Dave L.  How come nobody is talking about this afternoon for thunderstorms and severe weather?  

MORE SEVERE WEATHER, WIND AND FLOODING RAIN

1. The focus of severe weather will be across western and central New York into western and central Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening as dry-slot thunderstorms develop. The other area of severe storms will be from eastern Texas through southern Alabama where storms with damaging winds, heavy rain and hail occur along the tail end of the front.

Sara,  this radar image, http://weather.cod.edu/mcnexrad/Indiana_Ohio.gif will show you where the front is at 10 this morning.  That skinny line of storms would have to evolve into something big.  This satellite picture, http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/1km/Erie_Ontario.gif shows quite a bit of cloudiness that will prevent any significant heating.  There's some warmer air up around 18,000 feet (500 mb) that will tend to cap the atmosphere, preventing significant cloud development.  

What today does have going for it is some wicked strong wind fields.  Any showers or thunderstorms that develop will be able to tap into those strong winds, and could transport them down to the ground.  If we do see any severe weather, it will be masked within the strong winds that are already present.  For the sake of time, I felt it is more important to play up the strong winds that everyone will see today.  I'm assuming what you included in your post was from Accu-Weather.  Here is the latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center for New York:

  ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
 
  ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
  A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
  GREAT LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER LAKE
  HURON...WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING EWD TO QUEBEC AND NEW
  ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE
  UPPER OH VALLEY/WRN PA/WRN NY TODAY...AND OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND AND
  MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT.  THIS FRONT IS PRECEDED BY A
  RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
  56-60 F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S W OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A
  NARROW PLUME OF 55-60 F DEWPOINTS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO
  CHESAPEAKE BAY.  THESE SEPARATE MOISTURE PLUMES WILL SPREAD NEWD TO
  WRN PA/NY AND ERN PA/NJ/SE NY...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE MODEST SURFACE
  HEATING OCCURS WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS.
 
  THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MEAGER
  INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE POOR MID LEVEL
  LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 250 J/KG.  MOST OF THE BUOYANCY
  WILL BE CONFINED TO BELOW THE 500 MB LEVEL...AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY
  FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SHALLOW WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING.  THERE
  IS SOME EARLY INDICATION OF A VERY SHALLOW/WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS
  ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN INDIANA/NW OH/SE LOWER MI...AND IT WOULD BE
  INTENSIFICATION OF THIS BAND LATER TODAY THAT MAY POSE SOME THREAT
  FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR IS TRANSFERED TO THE GROUND.
   HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT
  THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

The one thing that will change is if a large dry slot develops this afternoon in advance of the cold front to warm us higher than 67.  If we hit 70, then we could have issues.  At this point though, that's a pretty crummy looking satellite picture, with slim chances for sun.

Good question!
-Dave

RE: Oneida Lake ice -- keep in mind too that that ice is quite thick still. Last week we still had about 13 inches -- this could be a good thing...too heavy to move or a bad thing...if it does move it, it'll do alot of damage.
I'll be certain to keep you posted and email any pictures I might be able to get.

Think Spring!!!

Dave-
What's your thoughts on next week... Do you think it'll stay in the 50's or could it get warmer?

With all this on and off rain today it looks like our chances for 70 degrees is not good.  I'm not thinking severe thunderstorms for us today!

Yeah Bonnie, the rain killed us....I think.  The front is moving into WNY as of 3.  I've got 67 here in Cicero, and Fulton is at 66.  SYR has cooled to 63 with the rain.  It might be tough to get some thunder.

Eric, our longer range models are still not synching up, but certainly 50s or perhaps even low 60s might be possible, come Wednesday or Thursday next week.  Keep you fingers crossed!

Dave

Tuesday's weather has really been a tease. It better not snow tonight! I thought it was safe to put away the shovel for good!

p.s. Do you think the weather will be comfortable enough at the ballpark on Thursday?

So I guess this is the end of the snow season, unless WSYR is forecasting a freak snowstorm.

I just took a look at records going back to 2003 and the records said that there has been precip on every April fools day (from 2003-current). What I am wondering is: Has there been an April fools day without precip?

Thanks for the info, Dave. It sure made my son happy to be able to play outside without needing more than a light jacket.
You guys do a heck of a job with the forecasting, I'm sure this past winter was not an easy one to predict...

Wow that wind last night sounded like a train coming through!

Tom,

It's been dry on April 1st 23 times over the last 106 years.  The last time was 2000.

Jim