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What's Going to Happen Tuesday/Wednesday?

Posted 2:30 PM Sunday - By Dave Longley - A very tricky forecast is in the cards for early this week.  Really, it's not all that surprising for this time of year.  We have a very warm airmass that's developing to our south (lots of 70s to our south) while we have winter hanging on north of here.  CNY will be right on the battleground between these two airmasses.  Almost a clash of seasons. 
As that warmth to our south comes our way tonight, we could see a bit of freezing rain tonight.  Whatever falls tonight will be very light.  The air over us is quite dry.

Much of Monday will be dry.  A good southerly wind coupled with very warm air aloft should translate to highs in the 40s to perhaps even low 50s.  Tomorrow's going to be a great day.  Get out and enjoy it.

Monday night a cold front is forecast to ease in from the north and west, and that could set up the foundation for a messy Tuesday.  This front will usher in colder air down near the ground over us.  That's part 1 we'll be watching.  Part 2 is a developing storm across the southern US.  This storm will result in a large outbreak of severe weather Monday across the Deep South.  This thing will have a lot of moisture with it as it begins to move north.  Depending on how much the cold air moves in, will determine what falls from the sky Tuesday, into Wednesday.  It's way too early to get specific on what will happen, but this has the potential to be messy.  I'm hoping for a cold rain, but it's starting to look more and more like ice and snow.

Unfortunately, this may be one of those instances where we may not be able to nail down the specifics until we're into the event.  Be sure to tune into Mark Chapin tonight at 6 and 11.  He'll have the latest info.  You may have already seen that he's trended downward with the temps for Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is due to the track of the low moving from into eastern Ohio (warmer for us) to SE PA (colder for us)  I don't think the models will have a good handle on this because of all the thunderstorms likely Monday in the southern US.

Enjoy the quiet weather today and Monday.

-Dave
Published Sunday, March 02, 2008 2:34 PM by dlongley

Comments

 

sandy said:

wow, thanks for the forecast. Does this mean we dont have to watch anymore? We will have to just wait for the event. Hi kevin Didnt i see you downtown last nite at the gentlemens bar?
March 2, 2008 2:22 PM
 

Zach said:

Thanks for the update. Can't wait for this one. Hope it's a lot of snow.
March 2, 2008 2:56 PM
 

Sal said:

It's that time of year when the season start to battle it out for survival...winter wants to hold on and spring wants to take over.  The end result....a wintery mix.  We've seen it so many times in march.  Some pretty impressive ice storms occur in March  Np matter what happens this week, Just remember this....there are lots more days ahead of us like what's forecast for Monday as opposed to the number of days like what's coming Tuesday and Wed.  Keep that thought in perspective and spring will be here before we know it.
March 2, 2008 3:18 PM
 

sandy said:

Thanks  Sal , I hope your right about spring.
March 2, 2008 3:25 PM
 

UpstateNY06 said:

Sal, so true!

Even tho it's 'cold' out today; that sunshine is fantastic, isn't it ?! Good 'ol March, the 1st day the sun is out and it gets near 50 (tomorrow?!) everyone will break out the shorts and t-shirts, LOL.
March 2, 2008 3:28 PM
 

bubba said:

Where is MMecca asking for a snow day?
March 2, 2008 4:47 PM
 

mmecca said:

Phil (Uncle Fester)  and  (Bubba),

Grow some hair and........

WHATEVER!!!!!!!!   LOL!!!!
March 2, 2008 6:30 PM
 

bubba said:

Hugs and kisses MMecca!!!!!!
March 2, 2008 7:02 PM
 

Eric said:

I hope it's not too much of a mess... After this winter being more cold & ess snow, I'm more than ready for Spring...
March 2, 2008 11:44 PM
 

DP said:

Wow, everyone is behaving so far, way to go! We don't need crabby people on these blogs. Thanks for the info that it's going to be a messy T-W, that's all I need to know to prepare. Keep up the good work Dave!
March 3, 2008 12:19 AM
 

dlongley said:

Update, 7:45 AM Monday - Winter Storm Watches are now posted for all of CNY by the National Weather Service.  Certainly a tricky forecast.  Still looks like mid or perhaps even upper 50s today for us with SUN this afternoon.  I'm thinking I'm going to fire up the grill tonight!

Tonight, cold air will start to ooze in here from the north, dropping temperatures to near freezing by Tuesday morning, with any rain showers changing to snow.  Could be a minor accumulation by Tuesday morning.

