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Teske's Tidbits (4/24/08) The One about April Warmth

The summer-like warmth continues over central New York.  A cold front came through last night and we are still forecasting temperatures about 10 degrees above normal today (Thursday). Some cold front. Our average temperature for April currently stands at 7.2 degrees above normal. We are right now tied for the 4th warmest April on record.  If you only include the past 7 days over average jumps to 16.5 degrees above normal! Earlier in the week we mentioned that we are only the cusp of something unusual for April.  If we can hit 70 degrees or better today it will be the eighth straight day that’s happened and that puts on par with just another couple of years:

 

1942                8 Days

 

1990                8 Days

 

1957                9 Days

 

If we can manage to hit 70 degrees today (it will be close) we think we have a real good chance of surpassing 1957.

 

There was one other April that caught my eye—April 2005. Much like this April, April 2005 featured a long stretch with dry weather; 11 straight days without rain.  There weren’t as many 70 degree days that year but April 2005 did end up 3 degrees above normal and that followed a colder than normal March.  Fast forward to this year: a colder than normal March is followed by what will certainly be a warmer than normal April.  I bring April 2005 into the conversation because that summer ended up the warmest on record in Syracuse.  When we make our summer forecast in a couple of weeks, past April weather may play a big role. We’ll be doing some more digging into this.  One thing I know for sure is that all the Aprils I mentioned above (2005, 1990, 1957 and 1942) had warmer than normal Junes. By the way, it looks like we are scheduled to have our official Summer Forecast ready for May 15th at 11 PM.

 

I don’t want to forget there is a bit of a double edge sword to all this sunny weather. Here in Syracuse we are now into our 12th day in a row with no measurable rain and even though things are nice and green there are signs of strain.  If you have tried to plant things you know the topsoil is getting bone dry. I’ve noticed on several hikes across central New York the underbrush (leaves etc.) are also bone dry.  Thankfully, winds are rather light today. Even better news is there is a better chance for some rain over the next 5 to 7 days.

Published Thursday, April 24, 2008 11:38 AM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

Eric said:

This cool-down that's coming next week... How long do you guys think it will last?
April 24, 2008 10:01 AM
 

Mr. Deez said:

Eric, this was in Daves post yesterday.  

The cooldown next week has been forecast for days by the Euro and Canadian and the GFS is now on board.  It's only a 1 or 2 day affair though, as the ridge tries to pump back up in the east later next week.  Some of the GFS runs I saw early this morning indicated we wouldn't get out of the 40s next Tuesday/Wednesday.  I didn't bite because of the tendency for the GFS to be too cold in terms of long range cooldowns.  The 12Z GFS was downright chilly, with 850s approaching -9C by Wednesday morning.  Certainly cool enough for some snowflakes to mix in.  The new 18Z GFS is warmer, with the coldest 850 temp around 0C or so.  Certainly enough to end our streak of 70s.  We'll see what the new runs have tomorrow.
April 24, 2008 2:21 PM
 

Paul said:

Hey Teske.  Why are you bothering with your summer prediction.  I understand giving us a Winter Prediction but a Spring & Summer?  First, your Spring prediction has been completly wrong.  So why are you guys bothering with a Summer Prediction.  Its not like you guys are looking at current data to suggest any findings.  All you guys do is rub your head till your hairless and look back at the last 50 years.  You guys tryed telling us that we were going to see a cold and wet spring because thats what the past 20 springs or so have shown with the type of winter we had and nobody predicted this great weather we have had Except Joe Bastardi from Accuweather.  He said back in February that the ridge over the south was going to break and head north.  He predicted this with some data that Im assuming you guys have access to.  He doesnt use past weather to predict the future weather and thats why he is so accurate.  I will post his findings on here with a link.  As for now, he is suggesting a very hot and dry summer and the weather we have been seeing over the past 2 weeks will return but with temps in the 80s after next week.  He is so accurate that even Wall Street listens in to what he has to say.  I am not bashing you guys but to post that Dave E will be making his summer prediction soon is really quite funny.  Its going to be a very genaric prediction based on previous data over the years.  My thinking is since this winter has been so crazy and now spring that the past data at this point is useless.  But as always I will listen to what Dave has to say!
April 24, 2008 2:43 PM
 

Sal said:

Updated forecasts this afternoon saying the cool temps will be with us Tues, Wed., and Thurs next week.  Do you guys agree with that?
As for what Paul just posted, I have to say that Joe Bastardi does seem to be quite accurate with long range forecasts.  I used to read his daily blog all the time til he went to the professional service and I had to start paying for it.  In fact, I miss reading it.  
Anyway, I hope the cool down is brief and lets hope it;s the last one til Oct or Nov.
April 24, 2008 3:18 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

We came up a bit short with the high temperature today so our streak of consecutive 70 degree days ends at 7.

