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Post Memorial Day Frost Threat

What a change one day can make.  Yesterday it was in the 80s (with humidity to boot!) this afternoon we are holding in the low 50s. This cooler air is part of a chilly air mass building south out of Canada.  With clear skies and diminishing winds we should set up for ideal radiational cooling.  One thing to keep an eye on this evening is the dewpoint.  We are near 40 degrees as of 6 PM and there are lower dewpoint to our north, even 20s just north of Lake Ontario.  What the dewpoint ends up at later this evening should give us a clearer picture of how cold we might get. Under ideal conditions at night we typically drop close to the dew point.

The National Weather Service out of Binghamton just issued a frost advisory for much of central New York. It covers the coldest part of the night from 4 AM-8 AM. Right now we are thinking 37 or 38 in Syracuse and maybe a little cooler in the in the immediate suburbs. We think best chance for frost in Onondaga County would come across the southern part of the county where there are some deeper valleys that allow the cold air to drain to the bottom.  Elsewhere across central New York if you live away from a larger village or body of water you are at risk for some frost late tonight.

If you want to protect your plants tonight and you can move them you should bring them closer to your house or into the garage if you can.  Anything that is already in the ground make sure you cover. One other thing: I'm not a gardening expert but I've been told that for some plants the threshold for damage is higher than 32 degrees. For those more sensitive plants (I believe peppers and tomatoes are two examples) even in the immediate Syracuse area covering them tonight is probably a good idea.

Tomorrow night we are thinking the frost threat is a little less as the wind may be up just a bit more.

I'll try to update you on some temperatures later in the evening.

Jim

 

 

Published Tuesday, May 27, 2008 7:36 PM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

KBC said:

WNYS weather sucks
May 27, 2008 7:15 PM
 

MC said:

So you guys ready to change your summer forecast since it looks like this cool and unsettled air is ready to stay right into June? 50's in late May isn't looking too good for summer right now
May 27, 2008 8:26 PM
 

meowmix said:

yes - seriously weather guys - looks like lots of atmospheric blocking in greenland right through July meaning temperatures right through then will look just like May....

time to change the summer forecast to cooler and rainier than normal.
May 27, 2008 9:06 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

10:15 PM update...

49 here in Syracuse as of 10 PM and the dewpoint is now at 38 so we will probably stick with the forecasted low for the city.

44 in Tully, Marcellus and Fenner (Madison County)

No change in the summer forecast. In fact, I don't think we've changed a seasonal forecast once we issue it. That's the way it goes. We give ourselves one shot at it and that's that.

I do see a couple of things that do encourage me a bit after the first of June.  One, the PNA (the Pacific-North American Pattern) is forecast to go negative which would imply throughing and cooler weather out west.  Second, the models that far out have been showing signs of building a ridge and warmer weather in the East.  That's about a week and a half out. I am one to take model forecasts that far out with a grain of salt but like I said those are encouraging signs.  We'll see what things look like in another week.

Jim
May 27, 2008 9:29 PM
 

Gardener said:

I think I may have lost my tomato crop last night even though I covered them.

I also think car insurance and dfghjkjhgfd need a good ass kicking because they are A-holes.
May 28, 2008 8:02 AM
 

Sal said:

I think we better keep a close eye on our tomato plants again tonight.  It's only 56 degrees right now in Lyons (12:30 p.m.).  A 20 degree drop tonight and we're in trouble again.   Sure doesn't feel like the last week of May.
I'm still holding out hope that the summer outlook DOES come through for us and we turn things around the next 3 months.
May 28, 2008 11:39 AM
 

Sal said:

I just clicked over to the ACCU WEATHER site and one of their meteorologists Henry Margusity has issued his summer forecast  and he's now saying the northeast will continue to see below normal temps right through the summer.  he claims all the heat will remain out west.  That said, maybe tonight won't be the LAST night we need to worry about our tomato plants!
May 28, 2008 11:44 AM
 

Jim Teske said:

Looks like another night to keep an eye out for mid 30s and frost.  One thing working in our favor for temperatures warmer than last night is the fact we will be warmer today than we were yesterday afternoon. Late in the day Tuesday we were in the mid 50s while this afternoon we will get close to 60.  This means we have farther to drop and given we are close to our shortest night of the year we only have about 8 hours to accomplish our overnight low.

