Weather Discussion : Waiting on the Cold

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Waiting on the Cold

Posted by Dave Longley - 3 PM Monday - Well, we got our nor'easter, it just didn't affect us. NYC is wondering where there snow is. 6.8" at Logan Airport in Boston, with the highest total I saw 14.5" in Worcester county. For more head to NWSBOS site at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box

A little light snow for us. There's a convergence zone over us this afternoon that will in one way or another hang over us tonight, before making a decided shift southwestward Tuesday. It's not a great setup, but temperatures up around 5000 feet (850mb) are just cold enough for some input from Lake Ontario, so we think 1 to 4 inches of snow are possible tonight southeast of Lake Ontario, including SYR. It'll be a wet snow, with overnight lows not getting much below freezing.

Improving weather is expected midweek, before things get cranked up later Thursday. It looks like we'll have another storm on our hands Thursday night/Friday. The evolution of that storm is still in question, but a quick hit of snow (few inches) are possible Thursday night.

Behind it we turn cold. How cold and how fast are the questions of the day. The GFS has been alone in surging the arctic air in here during the day Saturday. That was tied to some differences in it's Thursday night storm. At one point, we had 850mb temperatures around -27C by Saturday night over us. Temps like that would keep our temps in the single digits Sunday. The ECMWF wasn't quite as cold, and now the GFS has tempered that cold some. We should get into some lake effect Sunday, and it'll be cold, but we're still fine tuning just how cold.

What's even more amazing, is how quickly the air will modify and we could see temperatures near to even above normal by mid next week! We're got a pretty tight baroclinic zone forecast over us, and the distance between bitter arctic air and mild springlike air isn't going to be all that much. Needless to say, don't be surprised to see some wild swings in the weather over the next couple of weeks, and some potentially wild weather. It should be fun to watch.

