We hope you had a chance to enjoy the absolutely spectacular Sunday across central New York.  It's nice when the the best day of the month so far coincides with part of the Memorial Day weekend. Unfortunately you may have to plan around some thunderstorms for Memorial Day.  Here is what we are up against.

Warmth and moisture has been steadily moving north and east through the middle of the country today. I'm looking at a surface map Sunday evening and I'm keying in on Missouri and Illinois where dewpoints (a measure of moisture) are climbing into the 60s and even 70s.  that's muggy.  Meanwhile, a cold front is currently dropping south through southern Canada  By late Monday the front will be on the other side of Lake Ontario over southern Ontario, Canada. Winds will turn southwest ahead of this front and we should become more humid and Monday's temperatures still have a shot at low 80s. 

Even with the warmth and humidity we do have to overcome some negative factors for thunderstorms to form Monday afternoon.  In the mid levels of the atmosphere through mid afternoon there will be some sinking air which would keep us 'capped' This does break down later in the afternoon.  In addition,  the cold front itself is still pretty far north through the day to help out.

Given the fact it is a holiday, however, we have to be wary of at least a few thunderstorms forming from mid afternoon on (the morning parades should be fine). Finally, since the winds aloft will be fairly strong (40 kts at 5,000 feet and nearly 60 kts at 10,000 feet) any storms that do form could be severe.  If you checked out the Storm Prediction Center web site today you will see we are in the slight risk of severe weather Monday afternoon.  If you do have outdoor plans Monday afternoon it would be a good idea to check us out on the web before you head out.  In particular, check out the latest on the radar and Mark Chapin's Noon forecast.

Have a great Memorial Day.

Jim