Posted 9 AM Tuesday - Dave Longley - It wouldn't be the middle of the week if we didn't have some unsettled weather to talk about. Actually, a pretty messy weathermap greets us this morning, with a warm front to our south, and a long area of wet weather from the Ohio Valley all the way down into Texas. An upper level low pressure area over the Southwest will eject out and head out way, bringing increasing chances of rain for tonight and Wednesday.
The initial surge of moisture coming at us this morning is fighting some very dry air. Precipitation will eventually make it in here this afternoon. We likely see some rain, sleet and/or snow. The reason for this mix is that when the precipitation evaporates in the air above us, the air will cool back below freezing. So a light mixture is likely this afternoon, but ground temperatures should make it above freezing, meaning just wet roads for the evening commute.
Light rain showers are likely tonight, with some light icing possible north and east of Syracuse across the Adirondacks and parts of the Mohawk Valley. I'm thinking this will be a marginal icing situation, so there shouldn't be any major travel problems.
Low pressure, which will be the surface reflection of that upper level thing coming at us from the Southwest will move into Pennsylvania Wednesday. That low will do a good job at shoving the warm air in here tomorrow, and we still think temperatures tomorrow could get up to 50 or so.
As that low deepens and moves to our east Wednesday night, cold air will likely get sucked down our way, changing rain to snow. These are always tough forecasts, as we try to determine if we'll be cold enough for snow, and have enough moisture around for it to amount to anything. Right now, I would expect a couple inches of wet snow by the time we get up Thursday morning. As the storm strengthens, it will set us up for a windy start to Spring Thursday with snow showers. Afternoon temperatures Thursday should be in the mid 30s, so I wouldn't expect much accumulation.
That storm will end up taking up residence across southeast Canada right into the Easter weekend. This will suppress the jet stream to our south through the weekend, meaning temperatures will remain unseasonably cold. Most medium range models don't indicate any significant snows for the Northeast. But....the Euro from last night does have the possibility of some significant snows Sunday night into Monday. That's just one run, and I'm not ready to jump onto that bandwagon yet. Today's model runs should start to shed some more light on that. For now, we're keeping the cold forecast with some sun and flurries into Monday.
Dave