Much of tomorrow (at least the first 2/3 of it) could be pretty quiet, with just cloudy skies.  Low pressure will move from TN Tuesday morning into PA by Tuesday evening.  I don't think the cold will be firmly entrenched in CNY when that moisture arrives.  That's why we should see a range of precipitation types--from snow to sleet to freezing rain to just plain rain by Wednesday morning.  The reason for the watches is whatever falls Tuesday night, there will be a lot of it.  The models are printing out an inch or more of liquid precip.  Since this will be occurring at night, it'll be easier to ice up.

Wednesday morning's commute could be yet another dicey proposition.  Colder air will move in during the day Wednesday, behind our departing storm, changing everything over to snow as things wind down.

With the upper level storm opening up as it moves northeast, and passing to our west, I think it's very believable that we warm, changing any snow over to that dreaded wintry mix.  It's very possible we go entirely over to a chilly rain for awhile Wednesday morning.  

Assuming we stay relatively quiet during the day Tuesday, Tuesday night will be our messy time.  Oh yeah, I haven't even mentioned flooding.  We'll see a good deal of snow melt today (Monday) and that will feed into the streams for Tuesday, setting the stage for some localized flooding come Tuesday night/Wednesday.  We'll be keeping an eye on that too.

Dave
March 3, 2008 6:56 AM
 

Sal said:

Snow, sleet, and ran are all allowed, but it's that dreaded freezing rain that makes everyone uneasy.  And isn't it ironic that this forecast  for some freezing rain falls on the anniversary of the horrible 1991 ice storm that crippled the Rochester region.  Living in Lyons, we STILL associate any forecast for freezing rain with that dreaded storm that put so many people in the dark for days, even weeks.
Let's just hope history won't repeat itself this week!
March 3, 2008 7:33 AM
 

facefurny said:

Perhaps it's just me, but are we seeing more rapid and dramatic weather changes this year as opposed to the past years?

When I first moved to Central NY a couple of decades ago, we used to see at least a week of sub-zero weather in late January or early February, now sub-zero temps are a rarity (not that I mind).  We'd get one, maybe two mid-winter respites, and finally spring.  Now it's warm-cold-warm-cold almost every couple of days.
March 3, 2008 9:46 AM
 

malone said:

I can remember living in the 70's and early 80's here in Oswego and there would be several instances during most winters with subzero readings for a few days at a time and along with that the tea-kettle snow with very small flakes, very little wind and it may snow all day, but because the crystals were so small, accumulations would not be heavy, even though it might snow for 24 hours straight. I have not seen that scenario for many, many winters and as facefurny mentioned we have very few nights below zero as in many years past.
March 3, 2008 11:53 AM
 

Darrell said:

Sal, I wasn't around here for the 1991 ice storm in Rochester. How far east did it get? I wouldn't exactly call Lyons the Rochester area, actually it's just as close to Syracuse. Was this storm as bad as the '98 North Country one (which I *was* around for, unfortunately).
March 3, 2008 12:09 PM
 

Sal said:

Darrell,
The ice storm in 1991 got a bit further than east of Lyons.  In fact, I think the Syracuse area was spared most of the ice as the temps were warm enough to preclude a lot of ice.  
You are right, Lyons is just half-way between both Rochester and Syracuse but those of us here, seem to say we are more part of the Rochester market than the Syracuse market.  Don't ask me why.
And I would day the storm was equally as bad as the 98 North Country storm.
March 3, 2008 12:40 PM
 

Sherri said:

I think we have been lucky so far this winter.  We have missed alot of storms and bad weather.  This winter looks like the winter of 92 and 93.  It started out slow then in March we got it good.  We need some moisture for the summer.  With the little bit of snow this winter, are we going to have a real dry summer?  The last storm fizzled out and didn't do much, so lets see what this one does.  
March 3, 2008 12:58 PM
 

Jenn said:

Do we have any idea what the end of the week is looking like yet?

I have to travel to Syr for a final sometime this week and I am afraid today was the only good day.
March 3, 2008 1:25 PM
 

beckygool said:

I just read one of the weather advisories put out by the NWS.  It had the nerve to say 1" of freezing rain.  I think it was more for the Albany area.  Have they lost their minds?  Wouldn't 1" be very very bad?
March 3, 2008 2:14 PM
 

GSB Snowman said:

Becky, I was just reading the same thing Storm Watch for Albany and thinking the same thing.  Yes, an inch of freezing rain sticking could cause some big problems.  I think when you get to half an inch or more the problems start but I could be wrong.  Maybe Dave or someone else knows.

