The MM5 places snow on the northwest side of a line extending from approx Cortland to Glens Falls and rain southeast of that line during most of Sat. However the model indicates rain for the Mohawk Valley westward to the Syracuse area. This model run was valid 06UTC 7 March. During Sat evening the line pivots counterclockwise with the rain changing to snow everwhere west of Amsterdam early Sunday morning.

It sounds like this is going to be a storm of long duration....tonight through Sunday Morn.  The NWS says the Lyons area could have a foot or more of snow by Sunday morning.  Given the fact that that's  over 36 hours, that really isn't a lot of snow.  A foot of snow over a 12 hour period is one thing, but over a day and a half is nothing we can't handle.  This will be a cake walk for our friends in the Tug Hill region who saw snow rates of 4, 5 , 6 inches an hour during those big lake effect events this winter.  And, keep in mind, no matter how much snow falls, it IS March and in a few days, it could be well into the 40's.  No matter what, I'm quite confident we broke the back of winter.

One would expect, given what we have seen this winter, for this to be a rain event.  This one looks a wee bit different however.  About time.  In Bowling Green, KY they are calling this the storm of the decade.  They are supposed to get 4-6 inches of snow in March.  That is amazing.  We shall see.  Too bad it is over the weekend however, for the kids sake.  They just have not had any breaks this year.  Poor kids :)

Dave - At this point, where is the lake effect going to set up and where do you see it moving before high pressure builds in.  It looks like after the storm, high pressure builds in w/ allot of sun for early next week.

Thanks

I'm awaiting the 12 UTC run of the MM5.  The 06 UTC run cranked out 18 - 24" for western NY State. A respected poster on one of the popular weather bulletin boards predicted 6 - 12" for Syracuse. Anyway, I have registered to run the Tipperary Hill Shamrock 4 mi run so the weather should make it very interesting as well as challenging.  

Dave,
The NWS says at least 3-5 inches of snow today/tonight & another 3-5 tomorrow. I was wondering what you thought we'd get. It always seems to me that you guys can more accurately forecast this kind of storm than the NWS can.
:o)

Looks like more gas for the snowblower is in order.  

Look on the bright side guys...I saw a small flock of geese this morning on my way into work!!

Dave.. What do you think the thruway from Syracuse to Utica will be like on Saturday? Wet road or icy, snowy mess?

I just do not see the cold air support for this event as a Winter storm in the Syracuse area.

Dave,
How about the finger lakes area (Geneva, Phelps). Do you see any differences in the outlook than Syracuse or Rochester, since we are alittle farther south. Everyone is calling for more snow the farther west you go. Sometimes, since we are in the "middle" of the two cities it is hard to determine which forecast is more accurate. And in this case the forecasts are different. AS ALWAYS thank you for your hard work. I hope all of you guys have vacations planned, you have earned them.

Rich - me neither. I bet mostly a sloppy cold rain.

The 12 UTC MM5 run is available and displays a warmer solution and reduced heavy snowfall for western NY.

9:43 AM Friday - Bye, bye sun.  Anyway, clouds are thickening in a hurry.  Leading edge to the precipitation is just getting to OH/PA border.  Still banking on a mid-afternoon arrival.  Temperatures should warm enough that we see rain at the start, with some wet snow mixing in.  I would think roads will be wet for the evening commute.

The thing I'm watching closely is the position of an arctic cold front.  You can just see the front to our west in this image: http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/sfc/states/ny.sfc.gif  What you need to key in on are the dewpoint temperatures.  Those are the green numbers to the lower left of the stations.  The dewpoints are in the mid and upper 20s to near 30 over NY.  On the other side of the front, dewpoints drop into the teens and winds are more northwesterly.  That's the cold air that's going to produce snow with this storm.  I don't think that front will move through until later tonight.

An area of moisture mentioned above is tied to an area of low pressure that will bring us a mix of rain and wet snow this evening.  I think for the most part, temperatures should stay near or a little above freezing, meaning a wet snow and minimal if any accumulation.  That initial slug of moisture will move to our east by midnight tonight.  Then there will be a lull.

