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Weather Discussion

Lake Effect Potential Sunday Night

Well, the arctic cold front just moved through Central New York.  Between Noon and 1 PM there was very heavy snow and gusty winds reducing visibilities to near zero in the Syracuse area.  For the next couple of hours we will transition into more of a Lake Effect regime.  I will say I have had only limited access to data here at home so far Sunday but here is what we are up against.

First off, it looks like the coldest air aloft (at 5,000 and 10,000 feet) will move overhead tonight.  This is when the heaviest snow will likely fall with accumulation rates probably in the 1-3" per hour range.  There should be some thunder as well.

As far as the winds are concerned it appears that tonight they would favor an area from Central and Southern Oswego, northern Cayuga into northern Oneida Counties.  There may be times tonight when then squalls get close to northern Onondaga County. I'm not 100 % sure about that at this point.

If you do the math, that will put some folks in the counties listed above in the 1 to 2 feet category for accumulation. If want to know the expected snowfall for a specific town make sure to flip back to the main weather page where Mark and Brandon will keep you updated with the latest snowfall maps and I would guess they may do a video forecast update before the main 6 PM newscast.  Also, there will be maps from our Timecast showing expected position of the squalls as we go through the night.

Squalls will be a bit weaker Monday but they will still be producing accumulating snow.  the tendency during the day will be for them to slowly drift to the north.

Jim

Published Sunday, February 10, 2008 1:57 PM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

dlongley said:

4:30 Sunday - Dave Longley - Just looking at a few things this afternoon to get geared up for tomorrow morning.  Teske pretty much outlined things nicely above.  I was looking at the WRF model out of NWSBUF and it keeps the band across the northern half of Oswego and southern Lewis county through midnight, then starts to drop it south, ending up right along the Oswego/Onondaga line by 5 tomorrow morning.  That particular model does not get the band as far south as the city of Syracuse.  With the true cold air arriving this evening, and an upstream connection to the upper lakes, this band should really start to rock this evening with more than likely a solid core of yellow developing on Live Doppler 9.  

The band is forecast to slowly weaken across Oswego and Oneida counties during the day Monday.  

The NWSBGM has issued a lake snow warning and wind chill advisory for Monday morning.  Wind chills should be in the -10 to -20 range as you head out tomorrow morning.  Winds should stay gusty right through tonight, so take care on the roads; blowing snow will continue to be a problem.

-Dave
February 10, 2008 3:39 PM
 

MARK D. said:

HI DAVE. STARS ARE OUT AND A NICE QUARTER MOON HERE IN CENTRAL SQUARE. ALTHOUGH WINDS STILL GUSTY,25-3O.WITH GUSTS TO 45. ARE WE IN STORE FOR 1-2 FEET HERE IN CENTRAL SQUARE?
February 10, 2008 6:19 PM
 

Shawn said:

Driving into work at 630 tonight, here in Onondaga Hill, it is extremly windy!  The stars are out, but anywhere the snow can blow, boy is it!  Judging by the band of lake effect coming into our area right around day break tomorrow and with the wind, I highly doubt schools in Onondaga Country will be open tomorrow.  I'm sure I'll be getting a call from local schools around daybreak (They call to check on the road conditions etc/and to see when plows will be out)

I just looked at a few forecast maps for Wednesday, and it looks like a clipper system is headed our way, but we might be right on the edge of warm air, so it might mix???????  Hopefully Jim and Dave will give us insight once we get through tomorrow!

Drive safe everyone and keep warm!
February 11, 2008 12:54 AM
 

Rhea said:

Hello ev1. I am in northern Oneida county, in Steuben, and we are getting hit hard with snow, no stars to be seen, matter of fact, no anything but snow to be seen, lol. It has been snowing and blowing for more than a couple of hours now. If it keeps up like this, one foot of snow would not be out of the question. Bitter, bitter cold as well!!!
February 11, 2008 1:24 AM
 

dlongley said:

14" overnight in Mexico.  12" in Redfield and 20" total in Boonville from Sunday and Sunday night.  This is the strongest the band has looked with a large core of yellow indicating very heavy snowfall rates of 1 to 3, perhaps 2 to 4 inches per hour.  Throw in the gusty winds and whiteouts are common in Oswego county this morning.