That being said we do have to watch the dewpoint closely. As of 1 PM our dew point is 30 degrees.  The thing to keep in mind is that our dewpoint on cool/dry days like this will likely be at it's lowest point early in the afternoon. As we get closer to sunset the dewpoint should come back up a bit.

Right now we are going for 39 here in Syracuse but a lot will hinge on how the dewpoint behaves later in the day. Currently Onondaga County is NOT in a frost advisory for tonight but many of the same counties that were under an advisory last night are. I'll try to keep you posted later today or this evening.
May 28, 2008 12:14 PM
 

Gardener said:

Question: What are you tomato growers out there using to cover your plants??
May 28, 2008 1:10 PM
 

gardenertoo said:

Hey gardener, I use a light-weight fabric called remay or row cover.  I bought a big roll online.  As a matter a fact, I grow my tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, and melons under it (24/7) for most of June.  I did not have to cover plants last night because they were already (and still are) covered.
May 28, 2008 1:23 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

8:30 PM update....the sun and setting and the temperature is starting to drop.  When Dave Eichorn and I started digging into the details of the forecast for tonight we looked to our north into Canada.  There is a cold front dropping south through Ontario province.  Although the front doesn't get to CNY it will still have an impact on our weather. Winds are steady out of the west or southwest ahead of the front and that leads us to believe later tonight (after midnight) the wind might pick up a bit from Syracuse north.  The wind might not be much (under 10 mph) but it could be enough to cancel out the dryness of the air (dewpoint still 31 degrees at 8 PM).

Jim
May 28, 2008 7:33 PM
 

Sal said:

Down to 38 at my house in Lyons this morning.  Not as cold as yesterday morn but still a touch of frost.  Let's hope this is it for frost worries until Oct.!
May 29, 2008 6:07 AM
 

HEY! said:

Hey Dave/Jim -

Do you guys see any coorelation with this May and May of 2002? That May we ended up -3.1 degrees below normal in temperature.....

Then June 02 - we were 2.1 degrees above normal with 2 days of 90+, July 02 we were 2.8 above normal with 10 90+ days, and August we were 3.8 degrees above normal with 11 days of 90+ (and 1 reading of 101)....

Maybe something to look at since we have a cool May and you are predicting a hot summer with lots of 90+ degree days? By the way - April 02 was also 3.0 degrees above normal...
May 29, 2008 8:53 AM
 

Jim Teske said:

Hey!

2002 didn't show up in the years we looked at for our summer forecast mainly because it was just outside the top ten warmest Aprils. It's probably up there in the top 15 or 20. There certainly some similarities there in 2002 compared to this spring.

Jim
May 29, 2008 9:41 AM
 

Drew said:

I am not 100% sure of this becuase I didn't see it on the NWS website anywhere, but I saw at work at Cornell today on a weather calendar for Ithaca that the old record low for this morning was 42 set back in 1902. Well....that 106 year old record got shattered this morning when the temperature dropped to 33!

Rather impressive, isn't it?
May 29, 2008 9:15 PM
 

Bonnie said:

I heard Dave L. say on the noon forecast that he is heading to the Chief's game tonight for Little League night.  Phoenix Pop Warner is running a concession stand somewhere on the 3rd base side.  Be sure to stop over there for a  worthy cause to help support a local organization and get your snacks and drinks!  I was going to work it, but I have my daughter's dance dress rehearsal tonight.
May 30, 2008 12:15 PM
 

skipper10807 said:

HI Guys,

I have a Brownie Troop Camping @ Highland Forest...what are we in for on Saturday afternoon??? Are we talking popcorn T-storms or a line of storms???
I am hoping everthing will just fizzle out...lol
May 30, 2008 1:14 PM
 

Drew said:

Checked that calendar again today....the record was actually 43, not 42 like I had said....
May 30, 2008 2:07 PM
 

Bonnie said:

Hard to believe looking at this week's forecast...60 yesterday and 90 5 days later!  Gotta love CNY weather!!
June 2, 2008 9:27 AM
 

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