In that lull, that arctic front mentioned above may sneak into CNY, causing our temperatures to drop into the upper 20s.  That's what we have in the forecast now.  This could lead to some spotty freezing rain tomorrow morning.  This will not be heavy.  The lull mentioned above should continue into Saturday morning.

Phase 2 of this storm will unfold tomorrow afternoon.  A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will move into central/eastern PA.  This will bring another large area of potentially heavy precipitation into CNY.  The question remains just how cold will we be????  I would think some freezing rain, sleet, snow, or perhaps even rain eventually changing over to snow.

The one nervous part of the forecast is tomorrow (Saturday) evening.  The low will move from PA to somewhere in western New England and rapidly strengthen.  When that happens, the atmosphere will cool, some more of that arctic air will get sucked down our way, and we'll snow.  I wouldn't think a lot of snow for us, but with falling temps, falling snow, things could be a little rough on the roads Saturday evening/night.  Keep that in mind if you're headed to the SU game.

One thing we are sure of is that it will turn cold for Sunday.  There will be some lake effect snow behind it.  Honestly I haven't looked at much in that regards, but I don't see anything super significant.  It is March, and any sun we can get out will tend to disrupt the lake effect circulations.

The new NAM is coming in.  I'm off to check that out.  Watch that arctic front.  Toronto to Buf to Cleveland is where the big snows will be.

Whew, this is long!

Dave

Great job Dave as always!

Dave how did the new NAM look?  I live in Liverpool, all done and said what would your best estimate be for snow by Sundat morning?

Thanks,

Mike

After looking at all the data this morning I'm going to forecast 12" for the Syracuse area by Sunday morning with very little ice, sleet, or freezing rain accumulation.

For once I planned something right!  I left Syracuse on Feb 25th ... since then it seems as if all it has done is snow and sleet.  Quite a bit of a difference from here in Laguna Beach, California.  Of course I have to return in a few days and can only hope that the worst will be over by then.

I would guess 6 inches if we're lucky.  Temps haven't been favorable lately for a heavy snowfall.  I guess we'll know by tomorrow night/Sunday!

The storm starting earlier.
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/community/2008/rad307anim.gif

Some cool pictures of the radar.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/community/2008/rp307a.png

Heres The Snow Map Hype From AccuWx!
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0

Looking to drive up to Ogdensburg Sat Morning. What are we looking for in the North Country?

I just can't see it.  How in the world would anyone even expect this to be snow.  Makes no sense to me.  Rain, rain, rain.....same old story all winter.

NO BREAKS FROM SCHOOL?.....DARN KIDS ARE OUT OF SCHOOL MORE THAN THERE IN SCHOOL THESE DAYS. EVERY TIME YA TURN AROUND THERE ON VACACTION FOR SOME DARN THING! WISH WE HAD ALL THIS TIME OFF WHEN I WAS IN SCHOOL...HOLY CRAP!!! NO BREAKS...YA RIGHT

I meant breaks due to weather.  Yea, I agree, they get way too much time off school scheduled.  

Wow!  I've been checking every possible weather source and each one has a different thought on this weekend's storm.  Even in the same market (ie Rochester tv stations) they all are saying something different.  Channel 10 says 4 to 6 inches tonight with heavy snow developing tomorrow afternoon.  Your sister station in Rochester, channel 13 says 2 to 5 inches tonight and just another 2 to 4 tomorrow.  
Like I said last a while ago, it sure will be nice when all we hear is "Hot and Humid"
Good luck on this storm, guys.

I know that you guys said that the precipitation should wind down by midnight.  But I'm looking at the radar loop right now, and it's solid for hundreds of miles!  Is the precip going to move from southwest to northeast, or will it shift direction?

Temps have dropped 4 degrees in last hour. Look out.

