Dave, Won't you be glad when you can just say it's going to be hazy, hot, and humid, with temps in the 90's?  Be patient.  It'll be here before we know it!

Good morning Dave.  Regardless of the negative comments that are posted here, please know that everyone who actually participates in this blog with weather related questions/concerns/insights really do appreciate the real purpose of this blogg.  It seems that people feel there is a open door in here to get feelings off there chest because of a prediction vs maybe just shouting at there tv.  This blogg doesnt need to exist.  People are abusing what this is really for.  I just wanted you to know as allot of people in here have told you, is that we do appreciate your above and beyond work in here.  By you coming on here and giving us your insight is very much appreciated.  It should also make these negative people realize that you are human and that weather is not always 100%.  I think its a great way for Dave L and Jim T to reach there viewers on a more personal level and believe me, its felt!!!!
Thank You.

Glad you guys are taking that consensus. There's a lot of hype (accuweather is the worst culprit in the world) for constant snowstorms - not a single one has panned out. Tendency is for storms to push west this year...rain and warm slop for us. Makes for a boring winter, but what can you do?

OK not really Favre but alot of people are thinking and talking about him today.
Now, the weather.  Down here in the finger lakes area (Geneva, Phelps)  you guys really nailed this one with your timecast and your forecast.  As your timecast showed, the rain/warmer air just reached the Geneva area in early AM. but a mix north.  And that is what happened. Wet sidewalks and pavement in Geneva over
night,  but a 1/4 to 3/8 of ice in Phelps. GOOD JOB
However, here we go again, 3 days from another big storm and you have rain in the picture when everybody else is all snow, with accuweather leading the way with up to a foot. Time will tell I guess. Either way thanks for all your hard work.

Now that we might be leaning toward rain, I can't wait to see the complainers complain about how we got more snow than they expected. Thank God it won't be a school day, so we won't have to worry about Dave telling us to (or not to) get a babysitter!

Great post, Ryan. I totally agree. This blogg/board needs a moderator!

Pretty icy in Auburn. Power went out for a bit. Now the wind is picking up.

Look forward to more info on the weekend storm.

well, here's to hoping one big storm before the snow season is gone....

all rain. hey i cant predict any worse than anyone else.

24 hr qpf ending 7 PM Saturday can be found here.  This is from the "pros" in DC. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

They put us near 1".  New Euro looks like a track up over NYC.  Perhaps a bit east of the earlier forecast.  

Still early to get too specific.  The trend seems to have a low somewhere near NYC sometime later Saturday, and for you snowhounds, that would put us in the sweet spot for heavy snow.

You know, whether we see heavy snow, heavy rain or both we need to keep a close eye on this one.  Heavy rain could bring flooding, and if it falls as snow, this has the potential to be the biggest non-lake effect snowfall this season.  It would be a wet heavy snowfall with temps around freezing.

-Dave

Dave, I hope you're right about the "sweet spot"...what I wouldn't give for one big snowstorm right now

6:45 PM update....just a few comments on Friday and Saturday.  While too early for specifics we are leaning toward rain at the start (maybe some set snow) Friday afternoon then a change to snow after daybreak Saturday.  As Dave mentioned above there is just no cold air preceeding the storm.  We are forecasting upper 30s on Friday and one of our computer models says we could get into the mid 40s! The 12z GFS came in and said rain Friday night.  A quick look at the 18z GFS showed the lower atmosphere (5,000 feet and lower) even warmer Friday night than 12z GFS was indicating.  Given the way the winter storm track has gone this year the warmer trend in the models the past day or two is not too surprising. That's why we stuck with the possibility of rain for Friday and Saturday in our forecasts earlier in the week.

Again, still too early for specifics (ie snow totals).  We'll fine tune the storm track over the next day or so.

Jim

thanks jim, keep the discussion  going .no one else is keeping us updated as much as you are.I have to  schedule people to work on fri or sat to take care of snow removal all weekend. sorry of being critical of you in the past.you are doing a fine job.

Guys - you're the only ones providing a meaningful weather analysis in all of upstate NY.  I'm from Syracuse but am in Buffalo at the moment, and there is nothing online that approaches the level of detailed analysis that you provide.

THANKS.

My question is to Sixx Am and all of the others wishing for a big snow.  Why? With our weather pattern, it will all be melted within 3-5  days.  Mid 40's next week with rain.  I cann see if we were still in the heart of winter but were not.  Spring is just weeks away.  Lets welcome it with open arms.  Ill tell you what. Whatever falls, I'll have all my snow from my yard shipped to your house so you can play in it for a few days before it all liquifies.