-Dave Longley

Published Monday, January 14, 2008 2:59 PM by dlongley

Comments

	Shawn said: Jim--Do you think Thursday Night/Friday possible storm has a better chance of hitting SYR? January 14, 2008 3:05 PM
	dlongley said: Shawn, just checked the 18Z GFS before heading to bed. I don't see Thursday night/Friday's storm being a huge snowmaker for us. That storm will have a lot of precip along the Gulf coast, but as it lifts north, at least right now, is forecast to come at us in two chunks. One along the east coast, and another that lifts north just to our west. Neither one looks to be super strong so I don't think we'll warm enough to see rain, but I don't see a significant snowfall either. More of the same that we've seen this winter, the northern and southern branches of the jet stream not playing along together. More tomorrow. Good night all. January 14, 2008 5:49 PM
	Shawn said: Thank you Dave. I guess I'm trying to find a time this week where we actually could get some "plowable" snow!!! Keep up the good work you guys January 14, 2008 9:02 PM
	Jim Teske said: 11:30 PM update.... I agree with Dave that it doesn't look like a big storm for us this Thursday Night/Friday. In addition to coming at us in two chunks the storm is a) moving real fast and 2) it strengthens the most after it is already to our north and east. That being said I think there should be several inches of accumulating snow Thursday night. This would be a widespread snow over all of Central New York. After that the lake effect starts. It looks like due east of Lake Ontario late Friday into Saturday. The coldest air will make it in here by Sunday but there are questions as to whether it will stick around beyond next week. A couple of the indicies we look at for long range forecasts are not real favorable for cold weather toward the end of the month of January. The AO goes positive and the PNA index goes negative. If you like cold, snowy weather you usually like those indices flipped. We shall see. Jim January 14, 2008 10:36 PM
	Shawn said: Good morning Dave. Thanks for the update last night before you went to bed! Just a note to say thank you and have a good day! I'm hoping for some snow! January 15, 2008 1:38 AM
	acjagz said: Coming home the other morning, I turned on the NWS radio and was very surprised as to what I heard. They were calling for windchill readings in the -100 degree range!!! Not sure I heard them right, I listened for it to repeat and sure enough, that's what they said. As for us snow lovers who want it for plowing, skiing, snowmobiling, snow days, what have you. Your prognoses isn't what we wanted to hear. On vacation the last week of Jan in the hopes to go snowmobiling, but not looking very promising at this point in time. Hope all the dealers can continue to hang in there. How about a story on snowmobile dealers in Madison, Onondaga, Oswego, counties as to how the weather is affecting their business? Was a story last winter about ski resorts asking for aid due to low snow conditions. But sled dealers did not ask for any. Or isn't the fact that snowmobilers contribute a significant amount of money to New Yorks economy newsworthy? Sorry for the rant. I just want to ride. Keep up the good work fellas. ACZL January 15, 2008 3:20 AM
	Mike said: Shawn-I thought plowers dislike snow. Maybe a suggestion to switch to seasonal plowing vs per event. Snowmobilers, why dont you pack up the equipment and head north? January 15, 2008 3:34 AM
	fiske said: How far into the future will the models forecast. Do you have any ideas on what February is going to be like as far as cold and snow. Just curious. Thanks January 15, 2008 3:38 AM
	dlongley said: Update at 6:30 AM Tuesday - Everything pretty much status quo. I talked earlier of the system coming in Thursday night/Friday. Taking a look at temperatures with that thing, it's possible we could see some rain mix in Friday morning. We will get a dry slot over us Friday, so much of the day should be quiet. West southwest winds in the boundary layer and 850mb temperatures around -14C by day's end could mean some lake snows east of Lake Ontario on the Tug. Saturday we've got an area of low pressure (probably caused by the heating of the Great Lakes) tied to the arctic cold front. Saturday probably won't be too bad of a day, with some light snow. The real cold is forecast to arrive Sunday. Highs look to be in the teens. There should be some lake effect, but still a bit early to get too specific. Dave January 15, 2008 5:31 AM
	Kathy said: Dave/Jim - we have a school ski field trip coming up next Friday, the 25th, at Togg. Will it be warm enough in the middle of the week to hurt our chances for some good skiing? Hope not! January 15, 2008 9:02 AM
	Looking for snow said: Dave/Jim - also wondering about this warm up you mentioned later next week will it be another record breaker or just semi mild weather?????. Is there really any big storms in the long range feature with snow???. Looking at my new snowmobile sit in the garage collecting dust is getting really sickning as much as i love snowmobiling the way this weather has been lately im already looking forward to the warmer months and getting out on the golf course. Dave L i see your Dad out on the golf course at griffins green all the time in the summer looks like he is a pretty good golfer but i think i could take him LOL. January 15, 2008 9:42 AM
	Jim Teske said: 1:30 PM Tuesday Update.....I'm just starting to digest the midday data and one thing sticks out about our Thursday night/Friday: we could be warm enough for rain to mix in! That will certainly hurt our chances for accumulating snow. The leading edge of the true arctic air probably won't arrive until late Saturday. That's why we've bumped up Saturday's high in our 7 day forecast. Kathy, I think it will be cold enough next Friday (Jan 25th). In fact, there are signs that a reinforcing shot of arctic air will arrive in the time frame of Jan 24-26th. Good news for snowlovers, the AO (which I said yesterday wants to go positive toward the end of the month) looks like it will take a turn downward around the first of February. I certainly can't give you any details about what that means but it would be good for skiers and snowmobilers if that took place. Jim January 15, 2008 12:21 PM
