Posted by Dave Longley, 9:30 AM, Tuesday 12/11/2007 - Okay, let's get it on. All of our medium range models have come together in indicating a major snowstorm for the Northeast and central New York for this weekend. Is it going to happen? Who knows at this early point, it is only Tuesday, but this one's going to be fun to watch. It's especially better because it's a weekend, when many of us can stay safe and sound at home and watch it snow. I'll keep this thread going into the weekend, and continue individual posts for individual days. Let's have some fun with this.
Okay, here's the setup. Yesterday, the ECMWF (computer model run by the European weather agency) was the only model to really latch onto an east coast storm. Actually it started indicating this over the weekend. The other models (GFS, UKMET) were flatter with the storm. In other words, it never turned the corner with the low once it formed in the southeast US, and it moved it harmlessly off to our southeast, into the western Atlantic.
Monday's midday (18Z) run of the GFS indicated maybe the ECMWF was right after all. Each successive run of the GFS has been spot on, indicating a very strong area of low pressure near NYC Sunday. (actually central MA at 7 PM Sunday) The ECMWF has stayed in its camp, indicating a strong low near Cape Cod at 7 PM Sunday. The computer models run by the Canadians have the low over Connecticut. Needless to say, there's lots of support for a deep low in the Northeast come Sunday. At this point, we need to be in the mindset that this is going to happen.
So, when does it start? Saturday would be cold (20s for highs) with some lake effect snow. Widespread snow from the storm would move in Saturday night and continue through Sunday. The wind will pick up Saturday night/Sunday and as colder air gets sucked in, lake effect snow will start to kick in during the day Sunday and Sunday night. Right now (Tuesday morning) Sunday looks to be the worse day.
How much? Taking the model output verbatim, the potential exists for more than 2 feet of snow . THIS IS NOT A FORECAST, BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL OF THIS STORM. We won't get into specifics until we get much closer to the storm (remember, it's still possible that this thing may 1) may miss us and 2) not even form. )
Anyway, the new data is coming in. We'll see what happens. I'm sure I'll be checking back in this afternoon.
Questions or comments, please feel free to leave them. I will not get into the business of forecasting individual snowfall amounts for specific locations. We'll give you the big picture, and you can go from there.
Also, don't forget we have a chance for a few inches of snow Thursday from a whole separate storm.
