Dave, I really like your seven day forcast, but do you have a two week outlook or something ? I know part of the trouble with that is the accuracy is a little off that far out. If you do have one I'd like to see it, though.  Thanks

The high pressure area that brought the cool air into the Northeast is followed by a southerly flow of warmer air. For the moment, the warm air looks like it can make it only so far before it runs into resistance from the cool air in the Northeast now. This is because there is an upper air storm over eastern Canada blocking the way. Therefore, the warm air will be forced to rise over the dome of cool air. As any air rises, it cools and can accommodate less water vapor. As a result, clouds and rain can develop. We expect to see a band of rain from southern Michigan or northern Indiana into Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. This preliminary rain should then break off and head off the East Coast tomorrow night as a new rain zone develops a little farther north in the Great Lakes region. That rain could then move east to central or southern New England tomorrow night into Friday ... with some showers and a thunderstorm or two erupting in the same areas where the first band of rain became established.

What happens next depends in large part on the vortex in eastern Canada. The GFS and ECMWF models both show the easternmost portion of this trough swinging northward and the whole vortex drifting westward. This would happen in response to a blocking high pressure area over northeastern Canada. The result would be a southerly flow aloft that would force the cool air to retreat northward Friday into the weekend. Finally (of course we all hope and pray that this is "finally" only in the sense of this discussion and not in the context of the world in general), a storm forming in the Plains will move northeastward through the Great Lakes this weekend, bringing a cold front eastward on its south side. This front could cause severe thunderstorms from the western Gulf states to Illinois, Indiana and perhaps southwestern Michigan on Friday. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has already outlined this area in their Friday outlook. As the front proceeds eastward during the weekend, so too will the band of thunderstorms. Early indications are that the weather will become pretty nice early next week.

Down to 29 this morning in Lyons.  A nice frost, to say the least.  Hope everyone covered up what they needed to cover last night.  It was a killer...at least here in Lyons.

Hey Sal, relax.  We all got a frost this am.  Not just you in Lyons.  Dont you have anything better to do at 615am or is that the time Donkeys decide to wake up and type on bloggs.

Frank,
At least I woke up in a good mood!  Take a chill pill and go back to bed.  No room for attitudes like yours!

I'm sorry Sal.  I am a Yankees fan so I don't know how to act like a human being.

Mother's day on always seems to be the point when all the frosts are done with, and it looks like 60 degrees all the way up to then.  Hopefully I'm not saying this too soon, but I think we've made through the frosty weather !

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