Is it too early to predict what the accumulations could be from this storm? Thanks for the info, as always!

Is Chenango County included in this storm???  We desperately need snow for riding, and it seems to be north and south of us here in Central New York, though the media is telling us we are having more than average snowfall in the Northeast (but they are talking about New York City, not us)...

Yeah, UpstateNY06, it's still a bit early for accumulations.  As for Connie, Chenango county would indeed see some snow.  I have to check the new data.

Boy, the sun sure is nice today.

Dave

Dave,
You are sooooo right!  The sun felt so nice today.  Temps never got above freezing here in Lyons but I could "feel" springtime in the sun when it was shinning down on me.  The higher angle sure does make all the difference.  I'm sure we have lots of snow to get through, especially if March pans out to be a rough month.  BUT, pretty soon even that snow will have a hard time fighting the March sunshine.  Sure does cut down on lake effect...especially during the daylight hours.

Dave,
We are traveling to FL via I-81 to I-95. We are pulling a enclosed trailer with our motorcycle. My question is; will the precip. cause driving difficulty for me on I-81. We are leaving around 12:00 noon on Tuesday.  We are very worried about pulling a trailer in snow.
thanks,
Tony

rough estimate on accumilation, northern onondaga county needs some snow for riding the trails look terrible

I just hope the snow and/or freezing rain holds off until after Tuesday for the big vote!

I can't believe that people ARE actually riding on the 3"-4" that we got Friday. Makes for good parts sales and repair bills for dealers. But man that is just plain murder on a any multi thousand dollar sled. I'm desperate to ride too, but will NOT kill a sled to do so. MO. Would be great if we saw a nice 10"-16" general snowfall everywhere.

Dave can you at least give an educated guess on the low or high end?

Just caught some time to check out a few things.  Storm is coming into California, as I see it's raining in So. Cal for the NASCAR race.  Anyway, this storm will be trekking across the country, arriving here very late tomorrow/tomorrow night.  The temperature profile will be the thing to watch, as that dictates what falls from the sky.  Initially we start out as snow, but changeover for a time to sleet and freezing rain and perhaps just plain rain.  How many times have we seen that this winter?  

There is some hope for the snowlovers.  The UKMET and Euro models are farther southeast with the low track vs. the American models (WRF/GFS)  That would mean more snow and less mix.  The Canadian model favors the colder and snowier solution.

I just checked out the ensemble runs of both the WRF and GFS and they really don't clear anything up.  

You're hankering for accumulations, and honestly I'm reluctant to put anything out there for fear of getting crucified in the end.  It's just not a slam dunk forecast (how many really are?)  Let's try this for now.  The chance for a 6" or more snowfall for CNY from this system is 60%.

Actually, this could be a rather prolonged event when you factor in the low deepening as it moves into New England and drags colder air in from the Northwest.  We may see highs only around 20 Wednesday and we might not get out of the teens Thursday.

I'll check back in later this afternoon.

Dave

Thanks for the update Dave!  The snow is supposed to start LATE in the day tomorrow, or more like tomorrow night (after 8 or 9?)

I'm hoping for a moderate snowfall!  And as far as being crucified?  Who cares.  MOST of the people in this blog understand how hard it is to forecast snow events.  As far as the other idoits in here, who cares!  What is you're GUT feeling as someone asked that question in here a few months back?

Looking foward to your update later!!!!  Thanks again!

Just saw the new 18Z NAM and the 12Z EURO and UKMET and Canadian.  The NAM continues to be farther north with the low center over central Indiana at 7 AM Tuesday.  Canadian is over central OH and the UKMET/EURO (the colder solutions) are over Kentucky.  

I think 6" will be a cinch.  It may not come in the first wave, but more like later Tuesday night into Wednesday with the wraparound/lake effect.

Oh yeah, looks like things hold off until close to sunrise Tuesday.  We've got another beauty on tap for tomorrow.  Enjoy the sun!

Dave

yea acjagz it rediculous, im not riding in this, like you said big parts bills, whats the point, then you have little snow to cool the sled and sliders causing melting and possibly burning down a motor its pathetic

Where do you think the lake effect will set up after the initial low pressure system?

