Updated 7:45 PM Monday...What a beautiful end to Monday with lots of sunshine. Unfortunately things are going to be more unsettled after the middle of the day Tuesday.

We will loose our sunshine quickly Tuesday afternoon as warmer weather tries to return.  There is an area of low pressure that will track east along the Canadian-US border. Southerly winds are what will help warm us up. However, there will also be some moisture headed our way, too. Some rain will break out late Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.  At times Tuesday night the rain could mix with some snow. If the precipitation is steady enough there could be a very light accumulations of snow over higher elevations.

That cold front will sweep through central New York later Tuesday night and end up stalled (west to east) down over the Mid Atlantic states. The bone of contention is where this front ends up during the end of the week. It looks like there may be several areas of low pressure that try to form along the front and move east. Each one of these lows would try to bring precipitation to central New York.

There have been a myriad of solutions from our computer models Monday afternoon. The 12z GFS takes a low to our south Saturday but a number of the GFS ensembles were slower with this 'main' low and took it to our west (implying a warmer and rainier solution). The 12z European model also tracked a low to our west Saturday. The 18z GFS is still to the south of us with the low but faster (suggesting drier weather Sunday). So until we see a little more consensus we are going to go with rain or snow Friday/Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday. We'll keep you posted as the week goes along.

Jim