We have snow here in Weedsport moderate 4:30PM 35 degrees ,

We crossed the rain/snow line here in Liverpool at about 4:40

It's been a moderate snow in Lyons now for almost an hour.  It's a heavy, wet snow.  Ground is already covered.  Temp is 33 degrees. (4:50 p.m.)

heavy, wet snow in Jordan, NY 4:54

Back and Forth Rain - Wet Snow - Rain - Wet Snow for about half an hour now in the Fremont area.

So, where are Dave and Jim.  There hasn't been an update in a while.  Here in Rome just rain at 5:21.  I wonder how this will all pan out.....

Snowing steady here in Auburn....

beckygool, it is snowing in Mexico and Scriba. No rain at 6:13pm, been snowing since 4:20pm. Let it snow!

Don't worry, this won't amount to anything.  All hype !

Big fat flakes here in Cicero since about 5.  Haven't looked at much model data, but the back edge of "phase 1" is approaching Pittsburgh.  I would think that will taper off after midnight, if not a little before.

The strip of precip from just near us down through the Midwest is along the arctic cold front.  Again, that's going to be the thing we watch through tonight and into tomorrow.

Checking out the bigger radar view, there's a whole lotta nothing to our SW.  That's the lull I talked about.  

Dave

Rain, my foot!  It's been snowing heavily here since I got home around 5 in the Fabius Pompey area.  The ground is covered.  If you think it's all hype and won't amount to anything, you need to drive out to the hills south of Syracuse.  Well, maybe you shouldn't because the roads are going to be nasty soon!  Rain, shmain!  :)

I hear ya, Kathy! I just finished shoveling all this "rain" out of my driveway. I wish it was just rain. lol.

snow on onondaga hill slushy inch  just got called into  work in syr. two minutes away for a key problem. nothing sticking there, unbelievable, must  be the rise in elevation.my truck said 33 in syr.

Kathy, UpstateNY06....wet snow continues here in Cicero.  I just re-read my post from this morning and while I downplayed the accumulations for most areas, I did forget to mention higher elevations, being a little cooler, would see some accumulation.  Sandy's post illustrates just how little an elevation rise we need to get the snow to "stick"  Sorry 'bout that.

Back edge on radar is coming at us fast.  

Dave

Hey MM what are you worried about?  School's out!!!  How's the ski forcast?

Hi Phil, no skiing this weekend....

I have seen my share of snow over the years and let me say "Those are the biggest snow flakes I have ever seen"  They were the size of sand dollars.  

Dave--

You shouldn't have to apologize.

doc

Ryan, I was thinking the same thing about how BIG those snowflakes were.  

It looks like you guys called it right about snow to the west.  Buffalo is showing 5.2 inches and that was only as of 5 pm.  Surprisingly it's also a date record for them.

Rain my left foot....live in Solvay and snow has covered the driveway AND the roads...my guess is that since the Storm Team predicted a mixed bag of stuff, we'll get all snow :)   just kidding Dave, Dave and Jim...you guys do the best job here in CNY.
Dave, what would happen if the low that deepens tomorrow and moves a bit more east than is predicted? Would that mean more in the way of snow?

Rats MM.  Got Milk?

9:45 PM Update....The back edge of this first round of precipitation is steadily moving north through Pennsylvania and should reach us here in central New York close to midnight. However, one thing that has happened in the last hour or so is that rain has started mix in areas where it was just snow during the evening commute (including Syracuse).  We think that the best lift in the atmosphere is moving to our north.  That was what cooled the atmosphere enough for those big snowflakes earlier.  

Our main storm is down near Atlanta this evening and the new NAM model says itwill really crank up over the next 24 hours taking a track up through eastern PA and then Albany tomorrow evening. That track is about the same as the earlier models. For those waiting for the next round of accumulating snow in Syracuse it still looks like you will have to wait until tomorrow evening once the cold air moves in. Watch for the wind to pick up quite a bit as well.  Right now we are forecasting 20-25 mph winds Saturday night.

A few observations of some of the NWS warnings from this storm: parts of Kentucky and Ohio are under Blizzard Warnings. Over parts of Louisiana and Mississippii there are Heavy Snow Warnings;they could get 2" of snow.