Will the lake effect be anywhere near the Auburn area?  Being such a fan of snow and get disapointed when nothing ever happens, here we are so close yet so far most times.

Boy we are do for a biggie of a storm so bad around CNY this pathetic of a winter we are having it really starting to bug me i just want enough snow to ride around here and not go north. I rode yesterday near the Hannibal/Fair Haven area snow was thin but oh well gotta ride when possible i guess.

So what do all you guys ride for snowmobiles?????.

08 REV Xp 800r here.

is this a weather blog or a blog for snowmobilers? You might as well hang it up for this year unless you want to ride on 6 inches of wet snow with no base  around here.Maybe you should buy a trailer and travel a hour away.

I know that Mark said in the broadcast that all of CNY will see 6 inches Tuesday Night and into Wednesday.  But is it possible that some areas might see totals near a foot if this does develop into a decent Nor'Easter?

Hey Joe I dont think this is a noreaster.

Why do you guys at news channel 9 always try to hype a storm?  This is no noreaster.  Maybe for New England but for Syracuse just another round of snow.  The lake effect will be far from impressive.  The winds out of the north travelling over the narrest part of the lake not to mention the wind shear.  Also for the snowmobilers.  I know you want a big storm for snow so you can go riding.  But with the way the weather has been all winter, it will be melted ny a few days. Right now thry have temps next week in the high 30,s and on a few days temps will be in the mid 40's.  

Hey joe16.  I wouldnt listen to Mark.  He has been way off this year on accumulations.  Not to mention Dave E.  He said last storm would see 2-12'' of lake effect.  Come on!  I should have had 12'' delivered to his front door step!!!!

Ch 3 that my wife likes says one thing, Ch 9 I like says another, who knows.  

Im not a weatherman but it looks like 2 inches of snow  turning to rain back to snow after it gets colder maybey another inch. Then after that it all depends on which way the winds blow...

In the end as usual this will be much ado about nothing. I say 1" to 3" at best.  To much rain coming with this to worry about any big snow total.  People in Jefferson and Oswego counties have to be snickering at us worrying about a couple inches.

There will be no rain with this storm and accumulations of >5" easily.

Im not a weatherman but it looks like 2 inches of snow  turning to rain back to snow after it gets colder maybey another inch. Then after that it all depends on which way the winds blow...

I think you guys are right.Channel 9 has called Wolf to many times.

All snow coming.

Right now it looks like most of tuesdas late am to early evening it will be all rain.  It looks like a little snow behind the storm but a we all know it very grainy/sugary snow.  They hyped the last storm and all we saw all day was maybe an inch.  Also with the sun burning through the clouds on wednesday it will keep areas black if properly treated.  During the last storm the sun kept trying to burn through the deep clouds and that allowed for some melting.  Right now the expert guys are calling for a general area of 3-6 including syracuse.  Now not everyone will get that as we know.  So lets use storm pasts this winter and remember all the hype and 1-2 inches of grainy snow.

This conversation died off just like this so called storm will.

When it does die off it will be said the storm didn't take the tract that the early computer models told us, or something to that effect.

Dear Dave,
             I've been doing the good ol' snow dance for a better part of two months hear in Auburn.  I hope that this storm will actually produce some serious accumulations near the Auburn area, Do u have any idea if Auburn will get the snow thats coming?  

Hey, look like were going have a pretty good NASCAR race tonight also Dave! Go Jimmie and Jeff!!

                                    Thanks,
                                                Mike

LOVING this weather. Went riding on Oneida Lake this afternoon, for the most part...it was BEAUTIFUL. You couldnt ask for more sunshine and decent temps for the last week in February!
Definately looking forward to a few more inches this week......