	Kathy said: Thanks, Jim! The kids will be happy!! January 15, 2008 1:08 PM
	Mike W. said: Dear, Dave When are we going to get some serious snow? My Polaris is collecting dust and I'm having some doubts that there will be any ridable snow at all? Is there any big snow in the forecast coming up in the next week two. We need some snow people!! January 15, 2008 5:34 PM
	let it snow...Oswego,NY said: i hear ya Mike i want it to snow too...this winter has been to nice so far so i assuming it will get bad end of this month or begining of Feb...just hopefully not as bad as last year...LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW...i want some lake effect and a nor'easter to give us some good snow...we paid to get our drive way plowed for teh year and am begining to believe we paid 75 dollars for nothing. January 15, 2008 7:51 PM
	Shawn said: UGH! Thursday nights system will be warm enough for rain????????????? Not looking good for snow lovers. I'm starting to feel a little guilty for my plowing customers. Most all of them are contracts, and I really haven't done ANY plowing other than the 1st two weeks of December. Anyway, maybe Jim will give us some good news for snow lovers! January 15, 2008 9:04 PM
	NorthBayLight said: Glad to hear that we have some snow in forecast!! Gotta get our moneys worth on the snowmobile registrations and insurance!!! I remember a certain January that was pretty simular to this (say last year!!!) and we all remember how February turned out.... LET IT SNOWWWWWW...... 'Til then....stay warm! January 15, 2008 9:56 PM
	boggiejr said: I have to take my daughters back to college this weekend. Does it look like the lake effect will be bad or is it just a few flurries? I have one heading to Potsdam and the other to Cobleskill. January 16, 2008 7:28 AM
	Mike3 said: Question for Dave L or Jim T? After the low passes us by Saturday, I see the lake effect starting. You posted in the forecast for some heavier lake effect southeast of the lake. The models are showing the heavier lake effect way west of syracuse (Buffalo and surrounding) dark green and over syracuse light green. The air will be passing over the narrow part of the lake. High pressure builds in monday afternoon shutting the lake effect off. Is there something i'm not seeing because it looks like only 3-5 inches for syracuse for sunday and monday? January 16, 2008 8:46 AM
	Bonnie said: What is your forecast for wind chills this weekend? I've never heard of -100 in this area... January 16, 2008 1:02 PM
	Name said: ^ 3-5 inches is heavy snow for us lately. Haha January 16, 2008 1:02 PM
	Jim Teske said: 8:30 PM Wednesday update.... First, acjagz it sounds like the weather radio was spouting off some erroneous information the other day. -100 windchill is something I would expect on top of Mt. Washington not here in Syracuse. In our most extreme cases here we are -30 or -40. Figuring we will be in the teens Sunday, even a 60 mph would only get us to about -20 here in Syracuse. More realistic -10 to -20. Mike3, it sounds like you are using the precipitation plots right from the models. While they are a good estimation for widespread (or synoptic) events, I would steer away from them during lake effect events. While they may have a good idea on placement of lake effect they may be way off on how much snow falls. When forecasting lake effect snow, we like to get a good idea of how intense the snow is going to be (1, 2 inches an hour) then figure out how the band is going to move before starting to come up with snow accumulations. Having been in the area a long time and using pattern recognition (similar set ups from the past) help as well. At that point we might then use the model precipitation (qpf) to fine tune things a bit. Name, we were just commenting in the office about snow totals at our own house. Dave Eichorn said (with a gleem in his eye) he has 3/4" Tuesday. I said that's a sad statement to be excited about that much snow in mid January. boggiejr, the best estimation about the lake effect is that it will start east of Lake Ontario late Friday then shift north toward Watertown sometime Friday night or early Saturday. Later Saturday the squalls should start to head south and could be near the Syracuse area by Saturday night. It's a little hard to say how much snow will fall at this early point (take note Shawn ;). I will say, though, the core of the coldest air aloft doesn't get down over us until Saturday night. That's all for now. Jim January 16, 2008 7:57 PM
	Shawn said: Oh come on now Jim. How you gonna call me out like that (LOL)!!!!!! Knowing how hard it is to forecast Lake Effect snow, I wouldn't ask you how much snow we are going to get that far away. I only do that for possible Coastal Storms ;-).!!!!! Anyway, I can't begin to tell you and Dave how much I and I'm sure everyone appreciates you guys doing this blog. This is something extra you guys do for us and it is great! I don't even have a question for you......Hmmmmm.......You are probably a little shocked! Lol. Keep up the great work! January 16, 2008 9:09 PM

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Weather Discussion

Waiting on the Cold

Comments

Shawn said:

dlongley said:

Shawn said:

Jim Teske said:

Shawn said:

acjagz said:

Mike said:

fiske said:

dlongley said:

Kathy said:

Looking for snow said:

Jim Teske said:

Kathy said:

Mike W. said:

let it snow...Oswego,NY said:

Shawn said:

NorthBayLight said:

boggiejr said:

Mike3 said:

Bonnie said:

Name said:

Jim Teske said:

Shawn said:

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