Jim

Dave/Jim - I see there is going to be lake effect Sat night into Sunday Morning.  ou guys have forecasted the winds out of the northwest but the wind direction for most of Sat night into Sun is westnorthwest.  That would put the lake effect north of route 31.  Also i see the wind will then shift into the west towards sunrise.  Does this mean were clear of snow from Syracuse points west?  Also the Nam shows a weak spray of the south east lake around areas well north of syracuse for a short time.  What does it look like for Accumulation Snow.  It looks like you guys have a good beat on this storm. So far, the forecast is right on.

At 8:15 am, Lyons has sleet falling.  There was a lull in the precipitation earlier this morning but it has picked up again.  We picked up about 3 or 4 inches of snow overnight.  Temp is right at 32 degrees as of this writing.

At 10:30 am, The precip has ended in Lyons.  Winds seem to be picking up a tad.  Temp is 30.

Is there any reason why no one else is blogging today about the storm?  I've checked back here all day and there's nothing.  I'm not the only weather geek still alive, am I?
By the way, at noontime, 31 degrees with just cloudy conditions and a stiff breeze in Lyons.

Dark, Gloomy and off and on cold drizzle with a heavy downpour of rain every now and then here in the Fremont area Sal.  

If the snow lovers are like I am then they be depressed that we're missing out on what Buffalo and Rochester are getting right now :(

toth

i like to watch the weather and the loop.  no sal,  your not the only weather geek out there. lol

also thanks for all you do channel 9.  you are great at what you do,always!!!

Hey Sal, I promise you, you're not the only "geek" on the board.  Steady rain here in Cicero.  The temps has been running around 34.  Just had a heavier downpour almost reminiscent of a summer shower come through here.  Anything that did have an icicle on it this morning has melted away, so I'm thankful for that.  Again, overall impact during the day, as expected, isn't all that great.  Watch out after sunset, when the main low starts to deepen and move just to our east.  Cold air will get yanked in here, and with falling temps and falling snow, things could get icy.  I'm still not expecting much snow accumulation, perhaps 1-3 or 2-4"  

The lake effect will not be anything impressive.  Mean winds look to be westerly, which would favor areas north of Syracuse.  The cold air coming in is quite shallow, so the clouds won't be able to build very high, limiting snow production.  A few inches possible north of Syracuse tomorrow, but nothing serious.  Lots of cold and wind though in the cards for tomorrow.

12:38, just had thunder and lightning in Cicero!

-Dave

A flash of lightning and some thunder in Fremont now.

Hi Dave:
FYI, Just heard thunder here in North Bay (12:44 p.m.)
As much as I'd like some more snow -- does this mean spring is around the corner?!

Thank goodness you guys are STILL out there!  i was getting worried.  heavy rain now falling here in Lyons at 12:45.  No thunder though, at least not yet.  I just came in from scrapping the ice off my driveway.  temp now is 33.  As has been the case so many times...a degree or two difference has meant the difference between rain and snow.  here in Lyons, we are so close.
Does anyone know where the rain/snow line is in the state?  It must be west of Lyons but not sure how far.  Any insight?

Thundering here in Lpool.  Its falling as freezing rain but melting when it hits the ground.

Thunder and lightning as well here in Northern Cicero a couple of minutes ago.

Looking at the models.  It looks like the low passes just east of ny.  The snow seems to be way further west than anticipated and the backlash seems to be weak.  When this wet precip turns over to snow it doesnt look like its going to snow long, maybe a few hours at best and it looks light.  Why does the forecast say heavy snow 3-6?  Then the forecast for lake effect is very vague.  

Ryan,  the forecast we have is 2-5" tonight.  We have the "heavy" wording in there to imply that there could be some bursts of heavier snow that come through our area tonight.  When the low explosively deepens, as it is expected to do tonight, we sometimes see isolated pockets of heavier snow.

I talked about the lake effect in my earlier post.  It's vague because it's not going to be significant.

