Posted 4 PM Tuesday, 2/5/2008 - Dave Longley - Well, politically it's Super Tuesday, and meteorologically it's shaping up that way too. We've got our own issues, but if you're a severe weather afficianado, we have a high risk of severe storms this afternoon across the TN Valley and Deep South. Tornado watches have been posted, and the atmosphere down there is ready to explode.
The warmth exploded northward toward us with thunder and small hail. Things have tapered off as the warm front is moving south now as a cold front. Cold air is gradually oozing southward back into central New York, setting the stage for some messy weather here Wednesday.
The mess will be caused by an area of low pressure now over Missouri. That's the one that's causing the severe weather this afternoon well to our south and west. That low will bring another widespread area of rain to our area later tonight. The thing I've been pulling my hair out over is the depth of the cold air over us and what exactly will fall from the sky. I started playing this up on TMN this morning, and now I see the NWS has issued winter weather advisories for Onondaga county and points north. South of Syracuse, it looks like the thermal setup of the atmosphere will be warm enough for rain. Boy, will it rain. Computer models are spitting out 1 to 2 inches of rainfall tonight and early Wednesday. That could cause some flooding across the southern half of the state.
The thing we have to be careful about is what falls over the Syracuse area Wednesday morning. Honestly, it's a coin flip now, and we're playing it as a snow, sleet, rain mix. Some of that low level cold air could push a bit farther south and we could end up with freezing rain. This one will be one to watch over the next 24 hours.
-Dave
