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A Taste of Spring

10:30 AM Tuesday, by Dave Longley - By taste I mean warm weather and sunshine, as opposed to the garlic scent wafting through my office from Rick Gary's recipe on Bridge Street.

Once again, we have that marine layer to our south across southern NY and Pennsylvania.  Those low clouds tried to creep north, but have been stuggling to hold together.  I think the sun/clouds forecast should hold through the afternoon.  Dewpoints have come up some, into the mid 30s, and the breeze has come down some, but it's still there.  Just a heads up if you're going to be out this evening, you might want to dress a little warmer than what you would think, given temps around 60.  I know.  I froze at Little League practice last night.

There's a cold front on the map to our west, but that won't be an issue today.  It will remain just to our north and west.  A second front will approach during the day Wednesday.  We'll start out dry tomorrow, but I expect a period of midday cloudiness, which could bring a brief shower tomorrow afternoon.

Drier and slightly cooler air will arrive Thursday.  That's fertilizer day for me.  The darn wind has been too strong the past couple days to use the spreader.  So we'll get it down Thursday, before the late-week rains.  That should work out perfect.  I like it when a plan comes together.

Dave

Published Tuesday, April 08, 2008 10:23 AM by dlongley

Comments

 

Pat Condello said:

Dave,

What kind of wind are we talking about for tomorrow? I'm especially interested about wind direction up along the south shore of Lake Ontario
April 8, 2008 11:31 AM
 

Ryan said:

Dave - It looks like the long range has already shifted to a much warmer trend vs the cooler trend.  Does this mean that the blocking is forecasted to break over the weekend because next weeks temps are in the 50's and after that it looks like high 60's?  It also shows a much warmer forecast than your forecast on Monday, it shows 51 with rain showers.  I guess your not much different being in the high 40s.  It looks like I just awnsered my own question while im "typing" out loud.  
April 8, 2008 12:11 PM
 

Ryan said:

Dave.  One more question, the blogg below suggests that we could be sitting pretty in the middle of all of this?


No doubt, the highlight of the week will be the formation of a major storm over the central U.S. on Thursday. This storm will be remembered for the widespread severe weather outbreak that we anticipate over the central and lower Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley region later Thursday and Thursday night. This storm could produce a lot of tornadoes. Steady rain ahead of this storm should spread into southwestern Ontario Thursday night. As the storm moves up toward the Great Lakes Friday it will begin to stall as a big blocking high over eastern Canada gets in the way. If this track holds, then we may see another moderate-size snow event in the region around Lake Superior once again Friday into Friday night. Rain will eventually spread into the remainder of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec sometime Friday, but as the blocking high to the north strengthens, it will force a pocket of colder air farther to the south, causing a cold air damming situation across far northern New England and southern Quebec by Friday night and that could mean we see the rain changing over to snow or sleet from near Ottawa to Montreal to Quebec City. Stay tuned for more on this tomorrow and Wednesday.

4. That same blocking high will also force the Great Lakes storm to transfer its energy to a secondary storm near southern New England early Saturday. The eventual track and intensity of this second storm will be key in determining how much snow, if any, falls over southern Quebec, far northern New England and interior New Brunswick through the early part of the weekend.


April 8, 2008 12:17 PM
 

Mike H said:

Dave L--One thing I always wondered is why doesn't any of the meteorologists forecast rainfall precip. and show a map of how much rain is expected throughout the day.  For example, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all seem unsettled with rain.  Why not put up an expected rainfall map like you do for snow?

Only reason I say this, is because I'm a farmer and rainfall amounts really are important to our occupation.

Thank you and keep up the great work you all do!
April 8, 2008 6:58 PM
 

Ryan said:

To Mike H.  Here is what accuweather is forecasting for rain totals.

Rain Total:1.27 in Occurring:    Apr 9 | Apr 11 | Apr 12 | Apr 13
April 9, 2008 7:54 AM
 

dlongley said:

Mike H.  Thanks for the idea.  You know, I've been wrestling with just how to visualize this.  I feel like you do, when we have raindrops in for 5 days straight.  What does it actually mean?  Also, if you're trying to plan around those showers, how best to portray what's going to happen.  That's where percentages get tricky.  If it only rains for half a day, what's the percentage of precipitation (POP)?  I'd say 100%, because it definitely rained.   I'll keep thinking about that.

Dave
April 9, 2008 11:51 AM
 

Mike B. said:

I see we are going to have the triple whammy(cloudy,cold,rain) over the ENTIRE weekend. I think I am going to crawl in a hole and not come out until next Wednesday!
April 9, 2008 5:31 PM
 

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