LET IT SNOW!!!

me im riding a 03 sno pro 440 and a 99 zrt 600 both arctic cats, i know you ski doo riders hate the cats nut oh well must say the ski doos arent too bad i guess. and yea this is drifting like the storm they hype all of this. a storm is a foot or more not this 1 to 3 inch bull, metorologist is the only job you can be completely wrong at and still keep your job, pathetic

Christian couldn't agree more..... at least they are consistant.

haha thanks frank

I think what is pathetic is that you guys can't spell. What type of goon jobs do you have? Waiters? Garbage men? Just general day-order goons?

haha matt the thing is nobody cares on here we all have good jobs were just not stuck up goody two shoes guys   like you. your more pathetic than all of us together so go finish that online spelling bee, ok

lets get back to snowmobiles and weather

some  people  don't  realize  that  getting  the  weather  right  is  important  to  some  people  who  own  a  business. I  don't  think  Dave,  Dave  or  Jim  even  realize  it.
When  it's  cold  and  snowy,  my  business  picks  up. When  I  hear  a  report  of  a  storm,  I  spend  extra  money to  stock  my  store  expecting  it  to  busy  but  when  they  predict  wrong,  I  end  up  slow  and  I  didn't  need  to  spend  the  extra  money  afterall.
Sometimes  when  they  get  the  forecast  wrong,  I  watch  to  hear  the  explaination
but  I  never  hear  it,  I  think  they  avoid  it.

Fiske--Did you ever consider the fact that you can NOT control mother nature?  You just can't.  All these guys do is TRY do forecast the BEST you can.  How can you NOT understand that?

I'm in the snow business, and snow/no snow effects my money outcome as well, but I on the other hand understand how hard it is to forecast weather, and know that you can't control it!

Lightin up!

All the models have taken the storm south which means snow for us and lots of it!

All the models have taken the storm south which means snow for us and lots of it!

Give the guys a break I doubt they are sitting at channel 9 laughing trying to figure out a way to give wrong forecast to screw people up.  I think Zach has it right, Tuesday a mixed bag then Tuesday night and Wednesday looks like we are get a good amount.

Two questions.....
I need to drive to Albany and back via Oswego/Syracuse.

I need to be back by 6 to teach a class at SUNY OSwego.  I have students coming from Ithaca and Rochester.

Q 1.  what will the thruway be like from 6-9 a.m. and 2:30-5 p.m.?

Q2.  How will 481 be from 5-6 p.m.?

Q. 3 will Ithaca north and Rochester E be bad?

Ok.. that was 3 questions.

S

Shawn,

While I agree with your sentiment in that the guys are doing the best they can, and can be wrong sometimes and I understand that it's not an exact science by any mean, it is a situation that they have largely contributed to over the years.

The problem with people holding them accountable for inaccurate forecasts is one that they themselves have created in the last 10-20 years.  Take the endless on-air promos for the weatherteam/stormteam (whatever station you happen to watch) hammering us with the message before you leave the house, or make plans, think, etc., that you should rely on the weatherteam/stormteam (etc) forecast first.

When they hype themselves up to be the all-important source of weather information that people should trust, they are in fact elevating themselves to a higher standard and the viewers are holding them accountable.   You can't blame them, can you?  Or have you forgotten Bud's Big Storm?

Scamp - Are you serious? Do you really expect someone to come on here and give you road conditions? Even if they had nothing better to do and actually wanted to answer you, how could they? How can they predict how often plows are going to be working those roads? It's a big (widespread) storm and tomorrow's going to be messy. period. You're going to have to deal with it like everybody else.

What is it with people on here asking for specific forecasts for exactly where they'll be? Like the person at the top that asked if Chenango county will be affected. The storm is going to hit the entire eastern half of the country, do you really thing your county is going to be missed?

/end rant

Things are trending colder now, which means primarily snow for us beginning midday Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday.  How much we get is all going to be dependent on the track, but it looks like 6 to 12 inches would be doable for us by midday Wednesday.  I'm sure someone will get more, and probably some folks will end up with a bit less.  This should be good for snowmobilers.  I've started a new blog at http://community.9wsyr.com/blogs/weather_discussion/archive/2008/02/25/2619844.aspx  for this particular storm.  We're working hard at getting the snowfall with the main storm coming in and really won't begin to assess the lake effect until this afternoon.  Wind and cold temperatures should make it feel pretty harsh around here by Wednesday.

-Dave