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Teske's Tidbits (2/21/08) The One About Finding Winter

 During a quiet moment last week in the office last week I wandered a bit.  I wanted to see how winter was going across other parts of the country so I surfed the web and looked at National Weather Service climate reports.  It’s amazing how much you can piece together from these reports.  You can do a little CSI style detective work and figure out the winter storm track.

 

What got me going on this search was the snow total for the season in Madison, Wisconsin which is a seasonal record. They picked up another 6” of snow from a weekend storm and they are fully 50” above normal for the season.  When a looked around the rest of the Midwest I found city after city with above normal snowfalls for the season:

 

Milwaukee        +38”
Chicago            +18
Rockford          +30”
Green Bay        +36”


When you put that together with our above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall of the past 2 months the picture becomes pretty clear.  Areas of low pressure have moved through the Ohio Valley then west of Central New York.  While we’ve been getting storms with snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain these same storms have brought mainly snow to the Midwest.


Here is a good story that explains why the big snows have been falling over the Midwest. Part of it is tied into the ongoing La Nina. The story is written by a meteorologist at the National Weather Service-Milwaukee: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=13029&source=0

 

What may be a surprise, however, is that it’s been a snowy winter not too far to our northeast over New England.  Portland, Maine and Concord, New Hampshire are both well above normal for the season.  Burlington Vermont is pushing 100” of snow and that has to mean some great skiing over the mountains of northern New England and even northern New York (hint, hint Whiteface).  Even though Burlington’s temperatures have been above normal the last 2 months (like us) their average is still about 4 degrees cooler than Syracuse. They are holding onto the cold air longer than Central New York as these storms track to our west. That’s not to say northern New England is immune from mixed precipitation.  I found that the days with sleet or freezing rain in Syracuse and Burlington are similar (11 days versus 10 days). 


We do think there will be a change in the pattern for Central New York as we head into the late winter early spring. It’s not so much based on our computer models more a pattern recognition from past weather. We are going to detail that starting tonight at 11 PM on the TV side of thing..  If that’s too late we will re-run things during The Morning News Friday morning.

 

Published Thursday, February 21, 2008 8:30 AM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

tom f said:

jim, could you give me a comparison with our winter this year, and compare it to 2001-2002
February 21, 2008 11:40 AM
 

GSB Snowman said:

Tom, I just took a look at some of the snow stats from the seasons you mentioned.  I'm not trying to play Jim but your question got my curiosity flowing so I figured I would post the stats I found here.  My math is normally the fuzzy math type and I'm sure Jim will correct what ever I messed up but here are some comparisons as far as snow totals go for the 2 seasons.  I didn't get into the temps and so on.  Looking at the stats side by side no doubt that December stands out big time.

October 2001 - Snowfall = 0.2
October 2007 - Snowfall = Trace

November 2001 - Snowfall = 0.5 in
November 2007 - Snowfall = 6.8 in

December 2001 - Snowfall = 7.3 in.
December 2007 - Snowfall = 49.8 in.

January 2002 - Snowfall = 21.2 in.
January 2008 - Snowfall = 10.1 in

February 2002 - Snowfall = 13.5 in.
February 2008 - Snowfall = 15.3 (To Date)

March 2002 - Snowfall = 14.1 in.
March 2008 - Snowfall = ????

April 2002 - Snowfall = 2.6 in.
April 2008 - Snowfall = ????

2001 - 2002 Total Snowfall = 59.4 inches
2007 - 2008 Total Snowfall = 82.0 inches (To Date)

Right now Syracuse is almost dead on it's average snowfall totals to date going by NOAA's formula which I believe is based on a 30 year period with a 10 year rolling system.  If it wasn't for the heavy snow in December we would be below normal for the season.
February 21, 2008 1:33 PM
 

YYZ said:

I have this gut felling that we are gonna get whammed with snow durring march, but am I right?
February 21, 2008 1:45 PM
 

Coffeeguy said:

Do we have any updated totals for the north areas after yesterdays snow?
February 21, 2008 2:41 PM
 

WeatherT said:

Could we get some of that arctic air to come down for the 1st week of March.  With this active storm pattern, we just need a good shot of cold air to stay over us long enough and there would be a potential for a big storm.  Could it be the last shot for the real arctic air to spill in?
February 21, 2008 4:36 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

GSB,

You're math seems to work out right on the snowfall.

Coffeguy,

I did see a report from the NWS in Buffalo of 49" in Pulaski. The core of the big snow yesterday was from Pulaski to Orwell and Richland.

Jim
February 21, 2008 8:40 PM
 

gymcat1 said:

I feel a "blizzard of '93" coming.... I don't know why, but schools beware.  A lot of districts are just about out of snow days.  How does our weather compare to 1993? I'm just curious.  I'm not a weather aficionado, so I have no idea if we are on track for a March similar to '93 or totally off track. any  thoughts? (I'd love to see at least one more *good one* before spring.)
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