As much as I enjoy the snow this is one storm that I hope doesn't pan out from what I have been reading unless it comes in the form of snow or just plain old rain.
March 3, 2008 2:22 PM
 

Bonnie said:

I believe I heard that it's supposed to change over to all rain by Wednesday morning.  
March 3, 2008 2:39 PM
 

Shawn said:

Okay totally confused now.  I watched Dave E at 5 tonight and he said tomorrow during the day a good 3-6, 4-8 inches of snow, yet he is the only one I've seen that is forecasting this much snow.  Other websites have only 1-2.  Hoping Jim can explain
March 3, 2008 4:30 PM
 

Luke said:

shawn - its just hype.  we will mainly be south of the rain/snow line.  there will be a onset of mixed precip then all rain.  the end will have some snow showers.  after this warmth, there will only be precip on grassy areas.  asphalt is to warm from today. also, they will never bring the snow totals down and they will only explain after that areas around us saw the 3-6 that we were just to warm.
March 3, 2008 5:49 PM
 

mward915 said:

Dear Dave,
              What do you think the Auburn area will receive as in snow, sleet or just plain rain.  Also is this going to start late Monday night or sometime Tuesday?
 
                                                           Thanks as always
                                                                                    Mike
March 3, 2008 6:07 PM
 

dlongley said:

Wow, 24 hours since the original post, and things haven't gotten any clearer.  Truly, this one is going to have to be hour by hour forecasting through Tuesday.  We just don't know how much the cold air will be able to push into CNY Tuesday.  It's not like there's a huge reservoir of cold and dry air to tap into.  At best, we're marginally cold for just snow; probably we'll see a bit of everything come down during the day.  The second problem is the magnitude of moisture coming our way from the Deep South.  Interestingly, the 18Z NAM prints out over a foot of snow, while the GFS only has a couple inches.  

I know it's tough to plan around a forecast like that, but unfortunately this situation doesn't lend itself to too much specificity.  Rain will move in after midnight tonight, and then gradually change over to wet snow by Tuesday AM commute.  We'll see a mix of snow, sleet through Tuesday with a few inches of slop possible.  Roads will probably be fine--it is March after all.

The precipitation will get heavier during Tuesday afternoon and night, and we're candidates for frozen precip through Midnight, Tuesday night.  I'm beginning to think that freezing rain may be less of a problem; I'm just not sure if we'll be able to get the temps below 32 degrees much.

Everything should go over to just rain later Tuesday night and the first part of Wednesday.  That's everywhere, as a low track to our west should be able to warm everyone.

Bottom line...a lot of precip...a lot of uncertainty.  Perhaps Teske will chime in this evening.  I'm off to bed.  Looks like an even earlier day tomorrow.

Dave
March 3, 2008 6:30 PM
 

GSB Snowman said:

Quote from original post - "This thing will have a lot of moisture with it as it begins to move north."

I'm curious as to how this storm compares with the others so far this year as far as moisture is concerned.  This thing seems to be growing by the minute and drawing moisture from every direction.  Of course I'm probably wrong but this storm just looks bigger than the others.
March 3, 2008 6:36 PM
 

docbud said:

Thanks for the update, Dave

And so you know--I feel bad that some people here at these forums treat you and the others so shabbily.

doc
March 3, 2008 6:38 PM
 

Sal said:

I get the feeling this one isn't a clear cut forecast.  Lots of question marks and "what ifs"  I watched just about every tv station tonight, both in Syracuse and Rochester and each tells a different story.  The guys here at channel 9 certainly are forecasting the most snow tomorrow (the 4 to 8 inch scenario) The Rochester stations seem to be leaning more toward the icy scenario with some saying over a half inch of ice which they claim is the definition of a true ice storm.  Hey, it is fickle March.  A degree or two either way can make all the difference.  I guess time will tell.  These are the times I'm glad weather is just my hobby and not my paid job.  Good luck to all the true meteorologists out there.  I wouldn't want to be in your shoes for this one!
March 3, 2008 6:47 PM
 

Zach said:

Which model are you looking to the most for this storm? I've been watching the GFS almost exclusively through this whole storm, checking with other models once in a while, and the GFS only shows places s and e of syracuse changing to rain. Thanks for the updates and this is a very tricky forecast. This will come down to a matter of a degree or two!
March 3, 2008 7:19 PM
 

Gary H. said:

