Posted 3:30 PM Tuesday - Lake effect snows are starting to flare up again, and should get stronger through the evening.  The air aloft is forecast to get progressively colder, and we should see some contribution of moisture from the upper Great Lakes.  Steering winds are west-southwest now and will become more westerly through the evening.  This will push the band of heavy lake effect snow southward toward the Oswego-Rome corridor.  There was some question among the computer models we use as to just how far south the snowband gets this evening.  I would think a Fulton-C.Square line would be about as far south as it gets.  Any move south will be brief.  Winds will become more southwesterly after midnight, pushing the band of heavy snow back to the north.  2 to 8 inches of snow are possible through central Oswego county.  We did put 1 to 2 feet in from this afternoon through 7 AM Wednesday east of the lake.  Those high end totals will be dictated by how much the band moves around  tonight.  If it sits in one place for awhile, a foot or more will be a cinch.

So what happens Wednesday?  Well, a very weak area of low pressure is forecast to pass by to the south of New York State through the mid-Atlantic states.  This thing has been forecast weaker and weaker with each new set of model data, and at this point it doesn't look like much more than flurries for us.  Teske and I discussed sun chances tomorrow, and it would seem we could get some sun in the morning.  We may even see some filtered sun through some mid and high clouds. 

Once the low goes by, winds will become northwest and the lake effect snow will move south.  At this point, it doesn't look like we'll be able to establish a connection to the upper Lakes.  Of course that could always change.  The flow looks to be what I call "flat"  In other words, we like to see nice curvature of the wind flow over the lakes.  Almost like a flattened "c"  lying a bit on its side.  Later tomorrow and tomorrow night, the flow is pretty straight out of Ontario Canada across the narrow axis of Lake Ontario.  Any contribution of moisture from the upper lakes would end up west of Syracuse.  Here's an interesting satellite image that shows some ice forming on Georgian Bay.  That will limit its ability to shoot moisture our way.

One thing is for sure.  It's going to be cold, with highs in the low 20s. 

Dave