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Weather Discussion

Quick Weather Changes Friday Evening

Posted By Jim Teske 1:45 PM Friday November 30th

It's hard to believe as I look out my window this afternoon with sunshine and 40 degree weather that winter weather is only 4 or 5 hours away.  Here is the set up:

A cold front has moved as far east as Toronto early this Friday afternoon and will move through Central New York this evening.  The front itself doesn't have a lot moisture with it but it is going to get help from Lake Erie and Ontario. Already on the radars a band of lake effect precipitation off both lakes is showing up.  The cold front will take this precipitation with it as it swings through Central New York.  Sometime around 6 or 7 PM we should start to see some precipitation. It may start as some rain but it would quickly change to snow. It could snow quite hard for 15 to 20 minutes as the front comes through. We may only see a dusting to an inch as this happens but it will happen in a short period of time and we would also be dropping below freezing causing roads to ice up. Gusty winds around this time will also mean blowing snow.

After the front goes through it's back into lake effect snow for a short time. For about 4 or 5 hours later this evening the wind will be out of the west putting squalls over Oswego and Oneida Counties.  However, close to or a little after midnight a switch in the winds to the northwest will bodily move the squalls down through Syracuse before dying off over the Finger Lakes close to sunrise Saturday. Right now we are going with 1-4" over much of Central New York but as Mark Chapin alluded to during the Noon show there could be some 5 or 6" totals, probably over Oswego or Oneida Counties where the band stays the longest.

I have painted a pretty gloomy picture for this evening if you have plans however, hopefully you will be able to plan around these weather changes a little better.  For example, if you out shopping or dining here in Syracuse you may want to get to your destination by 5 or 6 PM and that way by the time you are done that initial burst of snow is done as well.  There will be some blowing snow around after 8 PM but there will be a lull in the falling snow here in Syracuse. Just take it easy on the roads and plan on using extra time .  Of course it will be a different story to the north of Syracuse where the lake effect squalls will set up first.

As the evening wears on let us know how that burst of snow impacts your neck of the woods.

By the way, stay tuned to us here on the web and on TV as another important storm heads our way for Sunday with a mix of precipitation.
Published Friday, November 30, 2007 1:25 PM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

cab7086 said:

Thanks Jim!  I was planning on traveling to Camden tonight and I don't think I will be doing that!
November 30, 2007 1:34 PM
 

dlongley said:

Just a quick update and heads up...Dave Eichorn and I are looking at the radar and there is one burst of snow already moving into Rochester as of 3 PM and that could be here a little ahead of schedule, perhaps closer to 5 or 6 PM.  This may not be the main burst of snow I was talking about before.  The true front is still just west of Buffalo so we might have a couple of bursts of snow this evening.

Jim
November 30, 2007 1:58 PM
 

tom f said:

the wind currents dont indicate your forecast; as usual, you are a promoter of snow and disaster; more senior citizens die in the winter time than the summertime; more accidents on the road ; more children die in thi swonderful snow that you promote and inaccurately give to the public. 35 years ago, without computers and dopplers, the weather forecasters were much more accurate and sympathetic to the citizens affected more seriously. 70 percent of people here cant afford thre heat bills or gas bills. i think you could be more accurate and less enthusiastic if you used more reference to older and astrological planetary movement ; my books and forecast are more accurate
November 30, 2007 2:06 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

Just a quick 6 PM update....that first area of precipitation came through Syracuse.  It was a mix of rain and snow.  it knocked us down to 35.

The actual cold is now stretching from the Adirondacks southwestward through Oswego County.  Some thunder and lightning with it. Look for the front to come through around 7 PM here in Syracuse, probably around 8 PM Ithaca, Cortland and Norwich.

Jim
November 30, 2007 5:04 PM
 

pjsullivan said:

I was surprised to see a flash of light outdoors at 6:30, but heard the thunder shortly after- it was probably 3 miles north of Caughdenoy.
November 30, 2007 5:41 PM
 

WSYR Fan said:

In Southern Madison County, At 8:00 PM, Visibiltily was poor and it was snowing heavily, blowing and drifting of snow also.
November 30, 2007 7:13 PM
 

WSYR Fan said:

Also, What can we expect from this storm Saturday Night into Sunday into Monday and with the Lake Effect Tuesday? What could we expect in Southern Madison County? How much snow could we see?
November 30, 2007 7:15 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

8 PM update...thanks for the updates so far. Besides the reports listed here we did gets some calls about some thunder in Williamstown (Oswego County) and white out conditions around 6 PM in Phoenix.

The front has made it through Syracuse and continues to press to the south.  As is typical behind strong cold fronts int he winter, there is a bit of a 'lull' before the lake effect kicks in.  I'm seeing evidence that the lull may not last much longer.  The latest satellite picture shows Lake Ontario is filling in with clouds.  I'm thinking this is the start of band that will initially set up over Oswego and Oneida Counties overthe next hour or two.

Jim
November 30, 2007 7:20 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

10:40 PM update...What a difference 2 and a half hours can make! When I updated you last time there was very little in the way of lake effect on the radar screen and now it has filled up north of Syracuse. It's not a solid band of heavy snow more like burst of heavier snow surrounded by lighter snow.

The radar looks a lot like our computer models were indicating earlier in the day so that gives us more confidence that the band will be shifting south over the next few hours.

Jim
November 30, 2007 9:41 PM
 

SteveH said:

It is a frigid one today!  After over 4 yrs of living in CNY I've come to expect drastic weather changes like yesterday, but I can't remember a colder day in the end of Nov beginning of Dec!  We received 2.2" of snow here in Tully.  The current temp (1:22PM) is 15.9 F and it has been consistently falling since midnight which was the high I recorded (24.4 F).  Looking forward to seeing the details unfold with this upcoming storm.  Hoping for more snow, as I'm trying to get out XC-skiing next week!
December 1, 2007 12:33 PM
 

Rachel said:

I live in Florence (between Camden & Redfield) & We have (as of Thursday Dec. 6 @ 7am) about 11 to 12 niches of lake effect snow! Can't you make it go away?????? =)
December 6, 2007 12:06 PM
 

www 9wsyr com said:

May 9, 2008 1:19 AM
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