It has been a remarkable stretch of weather this week across central New York. High pressure down at the ground and aloft built into the Northeast midweek and it is entrenched over us.  Think of it as a big roadblock in the atmosphere;it's holding back all comers at this point.

Our biggest point of contention this week was whether we would get any rain in here by the end of the week.  We knew we would be dealing with a storm in the upper atmopshere moving through middle part of the country at this point but there were questions as to how it would interact with high pressure here in the East. Would it A) weaken and move through the Northeast or would it B) be shunted south down toward the Virginias and Carolinas?  The computer models that showed each of these scenarios held their ground all week.  As of today (Friday) the computer model favoring scenario A (the GFS) has blinked and sided with the farther south solution.  We kept the shower in for Sunday afternoon but mainly to cover any showers that try to sneak into the Finger Lakes.  Elsewhere across central New York I think there odds are good that the weekend will stay dry.

I am a bit surprised by how quickly we warmed up this week. Being well above normal is no shock but to get into the upper 70s I would have figured we would have needed more wind than we've had. One thing I noticed is that the computer models did a poor job earlier in the week of forecasting the temperatures at 5,000 feet for the end of the week. This time of year that level is key if you are going to forecast high temperatures on a sunny day. On those types of days the air in the lower 5,000 feet of the atmosphere is usually well 'mixed' That means air near the surface rises and is replaced by air aloft. As the air aloft sinks it warms at a set rate. If it's coming from 5,000 ft it will warm by 13c. Those temperatures aloft were off by 3 or 4 degrees C which is why 72 degrees turned into 78 on Thursday.  If a previous post about Accu-Weather forecasting 78 for Friday is true I say kudos to them.

Have a good weekend!

Jim