Dave

2:00... It's been POURING for the past hour in Minoa, with some lightning. Lots of ponding water and sheet flow due to the frozen ground. There is no flood watch or warning for Onondaga/Madison counties, but I'll be surprised if they're not over bankfull tonight.

As was advertised, radar is showing some drier air moving into the region.  Looks dry for several miles down south so we should stop some of this precip for a few hours.  So Dave, is the next batch of precip the snow you you've been talking about that will add up to 2 to 5 inches?

Dave, can you please let us know what is going on in the Geneva, Phelps area. NWS has anywhere from 5" to 11" (combining the two forecast). If this is accurate it is very different than your central ny forecast. Can you please shed some light on this.   P.S. I'm sure Sal  would be interested in this living in Lyons.  Thanks.

The upper low is now spinning over Ohio and that will move over us from 7 to 1 AM.  That's a 6 hour period, so I would think the 2-5", maybe 3-6" should do it with that.  The heaviest snow will be NW of the upper low center track, but as I mentioned, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few heavier bursts here, but I just can't see us getting out of the range I mentioned.  Given the relative dry slot that's moved into much of the western half of NY, this should be the case for Geneva/Phelps area as well.

Dave

Hey, Dave - No need to apologize!  My rain, shmain comment last night was not directed at you.   I was referring to Beckygool who said, rain, rain, rain!  Here it was snow, snow, snow last night. The roads were slushy and slippery last night and this morning.  We've been getting freezing rain and just plain, cold rain all day today and the winds are starting to pick up, which is kind of good because it's shaking the heavy snow off of the trees.   Some of my evergreen branches were really close to the ground from last night's snow.  Sal, you have lots of company - we're all weather geeks!  :)

Some wet snow, but overall a bit too warm, as I suspected.  

You know Dave, I think a study on Liquid Water Content in snowfall would be a valuable tool and a great research project  We always talk about snow in terms of inches but really neglect physical water content in it.  It is both water content and snow depth that determines how difficult clearing snow will be as well as driving in it, and the load associated with it on rooftops, etc..  The DOT could adjust their response to a snow event if we captured and forecasted water content.  How about the "Longley Scale" for LWC - sort of like the fujita scale for tornado speeds (etc..) - so when we predict snow we'd say 5 inches of snow with a Longley of "A" or something like that....  Little met humor (very little) but still something we should be talking about as meteorologists....

Can we readily retrieve water % content in snow events - maybe through the 850-1000mb thickness or something?

RICH

Things are getting colder here in Lyons.  Temp now 29 degrees.  Glad I got the slush off the driveway earlier so it didn't all freeze hard on the pavement.  Anything that falls here in Lyons now will certainly be the frozen type. Back to sleet at the moment. No more rain here for a while....at least until mid week when it warms back into the 40's.
Now, I hate to say anything now since we are still in the middle of THIS storm but our friends at ACCU weather are hinting that the northeast might be line for another storm next weekend.  I know you guys are busy with what will happen tonight, but are you seeing any signs that we might be going through this again in 7 days?  Imagine having to look out the window again to see snow, sleet, and slush?  And after tonight, we get to enjoy that extra hour of daylight at night to look at the snow.  hey, it allows us that extra time to get home from work and shovel snow STILL in the daylight!!!  Maybe I'm nuts, but i think turning the clocks ahead this early is a bit much.  I was just starting to enjoy the daylight at 6:30 in the morn.  But who am I?
Keep up the good work guys.  I always rely on you first to plan my day or days when it comes to the weather.  

5:38 pm, we have freezing rain in Mexico was coming down in buckets a bit ago.  The lights are flickering, I'm assuming due to the wet snow and now the freezing rain on the lines.

34 DEGREES IN CENTRAL SQUARE. NO THUNDER AND LIGHTNING THOUGH. HAD A HEAVY DOWNPOUR ABOUT 1/2 HOUR AGO BUT NOW BACK TO LIGHT RAIN. 2 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE. SEEMS TO BE THE FALLBACK IN TEMPS. FORCASTED.

