Posted by Jim Teske (Saturday November 24 9:00 PM) An area of low pressure headed northeast through New York State with rain followed by snow.  Stop me if this sounds familiar. We went through this process at the end of last week and looks like we are going to repeat it again early next week.

There is a storm in the upper atmosphere currently moving east from the Four Corners area of the Southwest into west Texas. It's already a potent system. I just saw a special statement about heavy snow expected in west Texas of all places.

This storm in the upper atmosphere will spawn an area of low pressure down at the ground over the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday and the low will track northeast after that.  Coming out of the Gulf will mean this storm has plenty of moisture to work with.  One of our biggest questions is how quickly will this moisture (ie precipitation) moves north. A couple (but not all) of our computer models say that the leading edge of the moisture could be here by daybreak Monday. That could pose a problem as temperatures won't have a chance to warm from the Sunday overnight lows.  There could be some spotty freezing rain or sleet if that scenario unfolds.  Right now, we think a slower arrival is the more likely scenario with temperatures in the upper 30s and rain at the start

Low pressure by Monday evening should be close to Central New York, tracking over the southern part of New York state(near Binghamton).  Here is what one of our computer models (the US-run GFS) is aying for around midnight Monday night:

While This might now get Central New York into a true 'warm sector' we might actually see our temperatures rise early Monday evening as the low gets closer to us. The mid 40s high that we have Monday might occur Monday evening.

Tuesday we cool down as the low tracks into New England. Again, like last week, most if not all of the steady precipitation would be done by the time it turns cold enough for snow.  There should be at least some lake effect before the day is up Tuesday but right now the air coming in doesn't appear to be as cold as what we saw last Friday.