mid to late afternoon arrival, but I'm just starting to look at the data. More to come through the morning.

Dave

Published Tuesday, June 10, 2008 3:24 AM by dlongley

Comments

 

Tom said:

Wow, I'm surprised that we are at the highest risk for severe t-storms in the country.
June 10, 2008 4:15 AM
 

Zach said:

We are also under the 5% chance of a tornado, the highest they usually mark on the outlook, even in the plains during severe weather outbreaks.
June 10, 2008 5:26 AM
 

Tom said:

I also noticed the 45% chance of damaging winds.
June 10, 2008 5:43 AM
 

Brian said:

I've been watching this for a couple of days now. NWS Buffalo was indicating extreme
CAPE 4000 or greater in yesterdays Forecast discussion,then according to their models.
That was for the eastern lake ontario region. not sure how it will pan out over the rest of
central and eastern NY. Could be an interesting day. I think bringing my camera
out with me today will be a good idea.
June 10, 2008 7:41 AM
 

rescue141x said:

Brian,

That's what I was thinking too.. get my camera ready. Just bought a new Canon Digital Rebel XTI and I have been wanting to photograph storms and damage for a while. I may get my chance today!
June 10, 2008 7:43 AM
 

ChrisM said:

Zach, you are misinformed.  During severe weather outbreaks in the Plains, the SPC has gone as high as 30% hatched for tornadoes.  

It will be interesting to see if the convective overturning from this morning's convection associated with the pre-frontal trough will stabilize the atmosphere before the arrival of the front later this evening.
June 10, 2008 8:40 AM
 

Snowlover said:

Wow a tornado watch is out now things are gonna get interesting around here YIKES.
June 10, 2008 9:33 AM
 

ChrisM said:

As expected, the first round of showers and storms has cooled off the boundary layer and helped to stabilize things... at least for now.   How quickly the atmosphere recharges in the next few hours will determine if anything substantial will come through later in the day.   My best bet is areas over eastern NY seeing a higher potential for severe wx.
June 10, 2008 11:11 AM
 

Weather Watchers said:

Were here in Mexico NY where we had trees totally uprooted and flying in the air I swear it was a real life Wizard of Oz. It truly was scary I am not sure if we had an actual tornado as I did not see the funnel touch the round but  did see the rotating clouds.  We sit here with no power to be able to cool down with this unsettling heat and National Grid says they are not sending anyone out at this time! WHAT?? Does that make sence?
June 10, 2008 1:26 PM
 

Zach said:

Are we under a Tornado Watch, A severe T-Storm watch, or both? I do not know if the severe thunderstorm watch cancels the tornado watch we were under.
June 10, 2008 2:10 PM
 

Hear nor they're said:

Weather Watchers: It does not make sence.  That is just not write.  Their are some strange happenings goings on.  Here comes round too.  Its crazy hear to.  Your message is appresiated.

June 10, 2008 2:58 PM
 

Samantha said:

I was up at Green Point Marina on the northern border of oswego county/whre it hits jefferson county. We just bought a trailer in a park on N. Sandy Pond, went up for the day, bad idea! Huge storm hit after being there five minutes. Downed/uprooted trees all around me, no power, a few trailers flipped, and a few are completely torn to peices. National Grid showed up at around 2:30 due to all the downed lines and trees everywhere. Powers still out though. I'm pretty sure it was a tornado, everyone at the campsite says they heard it definitely was, I'd love to see a doppler image from the time it hit. The clouds were moving so fast, a giant willow just missed our trailer. I'm finally home in southern oswego county safe and sound.
June 10, 2008 4:28 PM
 

rescue141x said:

Hm seems like the storms from the cold front itself were pretty weak.

Pretty quiet day where I live. Go figure.
June 10, 2008 5:35 PM
 

Michael B said:

I stayed at a motel near Philadelphia and had planned to go there yesterday but it was so hot I decided against it. The high was 97 with a heat index of over 100!
I see though it was almost as hot in Syracuse-95 degrees.
June 10, 2008 6:37 PM
 

Bonnie said:

not much between Phoenix and Fulton except a lot of rain, some wind and some thunder off in the distance.  That goes for both storms today.
June 10, 2008 7:34 PM
 

rescue141x said:

Yeah Bonnie, boring day in Phoenix. Blah. Should have slept longer since I worked all night. Wasted my time.
June 10, 2008 7:40 PM
 

Bonnie said:

I worked all night too.  Woke up when I heard the thunder around 11:00 or so, and I also heard there was the tornado watch, so I got up just in case we needed to take cover!  But...it was a dud!
June 10, 2008 10:30 PM
 

