I looked at the seven day forecast and it said that there would be heavy snow in SYR
on saturday. Is that lake effect or a coastal storm?

Tom,  not sure you saw that....we don't see any heavy snow for SYR Saturday.  Maybe a little light snow, and that's it.  

Dave

more snow for us in oswego, oh great like we need anymore

Dave, I would like to know if you can see any change in the forecast in the next week for any kind of winter weather for the syracuse area and south and east of syracuse. I have a new snowblower and dying to try it out  

Update at 11:45--18" of snow since 6 AM in Redfield from our weather watcher there.  Looks like good news for the Tug.

Core of heavy snow has sagged south just a bit, with some light snow in Oswego.  This may continue for the next little bit.  An arctic cold front now just north and west of Lake Ontario will swing down over the lake this afternoon.  This should make the lake snows heavier through the evening over Oswego, Lewis and northern Oneida counties.

Still looks like no appreciable impact here from that lake effect snowband tonight.  Winds are forecast to become northerly and eventually northeasterly and our thinking is that the heavy snow band now over Lake Ontario will move to the south shore of the lake and may weaken some toward Thursday morning.

-Dave

DAVE any snow here in oswego, you did state the most will be in oswego. i live 5 min from the lake ontario.... we dont ned anymore snow here. we just got hammered with that storm that was here over the weekend.. thanks dave

What's with the predicted warm up? How long will it last? Temps holding in the 20's would be GREAT!

Looks like 40's - to maybe close to 50 right into February, which equals no snow, and no ice for ice fishing

but PS - the NAO looks like it might think about tanking after Feb 1st.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Dave - does this look at all promising to you - or just more hype?

I drove north on Rt. 3 this morning from Pulaski to Sandy Creek and couldn't see more than 100 feet in front of the car. So I turned around and headed home. Dangerous stuff up there today!

mchamplin - You're right, the NAO is showing signs of heading into negative territory.  We've been looking a lot at the AO, in particular the ensemble forecasts of the AO.  Check out this link, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif You'll see some members are negative, but there are still some positive members, so bottom line a lot of uncertainty heading toward early Feb.  One thing too, when you check out the PNA, it's trending negative too, so it might be tough to replenish arctic air in North America.  If we do get the block setting up in the central Atlantic, it might have some stale cold air to work with.  We'll see.

I wish I had a vacation home in Florida.  The overwhelming trend is for warmth in the SE US.  Also some much needed rain for ATL.

-Dave

Dave, Florida is not all it's cracked up to be.  Born and raised there, moved after 30 years.  Traffic is horrendous everywhere now and it really does rain at 14:30 every day.  

Seasons are a lot more fun, and evident, up here.  But I can hook you up with a fishing guide or two if you want to head to the Tampa / Sarasota area.

dave are we going to see any snow tonight? oswego. 5 min from lake ontario???? thank you for the update

Dave and the guys, In the discussion section this afternoon you mentioned snow for the southern tier tomorrow afternoon. I will be in albany will that area be effected?

And to say thanks based on the updates I got from you guys I ended up cancelling my trip to Fort Drum for today and it was a smart move 81 was pretty rough today from what I heard!

9:00 PM Update....

The biggest totals we've seen from today are 21" in Lacona and 35" in N. Redfield. The N. Redfield total was from the same person who had 141" last February from the big lake effect outbreak.

Here's is some of our reasoning behind keeping up some of the big snow totals near the lake tonight. While temperatures at 5,000 feet remain unchanged throughout the night, they are cooling at 10,000 feet which makes for a more 'unstable' enviroment (better for clouds to form) and also there is a weak disturbance passing through overnight that should enhance the lift as well.  For those reason we felt the lake snows could stay productive.  The real trick is the wind.  It is dying down which, in theory, would allow the band to migrate back toward the lakeshore.  Our computer models this afternoon hinted at strong convergence (wind colliding down near the surface) along the south shore which is why (even it is only within a few miles of the lake) we extended the area of 12"+ all the way back to Rochester.  

Coffeeguy, anything from the Southern Tier to Albany Thursday will be light, maybe an inch or so and that would be it.  Watch for the wind to pick up a bit in the afternoon, though.

Jim

we want snow we want snow we want snow

Light snow here in O-Hill right now.  Looks to be coming off of Lake Erie??????

Waiting to see if the "big" band makes its way down here later tonight/early tomorrow AM, and if it does, if it has any "juice" left in it.

Thanks Jim for the update!

Forgot to ask you Jim, I read tomorrow there is going to be another shot of cold air coming in, and Dave E. points out that tomorrow night (Thursday nite), lake effect will setup Southeast of the lake.....Any big deal?

I'm looking forward to the 40's next week!

Hi All .. what's your prediction for the rest of the winter season?  Do you see any nor'easters on the horizon?

well at least this year is not anything like last year. This past Sunday nites storm was a rough one. I work in Liverpool and I left work at 12:30 am monday morning and didnt get home into Mexico/New Haven area untill 5am or so. That was after the fact of being stuck of Stewarts Corners Rd. in Pennellville and then getting stuck on CR 64 by OC BOCES. Oh yes one thing, thank you Pennellville VFD for letting me hang out at your station as the storm passed. It was appreciated!!!!

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