Posted 9:30 Thursday by Dave Longley - The temperature is a whopping 5 degrees as I write this, and I've just about reached the breaking point. I know in reading the posts there are a lot of snowmobilers and skiers hankering for more snow, but I've played nice long enough. I want to smell the fresh cut grass and hit that first drive down the fairway. Oh well, at least we get to move the clocks ahead 1 hour next weekend (3/9) so that will get us some daylight later in the day. Anyway, I digress. Let's talk about the weather!
Arctic air has settled in over us, and it's looking like temperatures will struggle to reach the low teens today. At least the wind is light, so wind chills shouldn't end up much below zero today. At least we're seeing a little sun.
As for the lake effect snow. As long as we have cold air crossing the open waters of Lake Ontario, we will see some snow coming in across central New York. Thus far, the snow has been anything but impressive, and that's due to the VERY dry air crossing the narrow part of Lake Ontario. That Great Lake is having to do all the work on its own. That will change for a bit later today. Winds are forecast to become more westerly, which means we'll get a bit more moisture input from the Upper Great Lakes and the cold air will be spending a bit more time over Lake Ontario. So, what does this mean? I think we'll see an increase in snow later today near or just north of Syracuse, and in particular across Oswego county. This will not be super heavy snow. Let me repeat. THIS WILL NOT BE SUPER HEAVY SNOW. But if this happens and you live underneath this band of snow, you could pick up a few inches of fluff, especially near the shoreline in northern Cayuga and Oswego counties from later today, into the first half of tonight.
High pressure building over us tonight will squash that snow. Also, we'll lose the moisture input from the upper lakes. The winds will become light and switch to the southeast. After midnight, any lake effect will retreat to the shoreline, and we'll see some clearing. With the fresh snow, we're still candidates for another cold morning tomorrow, with lows around 5. Probably below zero away from any lake effect clouds.
We'll start with some sun tomorrow. Then clouds and wind will increase tomorrow as our next storm drops in from the north and west. This storm will spread some snow in here later tomorrow and tomorrow night with a couple of inches possible across all of CNY by Saturday morning. During the day Saturday, this system is forecast to strengthen to our east, and will yank down some more chilly air. We'll have some wind and occasional snow around most of the area Saturday, with temps falling from the low 30s in the morning, into the 20s by afternoon. There could be some heavier lake effect snow affecting the Tug Hill Plateau. That lake effect could swing down toward the Syracuse area Saturday night as it starts to weaken.
Thing swill quiet down some Sunday, before we see a shift in the wind to the south, and milder air will make inroads into the Northeast and CNY early next week.
Stay warm!
Dave