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June 10, 2008 11:53 PM
 

HEY! said:

Hey guys -

Our favorite idiots at Accuweather are forecasting much cooler temps below normal for mid-month. Do you see anything in the cards that mid June should be cool (high 60's, low 70's) for an extended period of time? Or are we looking at close to normal temps?
June 11, 2008 6:30 AM
 

Sal said:

The NWS is also saying only about 70 or so by next Wed.  I;m guessing another trough over the northeast next week?
June 11, 2008 2:11 PM
 

Michael B said:

Your planning forecast is calling for below normal next Tuesday and Wednesday. Accuweather is forecasting below normal temperatures for Central New York for at least 10 days starting next Tuesday. I see there has been snow(!) in Washington state. Is Central New York headed for another prolonged spell of below normal temperatures?(probably due to another blocking high over Greenland)
June 11, 2008 8:16 PM
 

patb said:

After having the power knocked out yesterday we all have 1 question.  If a tornado was in the area, how would we know?  The fire whistle that went off continually throughout the day?  The nuclear sirens that we hear quarterly anyway?  Does Oswego County (or any NY county for that matter) have any kind of warning device in the event of such a thing happening again?
June 11, 2008 9:21 PM
 

Paul said:

Some of you guys are the biggest Donkeys on here.  If a tornado was to occur do we have any sirens? What kind of dumbass question is that.  Listen to your radio or tv.  Lets not be braindead here Patb.  And for all the Accu bashers.  Accuweather uses the GFS for there 15 day forecast.  The same GFS that Channel 9 uses.  So stop bashing Accu.  Start bashing the GFS model.  So we get a few cool days next week.  Big deal.  I think ther bloggers on here need to stop typing less and maybe they should start learning now to read the short and long term models.  You guys act like your so smart so take the time and learn it.  There are four times the model updates, 6z, 12z, 18z and 20z.  Are you ears open Michael B or are you going to kedep blogging your dumbass questions on here week after week.    
June 12, 2008 5:59 AM
 

PaulaSaurus said:

Hey! I'm Paul and I like to yell at invisible enemies that are apparentley all around me! I love Accuweather, especially those ass clowns Jesse and Bastardi! I know more about nothing than everyone else on here combined! I also like to stomp kittens to death in my spare time!
June 12, 2008 6:24 AM
 

WHY said:

WHAT'S WRONG WITH STOMPPING KITTENS?
June 12, 2008 7:47 AM
 

scndlisous2s3c said:

Paul and everyone else questioning a tornado. I was in Green Point Marina on Sandy Pond where the storm hit the hardest. We just bought a fixer upper singlewide as a camp, (with very flimsy walls I might add.) I love storms of all kinds. This storm was the scariest I've ever seen. Myself and others were panicking, trying to not get hit by flying objects and hoping our place wouldn't be ripped to peices like many of the other places. Look at the pictures in your corner photos under "Photos submitted by you" then click on the 6/10 storm. Mine are all the Green Point Marina ones, but theres also a pic of a  tornado that was taken south of me, looking north at the marina. Tell me thats not a tornado in the picture, and you're crazy! Plus, being in a tiny marina with limited cable, and no power, how are we supposed to listen to our radios and tvs? Run out to your car thats being smashed with roofs and debris? I dont think so.
June 12, 2008 8:46 AM
 

patb said:

Well Paul, kinda hard to watch the tv when the power is out.  Kinda hard to listen to the radio when it only picks up a couple of channels all blissfully unaware of whats going on...I did risk life and limb to go out to the car which has a weatherband station to hear whats going on.  Glad you live in such a sheltered world there Paul but thats ok, they all know you there.  Scndlisous, I agree with you, the sound I heard before the storm hit sounded eerily like a tornado to me.
June 12, 2008 9:08 AM
 

Bonnie said:

My only question is, that pic of the tornado shows a pretty large one.  With one that size, why is the National Weather Service still only saying it was straight line winds?
June 12, 2008 10:40 AM
 

scndlisous2s3c said:

I'm still questioning the picture, it sure looks like a tornado, but from where I saw the clouds it was just fast moving clouds, like fists coming out of the sky, I didn't see any spinning, but I didn't really have time to stop and stare. The pic could just be clouds in a strange formation that look like a tornado but I don't know. I remember it being extremely loud, like a train going by on tracks, and our walls were breathing. Many trailers were heavily damaged, while some werent touched. A tree was uprooted and a few feet away some potted plants were still standing in the position they were in before the storm. Doesn't that seem like a tornado, it chose its path, somet hings were destroyed, and other small things weren't touched.
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