To the wx pros.  Regardless of what the models show, lets just keep reminding ourselves of what the winter has been like. Even if this changes to snow on Sat, the reality of us seeing something measurable seems to always never happen.  3-6 inches seems like our zone in these storms. To start posting totals like 6-12 or 12-18 even of the liquid precip models are telling us that, lets just step back and remind ourselves that its NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Anyone here ever use accuweather? I have heard some mixed opinions on them....they are calling for an all snow event for us....sounds too good to be true

Dave  E  just  said  he  thinks  we  are  going  to  get  all  rain.
Tom  Hauf  accuweather  just  said  a  snow  event  six  inches  plus,
no  mention  of  rain.
Earlier, Dave  L  said  it  could  be  a  snow  event.
I  guess  we'll  just  have  to  look  out  our  windows  on  Fri.  night

I'm sure the talk of the day will be the pending storm coming up the east coast tomorrow through the weekend.  ACCU weather is really hyping it up.  Henry Margusity is AccuWeather.com's Sr. Meteorologist and Severe Weather Expert.  His latest blog there is calling it the blizzard of 2008.  the kind of storm, he says that will close roads for a couple of days.  he says the track of the storm puts western NY in the bullseye.
Okay guys at channel 9...give us your thoughts.  Thanks.  We'll be watching.

Has Carol Yerdon from Redfield provided any seasonal snow stats for the 2007/8 season?  I was wondering how the Tug compares to the Keweenaw area this winter.

Thank you.

hey sal i just looked on accu myself he always hypes up stuff but you never now there snow map shows us not getting very much but that my be an old one that would be cool tho to see an all out blizzard

Allright guys.  Lets see some snow maps.  Were 24 hours out.  We need to start advising people of the snow/rain chances.  Regardless of the track there should be some ideas on what were looking at.  

Here is NOAA forecast at this time.

Friday: Rain and snow likely after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday Night: Periods of snow. Low around 28. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: Periods of snow. High near 33. North wind between 14 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 25.

Accuweather is crap. Certain mets on there hype up everything to be a major snowstorm. It's fun to look at for entertainment value only.

Here is Accu's forecast.

Friday, Mar 7
High: 38°F RealFeel®: 33°F
Considerable cloudiness with 1-3 inches of snow becoming mixed with rain at times in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Low: 31°F RealFeel®: 17°F
Rain, freezing on surfaces.
Saturday, Mar 8
Day
High: 37°F RealFeel®: 24°F
Windy with rain
Saturday Night
Low: 18°F RealFeel®: -4°F
Windy and cold with snow; sleet and freezing rain mixed in early

Would be nice to have at least one HUGE Nor'easter this season.

Why Bobber.  It will melt by midweek next week.  We have already had like 4 Noreasters this year.  I think thats a record for the east coast.  I find it funny that the same people who wish for this awful weather always seem to be the idiots who get in car accidents or have property damage of some sort.  Maybe when you get some flooding in your house this spring, ill chime on and say it would be nice for some huge rain storm!!!!  This is going to be a dangerous storm for the northeast no matter where you live.

Lucas... lighten up. I don't think anybody is minimizing the dangers of any storm. All rain right now could be a huge issue too. WHere did you get your stats about the snow lovers causing the accidents? Pretty interesting info...NOT!
Here's the deal... Spring will noy be here for a few weeks no matter what you want. Several areas haven't had the snow that we expect each year. Since we live where we do, several people have come to enjoy the winter and the snow it brings. Let us enjoy the snow if only for a few days until it melts. It's rather rediculous to get mad at people for wanting snow, when Mother Nature will do what she is going to do no matter what we want.
LET IT SNOW!!

Lucas - Why you may ask?  Simple....I'm a weather buff!!  I love all kinds of weather.  Plain and simple.  I am offended by your assumption that just becasue I like this kind of weather that I am an "idiot" who may get into a car accident.  I have lived in CNY all my life and have learned to deal with what mother nature throws at us.

Alright, the chatter has been hot and heavy regarding this storm.  Yes it will be big.  Yes, it will bring lots of "stuff"  Figuring out what the stuff will be is the hard part.  I am a little nervous given the rapid development of this storm Friday into Saturday and all the moisture that this storm will have with it.

I've looked at a lot of stuff this morning, from models to ensemble runs, and they all seem to agree on the low moving from the Gulf Coast today to somewhere in northern VA by Saturday morning.  Then the tracks tend to fan out a bit from an alleyway between BGM to NYC by 7 PM Saturday.  That will keep the rain/snow line flirting with us until Saturday.  The new 12Z NAM has the low deeper and slower, down near PHL at 7 PM Saturday.

I think with this upper low cutting off or closing off so far to the west, we just can't get into the cold air until later Saturday.  We may see an initial shot of wet snow later Friday or Friday night (probably 1 to 3 with that, if that) then a changeover or at the very least some rain mixing in.

Saturday will have a rainy start, with things getting exciting meteorologically Saturday evening/Saturday night.  As the storm gets strong and pressures drop Saturday night just to our east, the atmosphere over us will cool and any rain will have to change to snow.  How much moisture is left over behind when this occurs.  I don't know right now.  Surely, nothing significant for us.

