Welcome to Sign in | Join | Help
in
Back to 9WSYR.COM Your Corner Home Your Corner Blogs Your Corner Forums Your Corner Photos Your Corner Community Calendar

Weather Discussion

Teske's Tidbits (3/13/08) The One About Winter 'Spurts'

Our winters here in Central New York can be quite long. The snow can start in early November and linger into April (some years it’s before Halloween and we’ve had snow around for May college graduations and Mother’s Day!)  A closer look at the data shows its not one long snow fest but the seasonal snowfall is made up of 2 or 3 week spurts.

 

Take this winter as an example. For the first 2 ½ weeks of December we went great guns.  It snowed just about everyday and over a 17 day period we had almost 4 feet of snow (45.4”) of snow.  That short period accounts for over 40% of our seasonal snow total so far.

 

I went back over just the past few winters and found these streaks or spurts were pretty common. 

 

                                                      Snowfall          Season              % Season Total 

 

Feb 5-18 2007             14 Days           48”                   140.2”              34%

 

Dec 1-17 2005             17 Days           45”                   124.6”              36%

 

Feb 9-28 2005             20 Days           43.4”                136.2”              32%

 

Jan 11-31 2004            21 Days           69.1”                181.3”              38%

 

 

Personally I think this is just a graphic example of how we get ‘locked’ into a cold pattern here in the Northeast. While the jet stream is always changing and evolving on a day to day basis if you averaged out the jet stream pattern over these 2 to 3 week periods you would find one common denominator: all these spurts can be characterized by a trough of low pressure in the Eastern United States. While there are Nor’easters sprinkled in these time frames it looked like the majority of the snow came from lake effect snow.

 

I went back a bit farther in time and found the ultimate snow ‘spurt’ for Syracuse.  It was during the middle of the winter of 1965-66 when over a 5 day period we had 47.4”  This was during the Blizzard of 1966 and it accounted for an astounding 41% of the total snowfall that entire winter!

 

The Lake Effect Challenge for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society is now past $29 thanks to a couple mentions today (3/13/08).  Y 94 DJ Kathy Rowe wanted to know if it was time to end the contest but given the pattern I was seeing through the end of the month I said we should keep it going a while.

Published Thursday, March 13, 2008 2:08 PM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

Eric said:

Just curiously, when do you guys think we'll see the last snowfall for the season? (If the answer is I don't know,") that's fine...
March 13, 2008 1:23 PM
 

Tom said:

Where's the Blizzard of '93 anneversary page?
March 13, 2008 4:12 PM
 

Bonnie said:

Looks like the Blizzard of '93 anniversary went by the wayside!  Happy 15th anniversary!
March 13, 2008 5:26 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

We just got the Blizzard of '93 page up and running.  Go to the main weather page and look for the link on the left side of the page.  It's near the links for the Ice Storm Anniversary and Winter in A Week links.

As far as last snow is concerned I don't have a date in mind but I'm thinking sometime in early April.  I don't have any model data to back that up.  It's just a gut feeling at this point. I know our Spring forecast says we are leaning toward above normal snow for April but our 'average' is only 4" so it wouldn't take much early in the month to get to that total.

Jim
March 13, 2008 5:57 PM
 

Capt Dave said:

Go away snow and cold. I'm starting next week getting my boat ready for spring launch! The marina opens April 1 st and I want to be ready!
March 13, 2008 7:18 PM
 

Mike B. said:

Accuweather is forecasting a high of only 32 degrees for Easter! Say it isn't so,Dave!
March 13, 2008 8:01 PM
 

sandy said:

dont listen to Accuweather they are always wrong. Hey Kevin  where have you ben?  Are you defending  people?  Yea right. I dont think so. Hows Mcdonalds?
March 13, 2008 8:10 PM
 

Sal said:

In response to Mike B....I've been saying all winter long that we'll probably have more snow on the ground for Easter, than we did for Christmas.  Accuweather seems to be trending toward a cold second half of the month so we may have to wait a bit longer than usual for spring this year (assuming they are right) and I do agree with sandy, Accuweather is wrong a lot of times but they seem to be pretty good with trend forecasting.  That is, being able to tell that a storm is coming a week or two away or what the temperature trend will be a week or two from now.  
I guess time will tell.
March 14, 2008 5:20 AM
 

dennis kochem said:

great info!  by the way, where could i get the snowfall amounts for either hamilton, ny or madison county for december 2006 and january 2007?  if you have that, and could forward it from your data, that would be greatly appreciated.  if not, is there a website i can look up that info on my own?  i know winter did not really start that season until MLK birthday, but it is important i find that info for a research project i am doing.  thanks!!!!!
March 14, 2008 8:15 AM
 

Bonnie said:

What a nice taste of spring today!!
March 14, 2008 3:24 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

Dennis,

Try this web site:

http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/StationSnowSummary.aspx

Type in "NY-MD-9" for the station number then enter the dates you are looking for.  The is a cooperative observer from Earlville for the National Weather Service.  This is as close as I could find for Hamilton.

Jim
March 14, 2008 7:08 PM
 

Tom said:

Wat's the Syracuse station number?
March 15, 2008 3:37 PM
 

ed said:

Speaking of the Blizzard of 1966 - the ultimate "spurt" (I'll say!): Are there any summaries of how that storm developed? I was a kid at the time and knew nothing about weather, so it was just a lot of snow. Now, thanks to these comprehensive weather discussions, I'm at least a little familiar with fronts, jet streams, lows and troughs, and lake effect. So I think back and wonder what that storm was made of - nor'easter followed by lots of lake effect? Two storms from the west and the south "colliding"? Maybe just a really big storm! Is there data on it or any websites or articles?
March 16, 2008 11:05 AM
 

Jim Teske said:

Tom,

Here are a full list of Onondaga County observer.  The closet to Syracuse would probably be the Liverpool, Mattydale or DeWitt locations.