Boy, the air is dry outside the band, but once we got the upper lake connection this morning, the radar really lit up.  We still have a connection to Georgian Bay as shown on this radar image: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR

Elsewhere, it's bitterly cold with wind chills around -10 to -15.  There is some light snow in Syracuse at 7:45, but again, we think the core of heavy stuff will only move into extreme northern Onondaga county this morning.  We'll be watching the radar closely.

-Dave
February 11, 2008 6:46 AM
 

dlongley said:

8:15 update - I just re-sent the snowfall forecast map with a 10-18" core of snow forecast for western and southern Oswego county.  That band has stalled out between Oswego and Fulton, with the area of most intense snowfall extending inland toward Central Square.  I don't really see this area of heavy snow moving much through the day, with the heavy snow just slowly going away.  There should still be some snow coming in off of Lake Ontario right into the first half of tonight across Oswego county.

-Dave
February 11, 2008 7:17 AM
 

NorthBayLight said:

About 6 inches for us in North Bay overnight. That wind off the lake makes for some nasty drifts and bitterly cold temps. Drove through Sylvan/Verona Beach on my way through to Oneida, roads were terrible and visibility was next to impossible around the northeast and east shore.


Let It Snow!
February 11, 2008 7:28 AM
 

Nature Chris said:

Dave,
Just light to occasionally moderate snow here in Brewerton this morning. I have a question for you. Yesterday at noon when the cold front punched through the region with a quick burst of intense snow I heard thunder. Why does thunder occur with intense snow?

February 11, 2008 7:38 AM
 

Mrs. Mecomber said:

Well, I watched your weather forecasting quite closely Friday and Saturday, in expectation of Sunday's forecast for the southern tip of Oneida County. I went to church under sunny skies, expecting no snow, according to the forecast. When I walked out the door to drive home, snow was falling and visibility was about 50 feet! What a surprise! What happened? I thought the lake effect was not going to drop this far south.
February 11, 2008 7:47 AM
 

dlongley said:

Nature Chris,  thunder in the winter is caused by the same mechanisms we see in the rest of the year.  Usually in summer, we're warm, but up where the clouds are, it's cold.  That makes for an unstable atmosphere, in other words the air wants to rise very rapidly, which causes clouds and precipitation.  

Of course, we're colder in winter, which means we have to be very cold aloft, and that was definitely the case yesterday.  That's why we put thunder in the forecast this past Friday for yesterday.  You get heavy rain with summer thunderstorms, and you get heavy snow with winter thunderstorms.
February 11, 2008 7:48 AM
 

dlongley said:

Mrs. Mecomber - That wasn't lake effect snow, that was the arctic cold front that Mark Chapin talked about Saturday, that would move through later Sunday morning.  Boy did it ever!  As I responded to Chris, we even had thunder and lightning.  That was one heck of an arctic front.  The subsequent whiteouts caused a big traffic smashup in Rochester, and I also heard of another one near Scranton, PA.

-Dave
February 11, 2008 7:51 AM
 

rescue141x said:

Man I live in Phoenix, NY and we NEVER get any snowfall from the lake effect. This sucks!
February 11, 2008 1:32 PM
 

malone said:

   My guess rescue141x? Phoenix is very close to the Onondaga County border and generally trajectory plays an important role in snowfall amounts and how strong a band is when it is over any particular area. Generally a NW wind with a varying degree of error is not quite as conducive for heavy lake snow due to the shorter fetch although contribution from the upper lakes is possible with that. Areas that are due east or even east-south-east(Mexico, Parish, Pulaski, Sandy Creek) of the lake are in a position where the air that comes across the lake prior to it reaching landfall has had at least 150 miles to moisten up and compared to perhaps less than 100 where you live. And with the Tug Hill and the elevation factors which squeezes out any additional moisture, that is another ball game. Dave probably has more insight than I do...just a guess. I have seen Phoenix with plenty of snow in some winters.
February 11, 2008 3:53 PM
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