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Weather Discussion

Strong Storms Possible Tuesday

Above is the Day 2 convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center.  You see here in CNY we're in the slight risk area for Tuesday.  If you click on the image, you'll get the actual outlook.  It'll be updated again this afternoon. 

Obviously we're got the heat in place.  Southwest winds will push temperatures once again near 90 Tuesday, and we'll also likely see a spike in dewpoints tomorrow.  That'll provide us with more than enough ingredients for thunderstorms.  We'll also have a pre-frontal trough coming through during the peak of daytime heating, and also some help from the jet stream winds aloft.  The winds are forecast to be quite brisk Tuesday afternoon, so any storms that get going will be able to tap into that energy and could produce damaging wind gusts in excess of 58 mph.  The time for these storms would be after 12 PM, so get out early in the day if you need to get outdoor work done.

A cold front is forecast to arrive in Central New York around sunset, and that may have another batch of showers and thunderstorms with it.  Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will move in for Wednesday.  Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to near 80, with humidity levels much, much lower.  A disturbance in the jet stream may kick off a few fair weather clouds Wednesday afternoon, and there may even be a shower over the Adirondacks.  Temperatures will begin warming through the rest of the week, with the humidity increasing during the day Friday.

Published Monday, June 09, 2008 9:33 AM by dlongley

Comments

 

tweety98 said:

Just wondering...with all these factors coming together so precisely, why would NOAA only give us a "slight risk" of thunderstorms forecast? It sounds pretty sure to me that we won't be able to miss them.
June 9, 2008 11:05 AM
 

Todd said:

tweety: if you take a closer look at the spc map you will see that most of central new york is in a 30% chance of severe weather.
dave: it is entirely possible that spc could upgrade or fine tune their prediction for moderate risk, right? do you think that a moderate risk is more appropriate given the recipe for severe weather?
June 9, 2008 11:54 AM
 

ChrisM said:

Moderate risk is pretty rare in upstate NY.  It is possible they could upgrade parts of our region in Tuesday's outlook, but they would need higher confidence that can only be ascertained by forecast soundings and satellite observations on the day of the event.  It is the right call to stay slight risk given there is still some uncertainty re: projected dewpoints which in turn have an impact on available CAPE.
June 9, 2008 12:14 PM
 

Kittens said:

Meow.
June 9, 2008 1:49 PM
 

Luna said:

I really hope we get some storms along a cold front that will take away at least a smidge of the heat and the humidity. I just drove through Norwich, and it was 102°F at the main bank! This is unbelievable, I wouldnt have believed it if I hadnt seen the sign for myself!
June 9, 2008 2:30 PM
 

ginger said:

I don't want severe weather, but I hope the front stalls right over our house for about 8 hours, things are getting mighty dry, crops, the well, lawn, etc.
June 9, 2008 4:28 PM
 

ginger said:

I don't want severe weather, but I hope the front stalls right over our house for about 8 hours, things are getting mighty dry, crops, the well, lawn, etc.
June 9, 2008 4:48 PM
 

lOREN thompson said:

There is some mention of tornados on noaa whats yout take on this for Tuesday afternoon? Are the storms somewhat fast movers or stalling when they do crop up? Thanks
June 9, 2008 4:58 PM
 

dlongley said:

First off, it's VERY rare for SPC to issue anything more than a slight chance for Day 2 and beyond.  That's enough prompting to get the wheels in motion for emergency officials.  It's got to be a biggie for anything more this far out.

It's possible that we could see an upgrade to moderate risk come the morning outlook.  We will certainly see enough heating through the morning, with temps approaching 90 by Noon.  Dewpoints will be on the rise, probably near 70, so there will be lots of energy.  We also know the wind fields aloft will be strengthening as we go through the afternoon, so the storms will have lots of energy to work on.  The wind flow looks pretty unidirectional (coming from the same direction in all levels of the atmosphere) which would tend to favor straight line winds.  We just don't see the turning of the winds indicative of a tornadic environment.  Although, if we can get enough instability, an isolated tornado is not out of the realm of possibility, as mentioned in the SPC discussion.

As for rain, it should be heavy at times when the storms go through, but because of the fast winds aloft, whatever forms should be moving along nicely.  Probably not the type of rain that many of you are looking for.

More in the morning.

Dave
June 9, 2008 7:33 PM
 

Gene G. said:

All the ingredients are there for a possible severe storm. My check of the radar shows storms into Western NY and we may get one before morning. Just hope
the rest hold off until after 4pm.    Oh yes,   we do need the rain !
June 9, 2008 9:58 PM
 

Bonnie said:

Yeah it appears there's some storms on the radar, which weren't predicted overnight.  Looks like the humidity and instability is too much for the atmosphere.  
June 10, 2008 1:04 AM
 

Deborah said:

Riding the fine line between wanting rain for my vegetable garden but not a pummeling attack that destroys my new seedlings, I watch your online reports carefully.  If we do get anything harsh I hope it will at least knock down the black walnut tree that layers my garden with its seed pods—that is, knock it down away from the power lines.  I spend several hours a day raking the darn things and then still having to daintily picking up the stray critters.  

I know the majority of our region wants rainless weather so they can use all their outside toys, but we vegetable gardeners want rain predictions that don't give us false hope.  Hearing "rain" and having none is a peeve of mine since I have to plan my watering so carefully.

I'm glad I finally got to vent my feelings about the rain thing.

I have a question too.  I know you have defined dewpoint  many times.  But I would appreciate an encore.

Thank you.
June 10, 2008 12:05 PM
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