Posted 10 AM Thursday - Dave Longley - The battle lines have been drawn, and of course we're on the cold side of things.  This map shows the issue.  The temperature is the red number.  That's what you need to focus on.

You can see the warmth across the Southeast US and the cooler air over us.  Dividing those airmasses is a front that will remain draped from the Midwest, through southern PA.  Little impulses riding eastward along that front will bring precipitation our way.  Anything today will be light and spotty, primarily this afternoon.

The issue is tonight.  A cold front is forecast to move through CNY, bringing in some cooler air.  A stronger area of low pressure is forecast to move through Pennsylvania, spreading moisture into central New York.  The precip could start as rain, but everything should change over to snow.  The question on everyone's mind is how much?

Here's what I'm dealing with.  You always want to know what we're looking at.  I've got one computer model which has done horribly this winter, printing out the potential of 5 to 10 inches of snow (or more for us)  The most consistent information this week (and for much of this winter for that matter) has been consistently drier all week, but is now trending wetter, indicating 3 to 6 inches of snow for all of CNY.   

The snow that comes in tonight will be wet, with temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30.  Snowfall ratios will be on the order of 10 to 1 (10 inches of snow melted down to 1 inch of water).  Given that, and what I've seen for model qpf, I'm thinking 1 to 4 inches of snow through much of CNY, but 4 or more inches in the higher elevations across southern NY.  That's a bit of a range, but the time of year, along with the spread in forecast info I'm looking at, kind of forced me into that range.  Also, higher elevations will be a bit cooler, so as is often the case this time of year, the snow will pile up there a little easier.

One more thing to chew on is just how warm we get today.  We're already at 41 as of 10 AM.  If we get into the upper 40s to near 50 today, that may make it a little harder to accumulate snow when the precip first arrives. 

Bottom line though, I just don't think this will be a huge dumping of snow (despite what the NAM is showing) but I would expect the ground to be covered as we head out tomorrow morning.  Steady snow will taper to flurries Friday, with temps only in the mid and upper 30s.

More to come after I get a look at the new data.

Dave