Boy, a lot of wetness out there, we've got to be concerned about a flash freeze this evening once our low pressure area slides to our east, and that low 20 temperatures surge east.  Be careful out there tonight if you have to travel.

As for Sal's comment on next weekend.  I have seen some indication of something trying to come at us from the south.  The stalwart as of late, the Euro, has not shown this, which tells me the GFS is up to it's tricks again of having a storm one run and then not the next.  The Canadian did show something on I think it was this past Thursday's run for next weekend, but hasn't shown anything since.  So, at this point, I wouldn't get too nervous yet for a St. Patty's storm.

I will say this.  The NAO/AO are both forecast to remain negative, in fact the most negative we've seen all winter.  The PNA is also forecast to go negative.  This will tend to keep the jet suppressed across the Northeast...meaning cooler than normal weather overall.  The negative PNA will likely keep fast flow coming in off the Pacific  and an active storm track.  It's possible with the negative NAO/AO, something coming at us could get wound up along the coast.  We shall see.

Let's get this cold out of here tomorrow.  Hopefully we can exhaust the arctic air tomorrow/Monday.

Don't forget the clocks tonight.  Also the batteries in the smoke detectors.

3:40 to go.  Can SU hang on?  They're up 13.

-Dave

We just had a flash of lightning and a clap of thunder that almost knocked me out of my chair.  Had I not known better, i would have thought it was the middle of the summer and a hot humid night.  Go figure!
And thanks Dave for the insight into the possibility of next weekend's storm.  March sure can be a weird month.  Let's see just today we had snow, sleet, freezing ran, rain, wind and now thunder and lightning.  Like the old saying goes, if you don't like the weather in Upstate New York, just wait a minute, it'll change!

Right on schedule here in Canandaigua, freezing rain has changed to snow and winds have backed to the NW, although they are still light. Looks like the band of heavy snow is on our doorstep. Not much ice here (.1 at best) but radio was saying they had 3/4 inch in Waterloo, which qualifies as an ice storm, with the expected tree & power line problems. Anyone over in Seneca county confirm this?

Thunder, lightning, and moderate sleet here in Tully temp 32F

One more thing.  Some places still have quite a bit of ice and wet snow on the trees from the past 24 hours.  When the winds pick up, there will likely be additional power outages.  Just a heads up there.  I'm down to 32.5 here in Cicero, so we're probably within an hour now of things icing up.

Have a good evening.  I'll check in tomorrow.

Dave

It is currently lightening, thunder and pouring sleet here in Skaneateles.  Amazing weather.  

Lighting & thunder in Auburn! Was freezing rain...now snow...Have a scanner on...non-stop calls of wires, trees, branches down all over Cayuga County. WOW.

WOW this weather is crazy. Its been raining/freezing rain here all day and the tree's are about ready to start falling i think so much snow and ice on them. Im in Hannibal and i cant believe what it looks like here. Crazy weather thats for sure.

BTW its 7:07pm and its currently thundering and lightning like crazy here its kinda nasty out there. WOW.

Actually, even with the "mix of everything" during this storm, CNY has been lucky. Huge flood problems all over eastern NY and downstate, blizzard conditions with heavy snow all day in Buffalo & western NY. I'll take a little sleet and 6 inches of snow any day.

thunderstorm in Auburn....is that ridiculous with 28 degrees or what...lol

Volunteer firefighter here.. Oswego County is SWAPPED with calls. I think every department has a call at the moment. Too bad I have to work in an hour. Freezing rain and sleet right now.

Dave,  Thank you for the update on the Geneva area. And, as always, thanks for your hard work.
Sal,  We live near thruway exit 42, and ,yes the lightning was something else this evening.

Lighting in Phoenix, NY around 7:35

Let me just tell you guys.. Only in NY does it Rain, freezing rain, sleet, thunder and lighting, and snow in the same hour. Holy crap.