Here's an interesting twist.  We could end up with very little precipitation Saturday here.  We'd have the heavy snow over western NY, just NW of the upper lows.  And a boatload of precip along the coastal front from NYC, southward into eastern VA.  There will likely be a mega severe weather outbreak along the coastal plain Saturday in the warm air.  In between would be us.  Wouldn't that be something?  Something to keep an eye on as we get closer.

So, unless I see dramatic changes in the track of this low, we are not going to get a major snowstorm.  That appears headed to Toronto/BUF area Saturday.  Nonetheless, this is going to be interesting to watch, and by no means is that forecast a certainty.  That's how I see it at 9:40 this Thursday morning.

-Dave

Good call Dave. It would be nice if we're not going to get snow to at least be in a dry slot so we don't flood and blow out all the rivers. Trout season starts soon!

Accuweather is usually good for a laugh. Right now for this storm they have one guy calling for up to 2 feet of snow, while their "official" forecast for CNY calls for 7 inches of snow plus .7 inch of ICE. Remember, these are the guys who want you to pay big bucks for their "pro" service so you can get hourly forecasts 2 weeks out!

heres an acxcurate forecast ; no snow maybe 1 nch in the higher elevations look at the nation forecast and the map shows this bifg snow system literaally broken up to nothing; tellchannel 9 that ski season is over

accu weather guy henery has us in the ice area bf snow wow this is getting intereseting

Hey Dave-
I've heard that winter storm watches are going up for this area from tomorrow AM through Sunday AM.  Could ya shed a little light on this - are we gonna gt snow or is it gonna be another wintry mess?

Sorry, I mis-read the statements. It's tomorrow PM through Sunday AM. Nevertheless, I'm still curious if we're gonna get the snow the NWS is saying in its statement.

I just saw that it is snowing around Dallas, Texas (Dentin,Tx?) right now at about an inch or more an hour.  They said it is thunder snow due to the cold/warm air coming together.

I'm curious if what's going on down there is an indicator that the air will be cooler when the storm reaches our area.  As normal I'm clueless just looking for some input.  Thanks!!

I was looking at the QPF totals and they are saying 1.50-2.00 inches. What would that give us if we were to stay all snow?

Zach, if it is going to be an all snow event (probably a wet snow) then a foot to a foot and a half would be a good bet...if we don't turn over to a mix.

Chris....did it ever occur to you that some people like the snow? Ever occur to you that some people like myself depend on winter storms for extra income? The more it snows, the more we plow....the more money we have to pay ridiculous heating and electric bills! Think outside your little world which is in orbit somewhere millions of miles past past Pluto!

7:00 PM Update....Here is the latest on our storm system for Friday/Saturday.  As the  details come into better focus it looks more like a 2 or even 3 parts storm.  The first part arrives later tomorrow.  Still a rain wet snow mix at first.  Then it's probably all snow for a few hours Friday evening. My first thought on this is 2-4 maybe 2-5"  One trend that has showed up on the models today is that the steady precipitation may shut down for a while overnight Friday.  That would certainly minimize any icing tomorrow night.

Saturday a whole new area of steady precipitation moves in and the main low (or storm system) moves northeast from the Mid Atlantic states. The most likely precipitation here in Syracuse looks like sleet, freezing rain.  Southeast of Syracuse it could be rain.  As the parent storm strengthens and heads into New Engalnd later Saturday/Saturday night we should go back to all snow.  So the best chance for accumulating snow here in Syracuse is likely to be Friday evening and again Saturday night.

Again, this is one of those borderline situations so I'm sure there will be a few 'curve balls' thrown at us over the next 24 hours.

Jim

The latest QPF puts us near 2.50".

I think the term "STORM" is becoming greatly overused.  Having lived most of my 60 years in CNY, STORM used to be taken seriously as a warning:  make sure you had supplies on hand, make alternate child care and work arrangements,  reconsider travel plans...much as the word BLIZZARD might connotate now.  Anything under a foot in CNY is SNOW!  It might be a weather system, it might be worth being prepared for...but now...the word STORM is like crying wolf:  It's gonna snow...or maybe not.  Perhaps we need to reclassify incoming weather systems.  STORM means nothing now.

hi DAVE L any snow for oswego? 5 min from lake ontario... thank you

Since that one guy left to go to Australia, you guys have become my CNY weather heroes.  I really appreciate your blog posts because you don't dumb things down, you aren't afraid to speculate and give us some insight into how you weigh the options given what the various models predict, and you even add in some humor.  Its what I like about your on-air forecasts so much.  I'm sick of hearing at the other stations weather in terms of whether or not it is going to be "a big deal."  "Nooooo big deal."  And I used to LOVE those guys!

Anne...thanks for the kind comments.  All we can be is honest, and try to do the best we can.  Glad you enjoy the blog.

I've started a new blog at http://community.9wsyr.com/blogs/weather_discussion/archive/2008/03/07/2723318.aspx

that should carry us through the weekend.

Dave