46 degrees at 6:oo a.m. 20 degrees 3:oo p.m. c.n.y. go figure

Dave, you mentioned that the rain on Friday will eventually turn to snow.  Will this be an accumulating snow for Friday night?  And, for those of us who do have the benefit of possible school delays and closings, do you see this as a possibility Friday morning?

8:15 PM update....

An interesting lake effect set up this evening.  It is keeping us busy. We actually have two 'bands' : one from of Lake Erie and other from off Lake Ontario. The Lake Erie band is really broken up right now over Oswego County.  The Lake Ontario band is more impressive.  1/4 mile visibility with heavy snow at Fort Drum for the last few hours.  Our thinking is this band will shift south tonight and settle into northern Oswego County for a while before weakening in place close to daybreak.  Best chance for a foot of snow tonight will be over the Tug Hill.

As far as Friday is concerned, snow should arrive close to daybreak from south to north.  It will be likely be a quick burst of snow for everyone which will make the third tricky morning commute of this week.  However, I doubt we will be able to accumulate much snow since we will see a changeover to sleet toward mid morning.  That should be followed by some freezing rain.  How serious the icing is depends on whether we can get above freezing in the afternoon to thaw a bit.  Right now we think that will be the case but it is a close call.  

It does look like a change back to snow at the tail end of this system Friday night but it is a fast mover and most of the precipitation is over. Unless the projected path of the storm changes over the next day or so I think the Friday evening accumulation of snow will be light.


Jim

Looks like a really tricky forecast for you guys--You have your work cut out for you!

Thanks for the updates!

Does April 4 ring a bell?  The worst ice storm we've had in a while on that date.  I hope it's not a repeat with the ice.  UGLY!  I'm hoping Sunday will be decent for all the superbowl party goers.  I get really paranoid when the lake effect machine starts up after last year.  And I keep a constant eye on the weather map...it seems that Hannibal gets pounded but the rest of the area gets minimal snow but you wouldn't know it by looking outside so the map is handy if we want to go somewhere.  Thanks WSYR for having it here.

Karen I sure do remember that ice storm.  I lived in Hannibal at the time and went to Syracuse to give birth to my daughter the evening of the 3rd, right after the ice started.  Nobody could come visit us the next day!  When I was discharged from the hospital, I couldn't go home because we still didn't have power.  I had to stay with family.  Doesn't look like this storm will be that icy though.

One thing I have always wondered.  Are these types of storms (the Gulf and Coastal) the hardest weather to predict?  If so why are they.  If I were to guess it would be because of trying to predict the path that the storm takes and also what the temperatures be when it makes it up to the Northeast.  Also which temperatures play the biggest part in trying to predict these storms.  The air temperature higher up or the temperatures down below.  I'm sure there is a lot more that comes into play and I have always been curious.

I've been watching the radar most of the day and it has been trying to head to the east of CNY but doesn't look like it will make it far enough to keep it a snow event.  Any updates?  Thanks guys!

fat chance for snow[ 5 inches ]  friday ; just wishful thinking for meteorog=logists ; u guys  should learn to love 60 degree weather tues. and wed.

GSB,

A couple things about coastal storms and ones that move up from the Gulf that makes them tricky.  First, with a storm like Friday's you have to throw in the variable of precipitation type.  Trying to time changeovers from snow to sleet or rain can be tough at times. That's what makes snow totals so tricky.  Although tomorrow I still think that change will happen quickly during the morning that's why we're only forecasting a trace-2" here (Don't know where the 5" talk is coming from, maybe another blog).  Secondly, especially in coastal systems you get these small scale 'bands' of heavier precipitation that form.  They can make the difference between one place getting 6" of snow and another spot 10 or 20 miles away getting a foot and a half. Sometimes we can only forecast these kinds of features a few hours in advance.

Some more specifics about tomorrow's weather, it looks like we will get our snowfall between 6 and 9/10 AM in Syracuse.  Shift those times a bit earlier for areas south of Syracuse and little later to the north.  There will probably be a 6-8 hour period with sleet or freezing rain then around mid afternoon we start to turn to rain as temperatures go above freezing.  It still looks like a minimal accumulation of snow later Friday night as we go from rain bcak to snow.

jon ch, actually I'm looking forward to 60 degree weather. That's why I'm counting down to Spring Training in all my blogs ;)

Jim

Jim, Thanks for the explanation and a good call again so far on todays weather for the TV 9 crew.  It looks like the change over from snow has begun already.  Lets all hope that the change over to just rain happens sooner than expected so too much ice doesn't accumulate.

Pat

SNOW HAS STOPPED HERE IN CENTRAL SQUARE. WINDS PICKING UP. A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN HAS OCCURED. LIVE DOPPLER SHOWS PRECIP. LULLING A LITTLE IN C.N.Y. HOPE THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. OCCUR SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED.

jim, thank you for your efforts. 54 years and after brutal winters from 58- 98 winter has changed . it seems to start later  nand go longer into spring. less snow and warmer temperatures. i remember for many years snow from november to the beginning of march then spring and warmer weather. also , i planned for every january to be under zero so winters are milder but oil and gas prices are MUCH HIGHER. that is probably why i dont care anymore for winter. i wrote earlier that this could be as mild a winter as 2001-2002. have a nice day; ps; did you ever  try to get a job in hawaii; that has to be a dream job for anyone.

If you missed it in my comments in the other blog (about Groundhogs Day) we had more liquid equivalent (rain & snow melted) Friday than we had the entire month of January and I felt all that moisture today shoveling my driveway.  I don't recall a heavier 1" snowfall

jon ch,

It will be hard to top the Winter of 2001-'02 in terms of recent warm winters. The December-February temperature anamolies were +8.5, +10.2, +7.8.  So far this winter we are -.7 and +6.8.

As far as Hawaii is concerned, from a professional stand point I think I would be bored.  I actually enjoy the challenges of the 4 seasons.

Jim