All we need now is the wind to become calm......and then......It will be the War Of The Worlds.   So if the ground comes a rockin.....Well you all know the rest.

rescue141, I know! LOL !!

The power went out here like 10 times in a row for about 30 seconds each time between 8 and 10. Lightning, snow, ice, the works... rescue141x is right !!

Well its about 4:15 am just got home with about 6-7 inches and still falling very heavy.  Not too much ice here, thankfully.  Well this is finally winter and im loving it.  Dave, how much lake effect are you predicting for the cicero area tomarrow(sunday) throught the day.  Lots of travel plans.  Thanks, drive safe everyone!!

Well its about 4:15 am just got home with about 6-7 inches and still falling very heavy.  Not too much ice here, thankfully.  Well this is finally winter and im loving it.  Dave, how much lake effect are you predicting for the cicero area tomarrow(sunday) throught the day.  Lots of travel plans.  Thanks, drive safe everyone!!

About 6 or 7 inches of snow in my driveway here in Lyons.  It's hard to tell cause of all the blowing and drifting.  It looks like the sun might be shining here soon.  I see lots of clear sky with some dark clouds to the north and east.  I'm thinking that must be good 'ol lake effect clouds.  Temp is 18 at 7:30am.  
Hope everyone survived this go-around and we have a few days of tranquil weather.

Ryan is right.  This is the first decent winter weather all winter!  I love this stuff.  We lost power last night for about 4 hours-5 hours.   It was fun but I couldn't check the weather :)

Here in West Monroe, we are getting Lake Effect snow, It has been snowing about an hour so far. it is 9 am now, last night it was weird pouring rain, thunder & lightening, freezing rain, then snow. couldn't ask for any more of a mixed bag. Now the good ole lake effect. Glad it is Sunday!

Any snow reports from Redfield, Osceola, Camden, Mexico etc on this blustery Sunday morning?

Thanks

Dave- You said the lake effect will be any thing but impressive or significant. Well, There is a heavy band around clay area right now.  I just left Lpool and picked up a quick 2 inches.  In the band there is zero visibility and its Extremely Dangerous.  If that band persists w/wnw there will easily be 6-10 inches of lake effect.  I would say that is impressive for this neck of the woods not to mention the snow drifts and wind.  I really wish you guys went into more detail about this am snow.  It was a very dangerous drive this morning and I wish I knew the severity of the quick hitting lake effect band that seems to still by snowing hard in N.Onondaga.  Impressive? Yes.  Dangerous? Yes.  Significant? Yes.  :(~

I agree that this lake effect episode is more significant than advertised but it isn't my call. The radar had been active east of and ESE of L. Ontario since shortly after midnight when I first checked.  I saw that Phoenix reported 12.5" early this morning but that is the only report I could find.

Jan

WOW,  we're getting hit up here.  Got about 8-10 inches last night and still coming down at 10:50am. We lost power about 10 times all night.  On and off.  So far so good this morning.  We lost power for the last time at 6am this morning.  I keep nc9 on all day to see when the end is near.  It's gonna be a big day.  Thanks storm team for all you do.  

Back in West Monroe, which I am about a mile from Parish line, still coming down like crazy it is 11 am. went out to get paper and over 12", cleaned my car off so I have less to clean on Monday!!  Visibility is poor at this time. Will be staying in to watch NASCAR!!

10" in McConnellsville, still snowing hard. Similar in Camden (6 miles to my north), 3-4" in Sylvan Beach. Rt. 13 is in bad shape with blowing and drifting, poor visibility

Honestly, am a little surprised this thing is staying as well organized.  I had about 10-11 inches when I snowblowed this morning at 8, and there's probably another inch or two since then.

Yes the air is cold, but in the big picture things should be drying out some.  I would think some weakening is likely this afternoon.  At least the snow is fluffy.  It looks like skies are brightening outside, so perhaps the March sun will do it's thing and break this up.

Satellite pictures do show a well organized band stretching the whole length of Lake Ontario, with some added moisture contribution from the upper lakes.  The air should start drying out as the low moves farther away from us.  Winds, according to Mark Chapin, should stay up through the day, so blowing snow will be a problem.

