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Taste of Spring-Part 2

It's a chilly start to the new week but there is a nice warm up in store the rest of the week here in central New York. Here's what's happening.

There is a trough of low pressure sitting over the eastern US right now. This trough is associated with some pretty chilly air and we expect our temperatures to remain about 10 degrees below normal.  Down south, where the growing season has begun, there are frost and freeze warnings out Monday morning.  However, there will be a rather dramatic change unfolding over the next few days.

That trough of low pressure will pull out and move to our east. In it's place, high pressure aloft (a ridge) will build into the east and temperatures will respond quickly, going from 40s today to near 70 by as early Wednesday. The good news is that once the ridge moves in it won't be in a hurry to leave. That's why we think most of the week will be dry. Our next chance for precipitation, and it's not a great chance, comes late Friday as a cold front approaches from the north.  That means it's going to be moisture starved. Since the ground is still pretty saturated across central New York, this stretch of dry weather comes at a good time. The April sunshine and eventually a stregthening southwest wind will combine to create ideal drying conditions.

Jim

Published Monday, April 14, 2008 9:42 AM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

Sal said:

So Jim, I'm going to put you on the spot....do you think this is truly the start of spring for us or are we just being teased with more cold weather to follow?  My gut tells me we might have one more cold shot in early May...you know, temps falling back to the 40's and low 50's.
April 14, 2008 9:08 AM
 

nature chris said:

Jim, Do you see a frost in the forecast for early Tuesday morning? My tulips are already growing leaves and i'm wondering if I should cover them. Many thanks.

April 14, 2008 9:14 AM
 

Eric said:

I've got the same hunch as Sal. Personally, I'm hoping it stays warm.
April 14, 2008 9:15 AM
 

rescue141x said:

It's New York guys.. of course it's going to fall back into the 40's and 50's lol
April 14, 2008 10:10 AM
 

Sal said:

For nature chris...don't worry about your tulips.  It can't get cold enough to freeze them out.  They are way too hardy.  Trust me on that one.
April 14, 2008 11:00 AM
 

Jim Teske said:

Nature chris,

I'll take Sal's word on the tulips. Since they bloom early in the season my hunch was they would survive some frost. I don't have as much of a green thumb as Dave E. Dewpoints are low right now but they typically reach there lowest point by early to mid afternoon on a day like today.  I expect the dewpoint to come up a bit this evening so that's why I like the 27 for Syracuse overnight. Of course, outlying areas and colder, deeper valleys will be closer to 20 than 30 tonight.

Sal,

In one of our computer models I still see high pressure (ie a ridge) up over northern Greenland at times over the next two weeks. Until that stops showing up I won't be 100% convinced that the warm air is here to stay in CNY. We shall see.

Jim
April 14, 2008 11:36 AM
 

SJC REMODELING said:

Well I hope all the warm weather is here to stay. There is much work in the remodeling business that is counting on it.
April 14, 2008 8:30 PM
 

Sal said:

Jim...NWS is now saying one model is indicating a cut off low may move directly east over the weekend from the midwest and spoil our weekend weather.  I seem to get the impression the NWS isn't biting on this just yet though as they keep clear weather over us through Sunday.  Are you seeing the same thing?  I was hoping to do lots of yard work this weekend and hate to have Mother Nature rain down on my plans.  Any updates would be appreciated.
Oh, Nature Chris, was I right?  Did your tulips survive last night's cold?
April 15, 2008 5:33 AM
 

Jim Teske said:

Sal,

Right now Sunday and Monday are the toughest part of the forecast.  The low pressure in question moves into PA/MD during Sunday on the GFS and most of it's ensembles.  The European and Canadian models are farther south, down over the Carolinas.  Our concern is that even if the GFS is a bit too far north with this low the wind over us would be out of the southeast and that would bring Atlantic moisture our way.  We'll keep you posted.

Jim
April 15, 2008 9:37 AM
 

wcbb321 said:

Jim, is this warm weather any indication of what's in store for the rest of spring, or is it just a typical warm stretch ?  It would sure be nice not to worry about frost all the way into June. LOL
April 15, 2008 9:09 PM
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