Secondly, we did put the snowflake in for next Wednesday mainly because today the European model came in about as cold as the GFS from the past two days.

Finally, as always, we appreciate all the comments but I do have to correct one thing that was said above.  While our April portion of the Spring forecast is going to end up wrong, March was on target with below normal temperatures. And it wasn't just a few days or a week of cool weather that skewed things it was almost the entire last 3/4 of the month.  The signal for the cool March was the strongest we had of the 3 spring months (March, April, and May)

We started looking at past years weather to make our seasonal forecast because we did seem to have some success using that data to make winter forecasts (this past winter we forecasted near normal snow and we are at 109").  I still think looking at these past (or analog) years can be useful. Are they 100% right? No but I still think they offer clues as to similar patterns that might be setting up in the current year.  I'd be curious to hear what Joe B. looks at.  One of our analog years that might end up as part of our summer forecast this time around is 2005, which I stated above was the warmest summer on record here. That summer the ridge built north in early June and stuck around all summer long. In a sense that might mean our method might be different from Joe B. but the reasoning could be similar to get to the seasonal forecast.

Jim
April 24, 2008 6:48 PM
 

Bonnie said:

Yes March's forecast definitely hit the nail on the head.  I'm just glad the entire Spring did not turn out to be cool.  I hope we have a warmer than normal summer!  I'll sure get use out of the pool and camper this year!  
April 24, 2008 8:38 PM
 

Rocky24 said:

I live in Romulus and want to go fishing with my brother-in-law tomorrow on Seneca Lake.  What are your indications for a successful outing, weather wise if we go from 8:00 to 2:00?
April 25, 2008 7:57 AM
 

Luke said:

Hey Rocky.  AM looks nice but the afternoon looks to be sticky and humid with some thunder boomers as this cold front sweeps through later in the day.  Good Luck fishing.  Im curious how fishing season is this year with the temps being so warm.
April 25, 2008 4:30 PM
 

Chris said:

Here is Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Prediction for this year.  The link is below.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=7
April 25, 2008 4:39 PM
 

gorace24 said:

I am no weather person, but I think the way the weather is heading, we are going to have a hot, dry summer. We were missed numerous times by the winter storms that came out the middle of the country this year. I just have a huntch.

I remember 1990, It had it in the 90degree mark,I had just moved to a new house in the beginning of April.
Pat in West Monroe.
April 26, 2008 8:00 AM
 

Michael B said:

The planner shows AT LEAST 5 days in a row with below to much below normal temperatures. I thought the cold weather was supposed to be short lived. How long is this cold spell going to last according to the computer models?
April 26, 2008 2:44 PM
 

Sal said:

New computer guidance seems to indicate the cold snap will be of a shorter duration than what was earlier thought.  The NWS out of Buffalo says we may be back in the 60's come friday / sat. next week.  Just yesterday the thinking was the cold would last through those two days.
What's the channel 9 weather team think about this change?  Keep us posted.
April 26, 2008 4:02 PM
 

Michael B said:

Accuweather is now saying below normal temperatures for the next 2 weeks! Is there going to be another blocking pattern setting up over Greenland and keeping it cold here seemlingly forever?
April 26, 2008 4:15 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

Sorry for not responding over the weekend.  The weather was just too nice and there were too many outdoor projects to do....

There is a decent block going on right now but it is actually just south of Greenland.  That should still cool us down over the next couple of days. However, it looks like the core of the cold air will start to shift north of us starting Thursday and our temperatures should moderate.  Of note, both the European and Canadian models show the block (area of high pressure aloft) retrograding or shifting southwest into New England by the end of the weekend or early next week. That would keep us at or above normal in temperature but not necessarily dry.

Jim
April 28, 2008 9:36 AM
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