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Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon

Posted 10:30 AM Wednesday, by Dave Longley - Wow, what a stretch of weather we've been enjoying.  I had to come back from vacation just to enjoy some warm weather!  As of 10 this morning, we're already at 70 degrees, and still there area a few hours of sun to come.  Also, southwest winds will help to push temperatures well into the 70s today.  I'm also noticing an increase in dewpoints.  There's more moisture in the air today compared to yesterday.  This heat and moisture will provide the fuel for a few thunderstorms this afternoon.

This isn't a great setup for storms, but we've got the warm and increasingly moist air over us, and an approaching cold front.  All of this will come together this afternoon to produce some showers, and some thunder.  There isn't much wind aloft over us, so it looks like our chances for severe weather will be pretty slim.  Keep an eye on the radar this afternoon though.

By 7 or 8 this evening, the cold front will have pushed to our east, and skies will start to clear from the west.  We may actually end up with a pretty cool sunset this evening, especially over the Finger Lakes as the setting sun illuminates the undersides of the retreating clouds. 

More dry air will build in over us tonight, and will be centered over us tomorrow.  This will mean plenty of sun tomorrow.  Winds from the NW coupled with the dry air, could actually pose some more fire issues tomorrow, similar to what we've seen over the past week.  We're not expecting much rain this afternoon, and the dead vegetation will provide quite a bit of fuel for unattended fires tomorrow.  You can read more on areas under a "burn ban" here: http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=52cf6093-b66a-40f0-a601-37dc22a034aa

We'll be dry and warm into Friday, although late in the day, humidity will try to make a run at us and that could bring an isolated late-day thunderstorm.

-Dave

Published Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:43 AM by dlongley

Comments

 

weather » Blog Archive » Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon said:

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April 23, 2008 10:00 AM
 

Sal said:

Never thought I'd be saying this on April 23, but we DO need rain.  Go figure!
Dave, I see starting early next week, we may be going the other way in the temp department.  Is this a short term or long term weather pattern change?  I can remember some pretty horrible early Mays here in Central NY. For instance,  how many Mother's days were washouts or cold enough to wear a winter jacket over the past years?  More than I can remember.  So anyway, long term cool down, or short term?
April 23, 2008 10:05 AM
 

UpstateNY said:

How about the Mother's Day snowstorm, remember that?  Ekkk! Hopefully not repeated anytime soon! I saw one report of 40's for next Tuesday--hope that's way too low. Lovin' this weather!
April 23, 2008 12:28 PM
 

Sal said:

Oh boy..check out the NWS discussion.  Saying there could be flurries or snow showers at night starting Monday and lasting through Wed of next week.
What do think about that, guys?
April 23, 2008 2:18 PM
 

Paul said:

Hey Sal.  Grab a paper bag and hold it over your mouth and take deep long breaths or maybe you should put that Viagara away for a few days!  Channel 9 has the lowest temps around as always.  By this Friday, they will raise there temps into the low to mid 50's for highs.  It looks like we may be having a frost during those nights but thats common for this time of the year.  It looks like we will be going back into the same pattern we have sen over the Northeast after next week with more dry weather and bright skys.  Lets not forget that dominating ridge of high pressure over the south during the whole winter.  They have all seen drought conditions down there since December and that ridge has lifted north and now dominates the Northeast's weather.  The long range GFS is showing mid 70s and sun but no rain but thats ok because didnt Dave E tell us that we should have a cold wet Spring?  I think maybe his long range needs some fine tuning.  Isnt that right Teske!!!!
April 23, 2008 3:58 PM
 

Sal said:

Hey Paul,
Thanks for the brown bag idea.  I feel it helping me already.  I kinda like the Viagara though!   I'm keeping it!  Hope you're right about the GFS long range.  After this wonderful stretch of delightful weather, it's hard to take anything less.
April 23, 2008 4:28 PM
 

adamgoss23 said:

Dave I gotta say this weather is great but you know as well as anybody that this weather is coming to an end. All due to a blocking ridge of high pressure that allowed Syracuse to be the warmest city in the northeast on Sunday with a HIgh of 78 degrees and just 24 hours prior from that Syracuse had a record high of 87 set. Remember at the beginning of the week where we couldnt even get out of the 40s on April 13 the high reached 44 and it was 49 on Monday April 14th. I love this weather the trees are really in bloom which doesnt happen until at least Mid May but we need a pattern shift or some rain around the area. This is not normal to be having brush fires in April here in Central NY. Its also been above average for a week now which is great to have the windows open at night and the heat off finally. Do this in a week. Heat on at night to having a fan in the window for more then 3 nights in a row. This is also good because it gives everyone a chance to clean up the yard outside as well
April 23, 2008 5:00 PM
 

dlongley said:

7:30 update....Well, we ended up with a severe thunderstorm warning south of Syracuse this evening with the storms.  Activity will start to shift east here over the next couple of hours.

The cooldown next week has been forecast for days by the Euro and Canadian and the GFS is now on board.  It's only a 1 or 2 day affair though, as the ridge tries to pump back up in the east later next week.  Some of the GFS runs I saw early this morning indicated we wouldn't get out of the 40s next Tuesday/Wednesday.  I didn't bite because of the tendency for the GFS to be too cold in terms of long range cooldowns.  The 12Z GFS was downright chilly, with 850s approaching -9C by Wednesday morning.  Certainly cool enough for some snowflakes to mix in.  The new 18Z GFS is warmer, with the coldest 850 temp around 0C or so.  Certainly enough to end our streak of 70s.  We'll see what the new runs have tomorrow.

You've read reference to the Greenland block, and the upper pattern is quite amplified with that mid Atlantic ridge rearing its head from time to time.  For the next couple weeks we should see some fairly sizeable swings from cool to quite warm and back.  Let's all remember that this is late April.  We're in the midst of record setting stuff.  If we can get highs in the 70s the next 3 days, this will be the longest streak of 70 degree warmth in April we've EVER seen.  Truly incredible.

Dave
April 23, 2008 6:39 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

8PM Update...While Syracuse ended up with enough rain late this afternoon to knock the dust down (a trace)  there was some heavier rain over the Finger Lakes and now over the counties south of Syracuse.  There was even a report of hail in Seneca Falls during news time as the storms briefly flared up.  A weakening trend started around 6:30 PM and should continue as we are nearing sunset and losing any chance for additional warming.

To add to what Dave said earlier the 12z GFS was cold implying some snowflakes and temperatures in the low 40s Wednesday.  Since the GFS tends to be a bit too cold that far out in time we didn't bite on the snow scenario but we do think temperatures will be below normal during the middle of next week. It will be interesting to see how far down those last couple days of the month knock our April temperature anomaly.  Right now we are about 7 degrees above normal and we may add to that through Saturday before the cool down begins.

Jim
April 23, 2008 6:59 PM
 

Bonnie said:

Boy it sure seems like it's from one extreme to the other.  But I have to say...I've been talking of opening my pool since January and it's finally done!!  Now just have to wait for it to warm up a bit  :)   Bring on the warm temps to stay!!
April 24, 2008 8:41 AM
 

MO said:

Mr Longley  Can you reccommend any good "college level" books on meteorology?  I'm looking for something fairly in-depth to learn more about weather and how forecasting works.

Thanks!
April 24, 2008 9:27 AM
 

Kathy said:

Bonnie, I knew you would be opening that pool already!  You and my aunt!  I'm waiting until June - I guess I'm too cheap to start running the filter, yet.  
April 24, 2008 1:19 PM
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