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Weather Discussion

Arctic Air Makes a Return

Posted by Dave Longley - January 2, 2007 - An impressive surge of arctic air will make for bitter cold weather for the next couple of days.  We expect temperatures only in the low teens, with wind chill temperatures within a few degrees of zero.

If you're not a fan of the cold, there is an end in sight, which might make it a bit easier to endure.  The deep trough, or dip in the jet stream over us now, will be replaced by a ridge of warmth in the jet stream, that could get our temperatures back up into the 50s by early next week.  A bona fide January thaw.  (I'm sure Teske has some numbers on that)

This arctic air is taking no prisoners.  They have hard freeze warnings as far south as Floriday, with Orlando expected to dip down into the mid 20s by Thursday morning!  There were flurries yesterday just north of Atlanta.

For us, we deal not only with the cold, but the lake effect snow.  Winds are pretty northerly, which means the cold air is crossing the narrow axis of Lake Ontario, cutting back on its ability to pick up moisture.  Also, the ambient air upwind of the lake is bone dry, so this stuff will struggle through today.  The lake effect will get a little help from an upper level disturbance, that will arrive this evening and could briefly "juice up" the lake snows.  Behind that feature, the winds will get pretty northerly again, and everything should taper to flurries Thursday.  Lake effect snows should come to an end entirely by Thursday night, with a gradual moderation in temperatures carrying us into the weekend.

 

 

Published Wednesday, January 02, 2008 9:23 AM by dlongley

Comments

 

Tom2 said:

Any thoughts on the duration of the thaw? What is anticpated behind that for the middle/end of January?
January 2, 2008 11:28 AM
 

Let it snow said:

I don't really want to see a thaw of any kind. I second Tom2's questions. Is there any hope we could dodge that much of a warm up by next week?
January 2, 2008 12:34 PM
 

Plowguy said:

I'm with Tom2 and Let it snow.  Finally a good base on the snowmobile trails. the warmth is nice but i'd like to ride.
January 2, 2008 1:44 PM
 

Mike said:

I see there is a Wind Chill Advisory in effect until 11am Thursday for Oswego County. Brr!!! Wind chills 10 to 19 degrees below zero!!! Perhaps a delay for schools...?
January 2, 2008 3:01 PM
 

malone said:

Alright Dave.  Practically the entire south shore of Lake Ontario was under a Winter Storm Warning originally for today for Lake effect snow which obviously never materialized in any real magnitude. What did you guys miss?. Even with the short fetch I would have expected more than this with it as cold as it is. Just curious as to what ingredient did not take place....not complaining though.
January 2, 2008 3:17 PM
 

LordOfTheSith said:

Is this winter or spring????? My lord, my plow is begging for some snow!
January 2, 2008 3:51 PM
 

MADISON COUNTY VIEWER said:

What would you expect the wind-chill temperature to be in Southern Madison County? Could we expect any school delays or closings for the children tomorrow? How much snow could we expect?
January 2, 2008 3:54 PM
 

Molly said:

COLD COLD COLD!  How long will the thaw last next week?  
January 2, 2008 4:25 PM
 

Samantha said:

I cannot believe we're going from 10 degrees to almost 60 degrees in a matter of days. What is up with the extreme temp fluctuations?!
January 2, 2008 4:35 PM
 

Zach said:

Looking over the NAO, I see it goes negative around the 16th. Could this represent a major winter storm for us here in the Northeast as temperatures will be below freezing by that time again?
January 2, 2008 7:11 PM
 

Mike S said:

Samantha: Take a look at Orlando, FL. They might be getting OES (Ocean Effect Snow) after hitting 84 on Sunday!

Good thing we're pushing school closings, as if last year proved, schools will save money, even if the fuel gels.
January 2, 2008 8:26 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

I see there are lots of questions.  For now I'll just try to address the more immediate ones.  Lake effect is trying to get going again.  The big question is what is going to win out the very cold air aloft or the dry air.  We figured that to some extent the cold air aloft would win and cause at least a few 5 or 6" totals west of Syracuse.  As of 10 PM I see the radar has flared up so we'll see.

Outside of Cayuga, western Onondaga and parts of Tompkins and Cortland Counties there will be little accumulation tonight.  East of the main area of lake effect there are lots of single digits already and all it will take is a bit of wind tomorrow morning to push windchills below -10.

Keep warm...

Jim
January 2, 2008 9:06 PM
 

acjagz said:

I too agree with the first few posters in regards to snow, low temps and snowmobile trails. I'm off at end of month in anticipation of riding along with a friend of mine from Albany. Need snow!!! Was up on Tug Hill over this past w/e and trails were very bumpy and large water holes to boot. Plenty of snow, but got way too saturated with all the rain last week and groomers cannot make the trails smooth with warm temps.

ACZL
January 3, 2008 3:21 AM
 

dlongley said:

10:30 AM Thursday...

malone....just a quick thing on the forecast earlier this week.  I think the weather service was a bit nervous given the push of arctic air and the strong winds Tuesday night/Wednesday.  The biggest snow total I saw was 7 inches from our weather watcher in Savannah

As for the warmup, I know it's incredible and almost a little unbelievable, but everything we look at strongly supports this warmup.  A big snowstorm slamming into the western US will cut up to our west, and turn our winds into the south.  The cold air that's pressing all the way south into Florida is arctic in origin, so that means it's dry and will warm up quickly.  The thing that will make or break the mid or upper 50 degree forecast is whether we get precipitation and if a front goes through to disrupt the southerly winds.

Of course, the obvious question, as has been asked, is how long will the meltdown last?  At least through mid next week.  I saw mention of the NAO.  Teske and I just looked at the current teleconnection forecast at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/verf/new.teleconnections.shtml and we didn't see any indication of any significant set up to prolonged cold.  The AO goes negative around the 14th/15th, but only briefly.  It starts going back toward neutral after that.  The general trend of the NAO, PNA is near neutral overall.

So what does this mean.  Well, I can tell you that looking at the maps into the 10 - 16 day period, the jet stream remains very energetic across the lower 48 with some strong storms.  After next week's warmup, the warm air isn't pushed all that far away, so while these storms have a lot of moisture with them, the air isn't all that cold, so we'll be dealing with more rain vs. snow forecasts.

Hopefully we end up with a compromise.  Some snow for the snow lovers, but no true arctic air like we have now.

Dave Longley
January 3, 2008 9:42 AM
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