Like many weather stations are saying, it's going to difficult to tell exactly where and what is going to fall. It depends on the track of the storm, and the temperature at the ground level. I've been keeping tabs on the forecast, and I'm pretty sure earlier they were forecasting freezing rain around this area, now it seems as if it is going to be predominantly snow. Bottom line is that none of us will know until a few hours before the storm hits. If we stay below freezing at the ground level when the warm air is aloft, then we could get some icing. It's about that time of the year when we get the harsh ones.
March 3, 2008 7:20 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

9:00 PM update...Sal pretty much hit the nail on the head.  It's a tough forecast, especially given at 9 Pm it's still 54 here in Syracuse and we are awaiting the arrival of the cold air.  The scary thing is that the computer models that we use to forecast underforecasted today's warmth by quite a bit.  Even some of the small scale (or mesoscale) models that were running this afternoon were saying we should be in the 40s when it was in the upper 50s!  This leads to a low confidence forecast.

Here's our best shot as of this evening.  The cold front will come through shortly after midnight with some rain then we will turn colder.  There should be some snow by morning, perhaps even a light accumulation.  If we can stay cool enough the first part of the day Tuesday there could be several more inches of accumulation.  As mentioned above, we keyed in on the Finger Lakes where there could be a few 7 or 8" totals.  Of course the biggest 'what ifs' are one, if it snows and we are 34 or 35 the snow will be slower to accumulate.  Secondly, we are banking on the atmosphere getting warm enough for a changeover to sleet by early afternoon.  If that changeover occurs sooner there is no doubt the snow totals will be lower. Temperatures a degree or two high can make a big difference.

Sleet and freezing rain become the main concern during Tuesday afternnon into the evening.  Of the two main models we use for our short term forecasts the GFS is the fastest in bringing the mild air north and plain rain in here tomorrow night. given the way the winter has gone so far I would have to lean toward this faster scenario and bring rain into Syracuse before midnight.

That's all for now.  The new 00z data will be trickling in here over the next hour.  I don't know if I'll get a chance to blog again tonight but if there are any new insights I'll mention them during the 11 PM show.

Jim
March 3, 2008 8:07 PM
 

Zach said:

You guys are the best in Syracuse and we can count on you guys for the latest information.
March 3, 2008 8:26 PM
 

????? said:

Anyone know ho much snow will fall at 42 degrees north 90 degrees east?
March 3, 2008 9:02 PM
 

Shawn said:

Zack--You are so right.  These guys are the best!
March 3, 2008 9:06 PM
 

Bonnie said:

I would much rather someone forecast too much snow and then not get it, as compared to getting more snow than forecasted!
March 3, 2008 9:24 PM
 

YYZ said:

Here's what I think.

Tonight: Rain changing to snow by daybreak
Tomorrow: Snow mixing with sleet after 2PM. Snow and sleet accumulations 3"-5"
Tomorrow night: Rain, frezzing rain, and sleet. Ice accumulations arround 0.25"
Wedsnday: Rain mixing with snow after noon. Snow accumulations around 1"
March 3, 2008 9:30 PM
 

fiske said:

what  website do I go to if I want to look at  the GFS OR NAM models
Can  anyone tell me.
Thanks
March 4, 2008 12:20 AM
 

Zach said:

This is a link for many different models..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
March 4, 2008 5:26 AM
 

mstupid3000 said:

Ah, Monday's dinner was grilled steaks with a breath of spring. I think today it's take out with the furnace on.
March 4, 2008 6:22 AM
 

dlongley said:

I've started a new blog at http://community.9wsyr.com/blogs/weather_discussion/archive/2008/03/04/2706609.aspx to deal with today's mess.

mstupid3000, my steak last night was great.  I had to run some errands after dinner and it was nice to go out with just a long-sleeve t-shirt on and jeans.
March 4, 2008 6:40 AM
 

kbc said:

It is pretty clear from the radar...which i have been watching all day....that this storm is breaking up and I predict will not amount to much of anything...at least for west of Syracuse Western NY.

Maybe late tonite the mix in Ohio may get here..but I bet by then it will be rain.

No repeat of 91 Ice storm here.

Blessings and bring on the sun and spring!
March 4, 2008 2:54 PM
 

oswego county lifetime resident said:

seriously you people that complain about the forecast shouldn't be allowed in these sites.  I have lived all my life in Oswego county, and you just never know when it will rain snow sleet or whatever just deal with it
March 4, 2008 3:38 PM
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