As far as the Blizzard of '66 is concerned it was brutally cold before the storm.  One of the 3 times we were as cold as -26 in Syracuse was January 26, 4 days before the storm.  The track of the storm, I believe, was right up the Hudson Valley.  Given the very cold air in place before the storm that would have been a perfect track for central New York.  

If I find any web sites about the Blizzard worth passing along I will post it here.

Jim
March 16, 2008 4:31 PM
 

Chris said:

The one about why channel 9 always has the wrong temps for the week.  Why are your temps so cold for the weekend.  Everyone else has a great nice easter weekend..........Thanks for the hype
March 17, 2008 11:15 AM
 

Tired of DING-DONGS said:

Chris...
What a DING DONG. Why don't you just listen to "everyone else" and stop listening to channel 9. Then maybe we won't have to see your negative posts. There's enough negativity around without you adding to it.
March 17, 2008 11:47 AM
 

Tired Of Over Weight Comp Geeks said:

Hey dumbass.  I call it as I see it.  Why doesnt it puzzle the viewers of channel 9 why they are consistenly way off with temps and within a few days they will change it.  It is going to be a beautiful easter weekend with temps in the low 40s and lots of sun but if you plan around this forecast, well your better off planning for a overcast cold lake effect day.  Well Done Newschannel 9.  And by the way, I do watch "everyone else" but I still need to post when I see a dumbass forecast like this one!!!
March 17, 2008 12:00 PM
 

Overweight Comp Geek said:

If you don't like the forecasts, don't watch channel 9. If your tired of overweight comp geeks, quit dating them.
March 17, 2008 12:41 PM
 

Scott said:

Sorry about the children above. You give them the privilege of using a computer (and this blog) and this is how they act. Remember, kids, what your mother said: if you can't say anything good about someone then don't say anything at all.
More to the point: Dave or Jim do you see a lot of snow on Thursday or Friday from the "backside" of this storm system when the temps. get colder. Also, do you see a sunny Easter weekend (cold or not) for the finger lakes. That is what the NWS is calling for.  AS always, thanks for all your hard work.
March 17, 2008 4:22 PM
 

Tom said:

I discovored something weird about seasonal snowfall averages. One seasonal snowfall average says that Syracuse should have 111.9" for the season while another says that we should have 121.1" for the season. I think the 111.9" snowfall average is more accurate because it is all the daily snowfall averages added up. So here is my question for news channel 9: why do you think the 121.1" snowfall average is more accurate?
March 17, 2008 5:18 PM
 

Mike said:

http://www.wstm.com/weather/images/uploaded/7day.jpg

Hey Dave E.  Stop being a donkey about this weekend.  Your forecast is about as accurate as Teske's full head of hair.
March 17, 2008 8:11 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

Just a few comments.  This evening I checked some other forecasts for the weekend for Syracuse and all had below normal temperatures so the consensus seems that it will be a colder than normal Easter weekend. While most are saying 6-8 degrees colder than normal we are more like 8-10 degrees colder.

We look carefully at temperatures at 5,000 feet not only for lake effect but they give us clues as to what our highs might be.  What we looked at today suggested mid 30s for the weekend.  We'll see if that ends up being right or wrong.  

The system that brings us rain Wednesday will move to our south Wednesday night and that will usher in colder air.  There will probably be a 6 to 8 hour period Wednesday night where we could see accumulating snow.  There could be a few inches. Be careful of the amount of precipitation (or qpf) the models are printing out Wednesday night.  It may not end up being the typical 10:1 ratio (10" of snow for 1" of liquid)

After that there should be some lake effect around starting later Thursday/Thursday night.  I do think there will be some sun over the weekend (notice the sun icon poking through on our 7 day forrecast) but given the cold air aloft we had to respect the idea of at least a few lake effect flurries Saturday and Sunday. Unless the air gets colder than we are thinking right now I can't see anything too significant over the weekend.  

Finally, Tom, my next blog will address the question about seasonal snow average.

Jim
March 17, 2008 8:34 PM
 

billbert said:

Ilove spurts
March 17, 2008 9:09 PM
 

Kevin said:

Yes, Sandy.  I defend people.  Unlike you, I want to school, learned a profession and take pride in my job.  I do not search weather blogs all day long while sitting on my rather ample behind and eating cookies and cream.  
March 18, 2008 12:04 PM
 

Kerry said:

Sandy- you are not very smart are you?  As a woman, I am embarrassed.  
March 18, 2008 12:06 PM
 

sandy said:

Hey Kevin ,Take some of that grease from your burgers and spread it out on the road to melt the snow.Kerry go out in your driveway if you have one and plop your big butt down and push all the snow out of the way.
March 18, 2008 4:45 PM
 

chris said:

Kevin , Did you mean you went to school or wanted to go to school? I hope i will never need you to defend me.
March 19, 2008 3:25 PM
 

Sandy said:

Kevin, hows is MacDonalds?  Do you cooked burgers?  Go fri me some french frys.    
March 20, 2008 9:59 PM
New Comments to this post are disabled

This Blog

Post Calendar

<March 2008>
SuMoTuWeThFrSa
2425262728291
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
303112345

Syndication

Inergize Digital Media This site powered by Inergize Digital Media. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of this station.