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Weather Discussion

Teske's Tidbits (3/6/08) The One About The Winter Forecast Revisited

Even though winter weather is holding on here in Central New York, part of our winter forecast is in the books.  When we make our winter forecast back in November we focus on our coldest 3 months, what is called “meteorological winter’ which is the months of December, January and February.  Here is how those months ended up in temperatures:

 

December                    -.7 Degrees

 

January                     +6.8 Degrees

 

February                      +1.2 Degrees

 

That averages out to about 3 degrees above normal.

 

When we come up with our snowfall forecasts we look at statistics that include every flake, not just what falls in December, January and February.  That part of the forecast is incomplete but we’ve passed the 100” mark and with more snow (along with rain, freezing rain and sleet) possible as we head into the weekend the seasonal average of 120” still looks like it may be in reach.

 

So those are the raw numbers for the weekend but I would be curious as to how you would characterize the winter so far.

 

One other note, as you all probably know by now, we head into Daylight Savings Time this weekend.  You move your clocks AHEAD one hour Saturday night which will mean daylight after 7 PM Sunday evening!  To me that’s kind of a double edge sword.  For years and years when we would ‘Spring Ahead” in early April it really signaled the beginning of Spring.  Snow was just about over for us and you could really enjoy the evening daylight with average high temperatures in the 50s.  This time of year you can still be cold and snowy so I can almost guarantee that over the next few weeks you are going be stuck inside looking out your window at 7 or 7:30 PM and while it is still light outside it will be snowing.

 

I didn’t mention lake effect on Y 94 over the last week so the Lake Effect Challenge remains at $28.25.  When winter winds down in a few weeks I’ll be writing a check to the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society to cover all the times I mentioned lake effect on the radio (at 25 cents a pop).

 

 

Published Thursday, March 06, 2008 11:52 AM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

mstupid3000 said:

I live in Fabius. About a week ago I was driving home looking at the spots of snow in the fields and thinking that it was odd we didn't have 8' wind blown snow banks along the roadside. Its interesting that we are on track for roughly average precipitation but it seems to me that much of it has been the slop variety. What's up with these winter storms all tracking to the west? In my opinion, on the whole, the climate seems to be changing.
March 6, 2008 11:06 AM
 

KW said:

I can't believe we've actually had that much snow!?  It doesn't seem like we've had that much in Skaneateles.
March 6, 2008 1:41 PM
 

MC said:

We probably haven't...snow is measured at hancock airport, which is in N. Syracuse, WHICH sees more snow from lake effect. Skan. probably had...65-70"
March 6, 2008 2:14 PM
 

KBC said:

I wish we would truly Spring ahead to sunshine and 70's!  LOL!

Although..I do love a good snow storm....bring it on!
March 6, 2008 2:58 PM
 

Tom said:

As for snow, never enough for me! But then I love the outdoors. In Montezuma, we had 55 in December, only 7 in Janurary and 17 in February. I only put 250 miles on the sled localy and most of that was last saturday.
March 6, 2008 3:22 PM
 

fiske said:

I've  always  loved  weather.  When  I  was  a  kid,  I  kept  a  weather  diary  and  my  favorite  weatherman  was  Bud  Heniger.  I  think  he  was  channel  3.
Back  then  the  weather  reports  seemed  a  lot  more  accurate.  I  used  to  write
everything  down  and  they were  right  most  of  the  time.  That  was  40  years  ago.
They  didn't  have  all  those  weather  models  back  then.  Sometimes,  I  think  they  rely  too  much  on  them  now.
Anyone  else  think  that.
March 7, 2008 12:44 AM
 

Joe said:

Well that was 40 years ago Fiske, alot has changed since then. Our enviorment has been put to the test and it's not holding up. Global warming has alot to due with it and yes I do agree that today's technology is over rated. Let's get back to the basics and more simplicity. So, yes I do agree with you.
March 7, 2008 12:34 PM
 

mstupid3000 said:

re joe & fiske: it seems (emphasis on seems) that way - models are less accurate and maybe its due to weather variables being altered by climate change. Maybe winter storm tracks based on data and patterns from the past combined with current ground data create more uncertainty for the 3 to 7 day forecast. What's the storm team think?.
March 8, 2008 9:29 AM
 

Jim Teske said:

Some good comments above....can't say whether climate change is having any impact on predictability of the weather by computer models.  I haven't seen any articles in weather journals that I read.

In defense of some of the models we use: they do give us detail that we didn't have 15, 10 or even 5 years ago.  I'm talking about mesoscale models.  I remember when I started forecasting lake effect here back in the mid '90s.  To figure where a lake band was going to be and where it was going to go we relied on raw data on forecast wind direction.  Most of the older computer models couldn't 'resovle' (ie see) a 5 or 10 mile wide band of snow.  The mesoscale models of today can see these features and show us in great detail these bands of lake effect.  When we first started using these models 4 or 5 years ago at Newschannel 9 we were amazed at how well they did and almost every time they outperformed our old fashion rule of thumbs.  Of course, we still look beyond the models and ask questions when forecasting lake effect snow. When you start to accept the models as the gospel truth your head down a slippery slope. We look at satellite pictures and radar images to make sure the model 'has it right'  Once and a while we'll even throw the mesoscale model out the window and go with our gut.  As I tell people forecasting is a constant learning process.  

Jim
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