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Weather Discussion

Where's the Sun?

Posted 10 AM Monday, Dave Longley - After a beautiful, sunny, Sunday, clouds have crept back into CNY.  A little different set up with this one.  High pressure parked well off to our northeast is responsible for the cloudiness.  The clockwise wind flow around that high has set up a southeast wind flow, right toward us from the Atlantic Ocean.  We'll need some patience, but I still feel that we will be able to brighten things up this afternoon.  The eastern edge of this cloud shield is eroding away with dry air coming at us from New England.  What I think will happen is that as the sun gets higher, mixing from the sun, will stir up the lower atmosphere, drying up the clouds.  The ceiling height is 3200 feet at 9 AM, and this time of year, the sun can mix the lower atmosphere to a depth of up to 5000 feet.  So hang in there, we should see developing sun by Noon.

Temperatures should be in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon, but we will still see some gusty southeast winds blowing between 10 and 20 mph.  Dewpoints are in the low 30s, so one good thing is that the breeze, along with our developing sun this afternoon, will help to dry out wet yards that many of us are looking forward to getting out and doing some work in.

Temperatures look to remain mild through this week, as a fairly persistent trough sets up in the western US, pumping up a ridge in the jet stream over the eastern US.  That's great.  What's not so great is that trough is forecast to translate eastward across the county, taking up residence in the Northeastern US next week.  This will lead to a prolonged period of crummy, damp and chilly weather.  Yes, I think there will be some snowflakes in the air next week.  So, let's get out and enjoy this week's weather!

Dave

Published Monday, April 07, 2008 9:48 AM by dlongley

Comments

 

Sal said:

So next week's "spring" break will be anything but.  Hey, at least we got a week to  finally get our first taste of spring this year.
Dave, are the computer models indicating this cool down/snow flake issue will be short term or will be in it for a week or two?
April 7, 2008 10:28 AM
 

Mike said:

What snow flake issue? Next week may be cool but only in the 40's.  There will be rain next week with probably higher elevation wet snow but thats about it.
April 7, 2008 11:19 AM
 

georgie said:

Dave,

I posted last week. Just an update on what you are expecting in Myrtle BEach nest week
April 7, 2008 11:37 AM
 

Mike B said:

Dave,what is your best guess as to how long the below normal weather next week will last-1 week,2 weeks,even 1 month?  Why are these blocking patterns so prevalent in the Northeast?
April 7, 2008 7:45 PM
 

Sal said:

Accu-weather seems to be painting a very bleak picture weatherwise, for about 2 weeks once the colder than normal temps arrive this weekend.  They're even calling for some snow on the 22nd!  Dave, can you verify that outlook or is it poppycock?
And I'm also interested in the same question asked by Mike B...why the blocking patterns so prevalent this year?
April 8, 2008 5:18 AM
 

dlongley said:

Good morning everyone, I hope you're all enjoying the sun and mild temperatures.  As for the longer range forecast, I think I have some good news.  A few days ago, it looked downright miserable for the next week or so.  I have seen some major improvement over the past couple of days.  As many of you know, by reading my posts, I don't like to jump on a particular model run, but instead like to watch things for a couple of days, and then come up with a consensus forecast.  I haven't had a chance to look at all the data, but what I've seen would indicate the cool down for next Monday/Tuesday, will quickly scoot off to our north and east, with some more mild air the second half of next week.  Then we'd see a minor cooldown the weekend of the 15th, then perhaps some very mild air the week of the 17th.  We'll see.

As for the question posed by Mike B about why the blocks are happening, that's a great question.  The atmosphere does like to settle into stable patterns.  Sometimes we enjoy the fruits of the blocking with a ridge of quiet, sunny weather.  Sometimes we get slammed with crummy weather with a cut-off low forming in the Northeast.   Unfortunately there is no one answer as to why this happens.  Blocks can form as a result of oceanic temperatures (that's more of a long-lasting event) to pattern changes occurring across the Northern Hemisphere.

-Dave
April 8, 2008 6:04 AM
 

Mike B said:

Thanks for the explanation,Dave. Several years ago there was a list in the local newspaper of U.S. cities with the worst weather. Syracuse was rated the 5th worst weather in the U.S. I was not surprised! It appears based on temperatures in past springs that most years there has been a cold spell here some time during the spring.
April 8, 2008 7:28 AM
 

dlongley said:

Georgie,

I've been keeping an eye on the weather down in SC.  Sunday will have a few showers and thunderstorms as a cold front comes through.  Temps will be somewhere in the low to perhaps mid 70s.

There may be a lingering shower Monday, and it will be much cooler with highs only in the low 60s.

Another chilly, breezy day is expected Tuesday, with highs in the low 60s.  There should be some sun.

The rest of the week will be sunny, with rising temps.  I would think at least mid 70s.  It all depends on whether you can get west winds, or the winds stay light and come in off the ocean.

Enjoy your trip!

Dave
April 8, 2008 9:21 AM
 

Eric said:

Dave-
When do you guys think we'll actually see temps at or above 70? (If you don't know, that's quite all right. I'm only curious).
April 11, 2008 12:24 PM
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