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Snow Friday??

   This one has been an absolute pain to forecast for.  The basic setup is cold air in place, that's been with us this week.  A messy bundle of energy coming at us from the SW that will be able to load up with lots of Gulf Moisture.  The models we use have been all over the place between absolutely nothing and a big snowfall.  Obviously we're dealing with latitudinal placement of the track of the low, making or breaking the forecast.  Unless we run into some sort of mesoscale features well north of the track of the low complicating things, I think we'll see some light snow develop during the day Friday, continuing into Friday night.  Places like Oswego could pick up an inch or two, while Ithaca, Cortland Norwich may end up closer to 4 inches or so by the time things are winding down Saturday morning.  Some accumulating snow I do see, but not a big dumping of snow.  At least at 1:45 on Wednesday afternoon.

Dave
Published Wednesday, February 20, 2008 1:32 PM by dlongley

Comments

 

Drew said:

Yeah I was looking at the models earlier today trying to see what kind of heads up to give people....the NAM had Ithaca picking up a good 9" of snow, while the GFS had about 1/2"! Should be interesting!
February 20, 2008 8:00 PM
 

dlongley said:

Update, 9:13 AM Thursday - Our messy storm is taking shape this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley.  Owing to the energy with this system, there is a tornado watch posted this morning for the Louisiana Gulf Coast.  Oodles of winter weather advisories and watches are in effect from Oklahoma all the way eastward through PA.  Again, as I explained above, this one will have to be watched closely because any northward shift would put us in some decent snow.  At this point, it looks like a glancing blow, with snow accumulations between Friday morning and Saturday morning of a dusting to 2 or 3 inches.  Again, higher amounts will be found closer to the track of the low along the NY/PA line.  

-Dave Longley
February 21, 2008 8:24 AM
 

rescue141x said:

2-3 inches? Another boring storm. Either bring on the real storms, or bring on spring.
February 21, 2008 9:01 PM
 

Shawn said:

All it is going to take is a LITTLE jog to the North and we might end up getting more like 3-6.  Waiting for Jim to update us....
February 21, 2008 9:53 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

One note about today's snow.  As Dave Eichorn mentioned last night this will be the first widespread non-lake effect snow event without mixed precipitation for Syracuse since New Year's Eve morning.  That's 7 whole weeks right in the heart of winter!

Based on what I've seen early this morning still looks like a light snowfall for us here in Syracuse today.  There may be a couple hour period of snow midday when things pick up a bit but we should be tapering off to flurries by the evening commute.

Jim
February 22, 2008 5:11 AM
 

Jim Teske said:

I stand corrected.  Mark Chapin reminded me that we had an inch of snow last Friday before lake effect got started Friday night.  So today is the second non-lake effect snowfall without mixed precipitation in 2008 for Syracuse.

Jim
February 22, 2008 10:16 AM
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