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Weather Discussion

Wintry Mix Before The Rain

Posted By Jim Teske (8:15 PM Sunday November 25th 2007)

We've been tracking an area of precipitation across the Ohio Valley Sunday and it is now headed toward Central New York. Here is the Northeast composite radar as of about 8:10 PM:

The arrival of this precipitation would be close to midnight and I phrase it as 'precipitation' because there should be a wintry mix for parts of Central New York. 

The air over us is very dry so even though we were able to warm into the mid 40s this afternoon with sunshine once that sun set our temperatures plummeted into the 30s.  Here is a look at the observations as of 8 PM Sunday:

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALBANY         MOCLDY    33  18  53 S6        30.21R WCI  28
GLENS FALLS    PTCLDY    27  23  85 CALM      30.19S
POUGHKEEPSIE   PTCLDY    30  23  75 CALM      30.25F
NEWBURGH       PTCLDY    37  19  48 SW7       30.26F WCI  32
MONTGOMERY     CLEAR     32  22  66 CALM      30.24S
WHITE PLAINS   CLEAR     39  23  52 CALM      30.26F
ISLIP          CLEAR     42  32  67 SW5       30.28S
NEW YORK CITY  PTCLDY    47  26  44 SW8       30.28S
CENTRAL PARK   CLEAR     47  25  42 VRB5      30.30S
$$


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FULTON         PTCLDY    31  22  69 CALM      30.14R
SYRACUSE       MOCLDY    37  17  44 CALM      30.16R
ROME           PTCLDY    29  23  78 CALM      30.19S
ELMIRA         MOCLDY    29  22  75 CALM      30.15F
BINGHAMTON     CLOUDY   N/A N/A N/A S9        30.17S
MONTICELLO     PTCLDY    36  16  44 SW6       30.22F WCI  31

Take note of the DP column. It  means dew point which is a way to measure the amount of moisture in the air. With readings in the teens and low 20s that means the air is dry and we can cool farther once precipitation starts. Earlier I was thinking cloud cover and wind might keep us from dropping too far in Syracuse so mostly rain would fall with the greatest threat for freezing rain and snow would be east of Syracuse.  I'm not so sure now. The clouds have slowed our tempertature drop a bit but we are in the mid 30s and our wind is calm. The good news is a) the system causing the mixed precipitation is weakening as it moves east and b) it should be moving to our east around daybreak so the precipitation should taper off a bit for the morning commute.

I'll be watching temperatures and wind very closely over the next few hours and I'll have an update as to whether Syracuse will get into the mixed precipitation on the 11 PM show on NewsChannel 9.

Published Sunday, November 25, 2007 8:02 PM by Jim Teske

Comments

 

karloss9400 » Wintry Mix Before The Rain said:

PingBack from http://karloss9400.consulting23.info/2007/11/25/wintry-mix-before-the-rain/
November 25, 2007 8:38 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

10 PM update...The wind has kicked in!  It's only 8 mph at the airport in Syracuse but that has made a big difference.  We rose 5 degrees in 1 hour (from 36-41) and temperatures were close to 40 all the way back across the Finger Lakes. Now that the wind has picked up it should remain steady for much of the night so from Syracuse west any wintry precipitation should be minimal.  We're still concerned about freezing rain and snow east of Syracuse. Places like Utica/Rome, Oneida, Morrisville, Norwich, Lowville and Sherburne.

Some good news for those of you worried about any snow or ice for the commute: the back edge of the steady precipitation is approaching the east end of Lake Erie.  That means the steadiest precipitation may be out of here (Syracuse area) by about 5 AM.

Gotta get these changes into the 11 PM forecast so I have to run. See you on the tube at 11 PM.

Jim
November 25, 2007 9:17 PM
 

Jim Teske said:

Midnight update...Still just rain outside our studios here in East Syracuse. Most reporting stations in the area responded to the increase in southerly wind and had rising temperatures late in the evening. I am concerned that there could be a quick inch or two of snow over higher elevations south of syracuse.  I did get a report of moderate snow in Tully. There are bright colors (high reflectivities) on the radar which or indicative of wet snow. Don't be surprised if you get an inch or two over higher elevations south of Route 20 in the next couple of hours.

I'm becoming more confident that this precip is going to be a non issue for the commute.  The back edge is now to Buffalo and our rule of thumb is what ever is happening in Buffalo is usually about 3 hours away from us here is Syracuse.  I see this precipitation winding down in the 3-4 AM timeframe in Syracuse ( a little later to the east) with maybe just some drizzle around as you head out to work.

Have a good night....

Jim

November 25, 2007 10:58 PM
 

Mike S (Port Leyden) said:

Anything on tonights Oswego / Lewis LES?
November 26, 2007 11:17 AM
 

Jim Teske said:

Mike,

I think you may be talking about Tuesday nights lake effect. I can see several inches of snow falling tomorrow evening but I can't get too excited about a big snowfall because the winds will be shifting after midnight, eventually becoming northerly by morning.  That means your window of opportunity for accumulating snow may be confined to a 4-6 hour period.  We'll have more on specific forecasted snow totals during tomorrow's shows.  Stay tuned...

Jim
November 26, 2007 5:58 PM
 

Mike S said:

Thanks Jim. I'm all messed up on my days.
November 26, 2007 8:10 PM
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