I guess it's pretty to look at if you don't have to go out.  Kinda weird to have all this snow and the sump pump going off with all of yesterday's rain.

Dave

Woke up at 8 a.m. to about 8 inches of snow.
I would say we've gotten another 3 or so since then.

DAVE: Our sump pump in our crawl space was on full force yesterday. ACtually, pretty much since the mid-week rain (Wednesday?) its been going like crazy.

LET IT SNOW!!!

Also very poor visibility. Wind is making a pretty rough go of things here too. Many windows on our house have a snow 'blind' on them. We're lakefront so we're getting a direct it.....

LET IT SNOW!!!

Let It Snow so pur houses and yards flood over the next week.  We will see what your saying then!

We got nothing here as usual! Mabey 2 inches of snow, a little rain last night and some wind. 10 miles around us and everyone is saying 8-12 inches, I just don't see it any where near here or the city.

Just wanted to say today had to be one of the most beautiful winter days we had this season here in Lyons.  We were the fortunate ones who saw sunshine all day long and with all the ice and snow on the trees, it was breathtaking.  The countryside was gorgeous!!! As i said earlier this week, Mother Nature can sometimes be so beautiful and at other times so horrific.  Today was an example of the  former.  For those of you who enjoyed the sunshine in other parts of the region, I hope you had a chance to take a break from the shoveling and ice scraping and salt spreading to just take a step back and enjoy the beauty of what Mother Nature threw at us.  So often we get caught up in all the tasks that we need to get done following a storm such as yesterday's, that we fail to take the time to see the beauty of it all.  Today was certainly a day to stop and smell the roses....or in this case, stop and see the magical pictures Mother nature painted for us.  There were many "Kodak moments" to be had.

We had sun and lots of wind but no snow during the day today in F/P.  Roads were icy and snow covered from the couple of inches that fell last night.  It was nice to have so much daylight this evening!  Not sure I want to get up in the dark tomorrow, though.  As much as I love the snow, I'm looking forward to hearing the peepers soon!  I remember hearing them in the middle of March last year.  Maybe we should start a "who hears the peepers first" contest this year!  :)

One more thing - If you haven't seen it already, go out and check out the moon in the western sky.   It's a beautiful sliver at 7:41 PM!

Sorry Kathy. Some of us are still dealing with heavy lake effect snow that was never talked about.  Yet there are pages and pages of chit chat about the weekend storm.  The storm dropped 3 inches.  The lake effect has dropped 15 inches already.  Where's the chit chat about that!  

Oops.  Sorry, I forgot that you guys north of Syracuse are still getting lake effect snow!

It's funny to see people complaining about lake effect snow in snow country, it's like somebody moving to tornado valley and then being surprised and angry that they had a tornado come thru and wreck their town. If you stand on the train tracks, a trian will surely run you over, if you don't want to get hit by the train, then move off the tracks.

Dave, do you think this weekend may be it for potential snowstorms? I know this isnt a question that can be answered with a definite yes or no, just asking for your opinion

Between Phoenix and Fulton within about an hour it went from pouring down rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to snow, back to pouring freezing rain, back to snow, and I woke up to about 1 1/2 feet of snow!  We too lost power for a few seconds numerous times around 9:30 last evening, then it did it again around 4:00 AM.  Thank God it didn't stay out.  Then we lost it for a couple hours today.  Still can't believe how low the branches from the trees were hanging!  Sure was pretty to look at with the sun shining on them!

On saturday night there was thundersnow conditions here in Liverpool!

What's the latest on this coming weekend? Another nor'easter, or is this one going out to sea?

We were away for the weekend and came home Sunday to 18 inches of fluff in Brewerton. That was a fine welcome home! There was mostly freezing rain and sleet in Naples Friday and Saturday.

well, another "Storm" for CNY that didnt require all the hype and definitally didnt require a NWS issued Winter Storm Warning......

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