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Teske's Tidbits (1/16/08) The One About Winter's Midpoint

We are now into the middle of January, a time that I like to call the mid point of winter.  Whether you consider the months of December through February winter or whether you include November and March as well, January 15th will fall right in the middle.  I thought I would take a moment to take a look back and how the winter is going so far.

 

First, as a reminder, our winter forecast was for above normal temperatures and near normal snowfall.  It was a very fast start for snow.  By December 17th we were already over 52” of snow for the season, a full six weeks ahead of last winter’s pace. Then the spickets turned off.  Since that point we’ve had about 6” of snow and we are now actually close to normal in seasonal snowfall.

 

With all the snow early in the season our temperatures, not surprisingly, were below normal as well. But a mild stretch from late December and early January has pushed the average above normal.  Overall since December first we are around 3 and a half degrees above normal for the winter as a whole.

 

So although we seem to be close to our winter forecast so far I think everyone will agree it has been full of extremes over the last 2 months.  Whenever we do make those seasonal forecasts we do look to see if we can find some of those extremes (snowy start, record January warmth)  within the winter season but this time around there were no signals to point to one part of the winter being snowier or warmer than any other.

 

Meanwhile, the Lake Effect Challenge has been sputtering the last few weeks since I haven’t had to mention ‘lake effect’ much on Y 94.  We are at $16.50 for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society.  However, it looks like we will be hearing the ‘cha ching” noise a bit in the next week. We are now under 1 month (29 days) until pitchers and catchers report and Dave Longley reminds me there are only 32 days until the Daytona 500.

 

Published Wednesday, January 16, 2008 2:03 PM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

NorthBayLight said:

I mentioned in a previous post -- I remember January last year being very similar to this year. Although we didnt get the December snow last year like we did this year, I'm still anxious to see what February has in store -- and March for that matter. Remember that we had snow on Easter Sunday last year.
I guess I'm just being an optimistic snow lover...although, in CNY, the rarely ever get away with 'a little' snow during the Winter.....we'll see what happens!!!!

Let it snowwww!!
January 16, 2008 8:31 PM
 

OSU Student said:

What's Up Storm Team,
            Its been pretty quite around here as of lete wrt LES and for that matter synoptic induced snowfall.  We've had some niusence snows on and off but nothing that has amounted to much at all.  Yeah December was pretty spectacular as far as snow goes but we've been in a drought here as of late but that will change here pretty soon at least for some areas of CNY.  I sure nobody can help but notice the Arctic Plunge that's about to take place and of course, we all know what that comes with.  That's right Lake Effect a word that hasn't been mentioned much.  This will change come Saturday evening and I believe it will last through at least monday evening here in the immediate CNY area.  I've been keeping a close eye on the situation because after all that's what I do but things are starting to look interesting to say the least!!  Bufkit profiles indicate after an initial wind trajectory favoring counties due East of Lake Ontario a wind shift should come thru sometime saturday evening if not a bit later.  That is one thing I've been noticing, there's been a tendency to hold off on the passage of the true Arctic front by a coupkle of hours but nonetheless its on its way.  Once the wind shift is made we look to be in prolonged LES situation an a 290-300 wind flow aloft give or take a few degrees.  With temps approaching >-20C at 850mb as well as EQ values between 13,000-15,000 at the height of the event and CAPE ( Convective Available Potential Energy)values exceeding 1400 which promote THUNDER!! this is starting to look amazing!!!  Yeah last years event was a blockbuster but I don't think the values for all the parameters became that extreme like this one.  So to sum up what I think will occur is that lake effect will get going some time on Saturday ENE of the lake then once the wind shift comes thru it should bodily push the the band south and everyone gets in on the action with probably a dusting to as much as 2".  If the whole band doesn't shift south like I just mentioned then it will slowly shift south and reorientate itself on a WNW flow favoring areas just north of KSYR probably just north of the Thruway ( As usual).  It should stay quasi stationary but I would not be surprised if there are a few SW's that come thru and disrupt the flow.  That's what I will be looking for in the coming days with the MM5 and the HIRESWRF coming into the time frame of this event.  I'm sure you guys will cover this event very well just like you do all the others.  

P.S, If this band becomes as intense as I think it will don't be surprised early Sunday morning while enjoying your cup of Java that you hear some claps of THUNDER!!!  This could last throughout the day with CAPE levels like that!!!
January 16, 2008 11:50 PM
 

Chrismathews said:

Thanks for that interesting view OSU Student.  Heavy lake effect for sunday and early monday.  But after Monday afternoon, it shuts down.    
January 17, 2008 7:55 AM
 

Mike3 said:

Hey Chrismathews.  I just looked at the forecast for sunday night and it looks like the wind direction will be out of the west instead of the nw like it would during the day sunday.  Wouldn't that lift the lake effect out of the syracuse area and up to oswego area?  What do you think News Channel 9.
Thanks.
January 17, 2008 8:13 AM
 

acjagz said:

Let it SNOW !!!!! Sad part is that as much as I want it to snow and snow a lot, should we (or the Hill) get hammered, everyone and their brother will be up there riding. Watch for a increase of sledding accidents. Cripe we've already had what 10-11 fatals so far in 1 (ONE) month !!!! Not to mention the minor ones.

Might have to fire up the tractor just to charge the battery up. Off the subject, but what happened to Heather Hedgedus (sp)?
January 17, 2008 9:36 AM
 

snplw said:

acjagz, I was wondering the same about Heather.  I did a search and she moved on back to Ct.  Hartford to be exact.
January 17, 2008 10:55 AM
 

jon ch said:

please give up predicting noreasters for central ny ; you blew it for the last two . despite the winter business people and skiers you promote snow for; how about the senior citizens not as highly paid or well to do like you, more survive when the weather is lee inclement ; also less lethal accidents on the road. warmer temperatres equal lower gas and electric bills ; these are the good things that people want to see; all the snow fanatics; hey, move to minnesota, or wisconsin or canada ; you get all the snow you and cold weather you love so much.
January 18, 2008 12:22 PM
 

NorthBayLight said:

I typically dont include myself in comments back to the snow-haters but here goes.
jon_ch -- if you dont like it here....move down south. The weather in CNY is what it is ..... us snow lovers obviously live here for a reason. We expect the high heat costs...accidents....etc. We adjust to that by prepaying for heating oil or buying SUV's. We learn to deal.
I'd rather deal with snow than tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.
Save the judgement for other forums....the Storm Team does a fantastic job predicting what they can of the unpredictable weather in the area.
I'm done.... :-)

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