9:45 AM Wednesday - Temperatures are starting to drop behind a cold front that has moved through central New York.  The temperature drop isn't real big, but the combination of that cold advection and increasing sun, will likely keep temperatures pretty steady around 40 today. 

Winds have been gusty through the morning, and it'll remain breezy through the day.  So, when does the sun get out?  As I talked about on The Morning News, we'll keep the unsettled weather in here through Noon, then skies will start to brighten.  This satellite picture shows the clearing, and it's progress east:  http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/1km/New_York.gif

A weak bubble of high pressure will build down over us later today and tonight, and we should have fairly clear skies tonight.  Temperatures won't be as cold as earlier nights this week, but we should still make it into the mid 20s.

Thursday's not looking to bad.  Winds will be lighter, and will become northerly.  We should see some sun in the morning, but clouds will increase through the day.  I've been toying with our precipitation chances for late tomorrow, and I'm starting to lean toward keeping us dry through the daylight hours tomorrow.  The models want to warm us to around 45, but with the northerly winds, and increasing clouds, I can't see us getting much above 40.  I'll keep it a little optimistic and go 43. 

Now Friday.  As Jim Teske alluded to in earlier posts, there were some questions as to the evolution of a storm system arriving in the Northeast for week's end.  Things are starting to become clearer.  And colder.  The warmest solution, the NAM, has been trending colder.  Instead of a low track over us, or to our north, it's trending toward moving the low to our south across Pennsylvania.  I'm feeling more confident in that whatever falls Friday, will fall as snow.  How much is in question, but my gut tells me the heaviest will occur along the NY/PA line.  The best chance to see any accumulating snow would be from later Thursday night, through the first half of Friday.  By later Friday, that system would move away from us, and another shot of cold will plunge down on us for Saturday.

One thing to keep in your mind is the possibility that this thing Friday could miss us to our south, and not bring us much precipitation at all.  The ECMWF, UKMET, GEM have all been trending that way.  I'll be anxious to see the new model runs this morning.

Once again, there's some mighty chilly air rearing it's head in Quebec, Canada, that will be shot southward over us Saturday.  850mb temps around -15C would only support highs in the 20s.  I'm not ready to bite on that just yet after the models overdid the cold over us last weekend.  I would be in the mindset that Saturday will be a chilly day, whether it's upper 20s or low 30s. 

Winds will start to come around Sunday, and after a cold start, we should see temperatures rebound back to near 40.

-Dave