Posted 7:20 AM Tuesday, Dave Longley - Boy, this one isn't an easy one, but I think we've got a good handle on things now. Rain has changed to snow, and from Syracuse northward through mid-afternoon, I think we'll end up with a few flurries. South of Syracuse, in roughly a line from Watkins Glen, to Ithaca, Cortland and Norwich, it will be messy today with snow, sleet and freezing rain falling. A significant build-up of ice is likely south of Syracuse today.
By late this afternoon, heavier precipitation will overspread all of CNY, including Syracuse. Honestly, it could fall as anything, but we think primarily snow and sleet to start. We'll see a transition to freezing rain, with a significant ice buildup is very likely early tonight. The wildcard in this is just how cold temperatures get today before that widespread heavy precipitation moves in late today.
Everything I've looked at, from the NAM and GFS, to our in-house mesoscale models, indicates enough warming after midnight tonight, that we see a transition to just rain. Temperatures could get to 40 degrees or better when we head out Wednesday morning. If anything, out models can sometimes be too slow in warming us, compared to reality, and given all the precipitation heading our way, I certainly hope this is the case.
The rain showers could end entirely when we head out the door Wednesday morning as a dry slot in the precipitation moves into CNY.
Certainly a very changeable forecast. I'll be updating throughout my shift here.
Dave
