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Wow, This is Nice!

Posted 10:30 AM, Tuesday, 5/6/2008-Dave Longley- Another beautiful, sunny morning across the area.  Light winds are making it feel doubly nice.  Looks like I'll be able to finish up the yard work this afternoon. Jim Teske and I have been watching an area of clouds drop in toward us from the NW.  The clouds are drying up as they head our way, but we may see an increase in some clouds around here by mid afternoon.  There are showers showing up on the radar back across Michigan, but we've been hard-pressed to see anything hitting the ground.  We call that virga in meteorology...precipitation that dries up before hitting the ground. 

Do you know that weather balloons are still sent up into the sky twice a day, across the country?  They measure winds, and moisture and temperature high up into the sky, creating a sounding of the atmosphere.  The balloon sounding from Buffalo this morning shows some pretty dry air in the lowest 6,000 feet or so of the atmosphere, and I'm not surprised that moisture is drying up.  That'll be something to watch for this afternoon, but I think worst case scenario is we end up with a few sprinkles later this afternoon/evening and that's it.  Looks good for all the sports teams in CNY this evening, with temperatures falling to around 60 by 8 PM.

The rest of tonight will be dry, and then as winds turn into the south Wednesday, temperatures will warm into the 70s!  A cold front back to our west will be the main trigger for precipitation Wednesday night.  However, we're getting some indication from our computer models, that a few showers may try to form tomorrow afternoon, after 2 PM.  The chances for rain don't look to be all that great tomorrow; just wanted to give you a heads up.

Boy, some messy weather coming in across the southwestern US, will spread moisture our way Thursday and Friday.  I came in this morning and was pleasantly surprised that some drier air looks like it'll make a run at us later Thursday.  What looked like a rainy day, looks like we could see some sun later Thursday afternoon.  Woo-hoo!  The question will be if that dry air can keep another surge of moisture to our south Friday.  You'll see some sun in there for Thursday, and I kept the sun in for Friday, with just the chance of a few showers.

Now the weekend.  Most of our longer range guidance is showing a sunny Saturday, and increasing clouds with rain arriving Sunday.  I say most, because the ECMWF is showing rain Saturday and dry Sunday.  Where are the weather dice?  We're going to stick with the consensus now and keep the dry Saturday, rain arriving Sunday scenario.  That's what we've had since the weekend, and will stick there through this morning.

There you have it.  Questions, comments?

-Dave

Published Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:48 AM by dlongley

Comments

 

Zach said:

I see 55 is the expected high for next Monday. Long way off, but do you think we will remain in the 50's after that?
May 6, 2008 2:23 PM
 

Sal said:

Looks like many weather sources are saying cooler weather for much of next week in the northeastern part of the country.  It always seems to get wet and cold around Mother's day every year, though I think last year was an exception to that.
May 6, 2008 2:54 PM
 

Michael B said:

One of the other stations is forecasting a high(That's a joke!)temperature next Monday of 49 degrees-that's 18 degrees below normal! Why is it  going to be so cold,Dave? How long will the frigid-yes, frigid-weather last?
May 6, 2008 5:33 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

Michael B,

The reason for the switch to cooler weather is one of those blocking patterns we talk about from time to time. This block, or area of high pressure, will be located between Greenland and Labrador. This will force the jet stream winds aloft to our south later in the weekend and early next week.

There are still some questions as to how the rest of next week will unfold but the GFS model and at least some of it's ensemble members are pointing to a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere somewhere over the Great Lakes or Northeast through the middle of the month. As we get farther along in time we'll see if we start to get more agreement from the computer models. If this verifies that would certainly mean below normal temperatures for an extended period.

Meanwhile, in the shorter term, there looks like there may be some thunder late Wednesday afternoon over the Finger Lakes.  The true warm front (the leading edge to upper 70 degree warmth) will be located there and any storms could get helped along by a lake breeze off of Lake Erie.  Also of note, we saw that late in the day the winds aloft begin to pick up.  That tells us that there may be some gusty winds (30 mph >) in any storms that do form. A better chance for storms elsewhere across central New York Wednesday night as a cold front swings through.

Also, we are sticking with the GFS for the start of the weekend and keeping things dry for Saturday around here.

That's all for now.  

Jim

May 6, 2008 5:59 PM
 

Michael B said:

Thanks for the info,Jim. I have one other question for you. Are these blocking patterns more prevalent in the Spring that the other seasons? I have noticed in the NOAA weather archives that most Springs over the years there has been at least one spell of prolonged below normal temperatures.
May 7, 2008 10:16 AM
 

Sal said:

I have to agree with Michael B.  It seems there's always a cold spell right around Mother's day every year.  If my memory is right, other than last year, I think most Mother's days and the week before or after seems to be wet and cold.
May 7, 2008 10:27 AM
 

dlongley said:

Michael & Sal,

You are correct that in recent memory (2005-2007) there has been some chilly weather during the middle of May.  I don't have any numbers to back up when blocking is most prevalent but it seems to show up most noticeably in mid to late winter.  February 2007 with all the lake effect snow is the most dramatic example. I think it has happened during the summer recently but off hand i can't recall the year.

Jim
May 7, 2008 11:40 AM
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